It gets worse for the government. Instead of being forgotten in the pre-Christmas rush, the Curran report is getting close scrutiny. The NZ Herald Editorial today is worth a read. Overall it is suggesting a whitewash. We quote its final sentences as it raises big questions about Parker's motivation, and also about the state of the public service.
"Mr Parker certainly made the correct noises after mentioning Ms Curran to officials. But subsequent developments do not sustain the argument that his was a passing, non-partisan reference. Contrary to the report's finding, they point more towards orchestration of the appointment of a political ally who contributed to a political agenda.
Nor do those developments suggest the independence of the public service was uppermost in most minds, including those of the unnamed officials who failed even to recognise the implications. Doubtless Mr Logan's resignation shortly before the report's release was meant to create the perception that someone was paying a penalty. He, however, was not even at the ministry when Ms Curran was hired. The reality is that, at virtually every turn in this affair, the public service has been ill-served."
At The Hive we are hearing more noise suggesting the SSC boss Prebble is now mortally wounded, and that the Ministry for the Environment itself might be fighting for survival. This instability and continuing scandal is not what the Government needs at the start of election year.
Dec 22, 2007
Fran O'Sullivan Calls SSC Report On Curran a Whitewash
A very interesting analysis of the full SSC report on the hiring of Clare Curran in today's NZ Herald by Fran O'Sullivan. Fran highlights many of the report's more interesting findings and factual content including Curran's suggested list of champions for the Government's climate change policy - "key players" were Professors Ralph Sims, Jonathan Boston and Ralph Chapman, the EMA, Rob Fenwick (then chairman of the NZ Business Council Sustainable Development), Peter Neilson (NZBCSD chief executive), Henry van der Heyden and Barry Harris (Fonterra), environmentalist Gary Taylor, David Wratt (NIWA), Suzie Kerr (MOTU), Morgan Williams, Alex McDiarmid, NGOs (Greenpeace, etc).
Maybe the New Zealand media should note this list and act accordingly when seeking comment on climate change matters in the future.
Maybe the New Zealand media should note this list and act accordingly when seeking comment on climate change matters in the future.
Two New Public Poll Averages Out Yesterday
David Farrar and Molesworth and Featherston both published their public poll averages yesterday. Farrar's is summarised on his Kiwiblog.
Both averages show the same trend a widening gap for National over Labour and declines for smaller parties such as Green, which hovers very close (but still above) the 5% threshold. The most recent polls have Green below this threshold.
Farrar comments that he expects the Greens to pick up next year as we move closer to the election. This could well happen, but we have not seen Labour (and National) gunning so actively for the Green vote. The Greens also seem to be suffering because of their close support for Labour on issues such as the Electoral Finance Bill. NZ First seem to be suffering the same disease (we call it lapdog fever). When will both parties jump off the lap and start to growl? And might this mean an earlier election than Labour is wanting (at this stage all signs are that Helen is wanting to hang on until the bitter end, and end that could extend until 15 November).
Both averages show the same trend a widening gap for National over Labour and declines for smaller parties such as Green, which hovers very close (but still above) the 5% threshold. The most recent polls have Green below this threshold.
Farrar comments that he expects the Greens to pick up next year as we move closer to the election. This could well happen, but we have not seen Labour (and National) gunning so actively for the Green vote. The Greens also seem to be suffering because of their close support for Labour on issues such as the Electoral Finance Bill. NZ First seem to be suffering the same disease (we call it lapdog fever). When will both parties jump off the lap and start to growl? And might this mean an earlier election than Labour is wanting (at this stage all signs are that Helen is wanting to hang on until the bitter end, and end that could extend until 15 November).
Four New Texts On Agriculture Circulated Overnight in Geneva
The New Zealand summer diaspora means we have correspondents all over the world. Our Geneva correspondent reports that New Zealand WTO Ambassador Crawford Falconer has been busy and overnight circulated four new texts on the possible way forward for agriculture in the troubled Doha Round. The texts related to domestic subsidies. The topics are on the overall reduction of trade-distorting support: a tiered formula; final bound total AMS: a tiered formula; de minimis; and Blue Box.
Those interested - they are quite technical - can download the proposals from
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/chair_workdoc_nov07_e.htm
It is good to see the agriculture negotiations continuing. Trade Minister Phil Goff told one of The Hive team that if the Doha Round was only about agriculture we would probably have a result by now.
Those interested - they are quite technical - can download the proposals from
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/chair_workdoc_nov07_e.htm
It is good to see the agriculture negotiations continuing. Trade Minister Phil Goff told one of The Hive team that if the Doha Round was only about agriculture we would probably have a result by now.
Dec 21, 2007
Pacific Watch: China-Taiwan Competition in the Cook Islands
We wrote recently suggesting the need for more scrutiny by the NZ media about developments in the Pacific, particularly relating to competition between China and Taiwan. We wrote an analysis about the recent establishment of diplomatic relations between Niue and China and questioned how this squared with Niue's constitutional status.
The Cook Islands have the same constitutional status as Niue. And like Niue, China has spread its tentacles in the Cook Islands direction. There is an excellent analysis of this by Poneke. Poneke also bemoans the lack of in depth coverage of this topic in the New Zealand media.
The Cook Islands have the same constitutional status as Niue. And like Niue, China has spread its tentacles in the Cook Islands direction. There is an excellent analysis of this by Poneke. Poneke also bemoans the lack of in depth coverage of this topic in the New Zealand media.
Impact Of The Emissions Trading Regime
Brian Fallow in the NZ Herald has an interesting analysis that suggests that one third of the tax cut being absorbed by the increased prices being caused by the planned emissions trading regime.
Dec 20, 2007
New Zealand Summer Break 2007/08
The Hive team is beginning to spread around New Zealand and the world. We will not be back together for three weeks. The Hive will continue to be updated daily. The focus may be more international than national (there will be a particular focus on the start of the Primaries in the US). Local stories may be more thoughtful as time has been too short or more thorough analysis of some important issues.
We wish our readers a very happy Christmas and a successful New Year. Those in the southern hemisphere, we hope you have wonderful, hot weather. In the north, we hope the winter is not too extreme.
Our full service will resume on around 15 January 2008.
We wish our readers a very happy Christmas and a successful New Year. Those in the southern hemisphere, we hope you have wonderful, hot weather. In the north, we hope the winter is not too extreme.
Our full service will resume on around 15 January 2008.
SSC Report on the Employment of Clare Curran Raises Many Questions
The SSC has released its report on the Ministry for the Environment's employment of Labour Party activist Clare Curran. It raises serious questions at The Hive, particularly over the processes used when employing her. Like others we see a total disconnect between the State Services Commission conclusions and the damning contents of the report. No wonder they released this just as everyone is leaving for their Christmas break.
For example we quote: "Overall, the process used was not appropriate for a situation where the Minister had initiated consideration of a contractor. The Manager - Communications did not receive appropriate advice and support from senior managers about how to handle such a sensitive case. The emphasis on speed of engagement relative to managing potential risks around political neutrality contributed to make the process appear as if it was a scramble to hire someone suggested by the Minister."
The full report is well worth a read.
The Hive team are also interested in the weight being applied to Curran's Australian experience, as supposedly qualifying her for this contract. We have been doing some digging. Here is a taste - Clare wrote for the Australian Left Review in 1991. What is the Australian Left Review? It doesn't exist anymore but it was none other than the monthly magazine of THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF AUSTRALIA.
More on this is the New Year.
For example we quote: "Overall, the process used was not appropriate for a situation where the Minister had initiated consideration of a contractor. The Manager - Communications did not receive appropriate advice and support from senior managers about how to handle such a sensitive case. The emphasis on speed of engagement relative to managing potential risks around political neutrality contributed to make the process appear as if it was a scramble to hire someone suggested by the Minister."
The full report is well worth a read.
The Hive team are also interested in the weight being applied to Curran's Australian experience, as supposedly qualifying her for this contract. We have been doing some digging. Here is a taste - Clare wrote for the Australian Left Review in 1991. What is the Australian Left Review? It doesn't exist anymore but it was none other than the monthly magazine of THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF AUSTRALIA.
More on this is the New Year.
Balance of Payments Deteriorates
The Hive is a little concerned at the quarterly balance of payments figures that were released today. These figures mean that for the year ended September 2007 the deficit was $14.2 billion (8.3 percent of GDP). This compares with a deficit of $13.7 billion for the year ended June 2007 (8.1 percent of GDP).
New Zealand's International Investment Position as at 30 September 2007 was a net liability position of $151.1 billion, 1.6 percent higher than at 30 June 2007. A net liability position means that New Zealand's financial liabilities to the rest of the world exceed assets.
We hope that those who continue to speculate on the value of the New Zealand dollar have a good look at these statistics. They are a further confirmation that the current value of the New Zealand dollar is not justified by the fundamentals.
Of concern to The Hive is the flat performance of goods and services exports. If it was not for a new item - oil exports, there would have been a serious decline in overall goods exports. The field producing this oil is not expected to be producing such large volumes for that much longer.
New Zealand's International Investment Position as at 30 September 2007 was a net liability position of $151.1 billion, 1.6 percent higher than at 30 June 2007. A net liability position means that New Zealand's financial liabilities to the rest of the world exceed assets.
We hope that those who continue to speculate on the value of the New Zealand dollar have a good look at these statistics. They are a further confirmation that the current value of the New Zealand dollar is not justified by the fundamentals.
Of concern to The Hive is the flat performance of goods and services exports. If it was not for a new item - oil exports, there would have been a serious decline in overall goods exports. The field producing this oil is not expected to be producing such large volumes for that much longer.
Logan Resigns
As we have been reporting for some weeks Ministry for the Environment CEO Hugh Logan's position has become non-tenable. Today he has resigned.
Goff Excited By Progress On US FTA Front
Further evidence of progress being made on the US FTA front is contained in an article in today's NZ Herald. Trade Minister Phil Goff is reported as saying that there was "exciting potential" in the possibility of US involvement in the agreement known as P4, although discussions were very much at a formative stage.
The Hive believes that Phil should be excited. Pulling this off, along with the China deal, the Gulf Cooperation deal and progress on all fronts bar the WTO would make Goff the most successful New Zealand Trade Minister ever. Not a bad springboard for the party leadership.
The Hive also takes note of some of Mr Goff's caution. It is clear that more work needs to be done to seal US involvement in the P4. Media should respect this by not building up expectations too high too fast.
The Hive believes that Phil should be excited. Pulling this off, along with the China deal, the Gulf Cooperation deal and progress on all fronts bar the WTO would make Goff the most successful New Zealand Trade Minister ever. Not a bad springboard for the party leadership.
The Hive also takes note of some of Mr Goff's caution. It is clear that more work needs to be done to seal US involvement in the P4. Media should respect this by not building up expectations too high too fast.
Fallow On Climate Change Challenge
As usual their is a very thoughtful and realistic opinion piece from Brian Fallow in the NZ Herald. Today he talks about the realities of reaching a global agreement on climate change.
They Are Voting With Their Feet
An alarming report in the Dominion Post on the number of New Zealanders who left for Australia in the last 12 months. "Almost 41,000 people left for Australia in the past 12 months, up an "alarming" 20 per cent on the previous year, according to opposition politicians.
The figures show a continuing flood of mainly working-age professionals, sales people and trades workers, adding to shortages here."
These are exactly the people we don't want to lose.
The figures show a continuing flood of mainly working-age professionals, sales people and trades workers, adding to shortages here."
These are exactly the people we don't want to lose.
Dec 19, 2007
We Like This Response To The EFB Best
but it might not be legal for us to keep showing it beyond 1 January.
US and New Zealand About To Enter FTA Negotiations
You read it first on The Hive over the weekend, with hints earlier last week. According to a story on Bloomberg, lobbyists in Washington have had confirmed to them the news that the US is planning to begin negotiations on joining the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (also known as P4). According to this report the negotiations might start as early as January.
The Hive hears the same thing from New Zealand and Chile and can advise that David Walker, who has just completed negotiating the FTA with China, will be the Chief Negotiator of the new agreement on the New Zealand side. Walker was the Chief New Zealand negotiator of the original Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership.
What is currently unclear is whether the existing P4 partners will be willing to begin negotiations just on investment. An earlier suggestion by the US to do just this was rebuffed initially by at least Chile. Singapore may also not have been that keen on a negotiation that just focuses on "rules governing foreign investment in areas such as express delivery, insurance and telecommunications" as the Bloomberg story is suggesting.
The Hive hears the same thing from New Zealand and Chile and can advise that David Walker, who has just completed negotiating the FTA with China, will be the Chief Negotiator of the new agreement on the New Zealand side. Walker was the Chief New Zealand negotiator of the original Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership.
What is currently unclear is whether the existing P4 partners will be willing to begin negotiations just on investment. An earlier suggestion by the US to do just this was rebuffed initially by at least Chile. Singapore may also not have been that keen on a negotiation that just focuses on "rules governing foreign investment in areas such as express delivery, insurance and telecommunications" as the Bloomberg story is suggesting.
Good and Bad News For Wellington
Great news that Peter Jackson has secured the contract to make The Hobbit and its sequel.
Potentially less positive is news that former deputy Mayor Alick Shaw has been put onto the board of the new entity that will be the merger between Transit New Zealand and Land Transport New Zealand. Shaw was not a supporter of Transmission Gully, and will no doubt seek to have the funding that has been earmarked for Transmission Gully diverted to fund the work required on the Ngauranga to Airport project that has just gone out for public comment.
Potentially less positive is news that former deputy Mayor Alick Shaw has been put onto the board of the new entity that will be the merger between Transit New Zealand and Land Transport New Zealand. Shaw was not a supporter of Transmission Gully, and will no doubt seek to have the funding that has been earmarked for Transmission Gully diverted to fund the work required on the Ngauranga to Airport project that has just gone out for public comment.
Government's Strategy Is Largely Successful
The Government's strategy of signalling the possible size a tax cut, and having Trevor Mallard both plead guilty in Court for one offence and apologise in Parliament for another has been largely successful in distracting attention away from the Electoral Finance Bill. It is really only the NZ Herald that has remained resolute and kept it at the centre of attention. The Government was also wanting to try to get all of Mallard's problems out of the way before the Christmas break so that they will hopefully be able to be forgotten over the summer break.
Well Said Again New Zealand Herald
We quote from this morning's Editorial "The Electoral Finance Bill's passage through Parliament late yesterday corrodes democracy and shames those whose names stand beside it as it enters the statutes. From January 1, political discourse will be less free, except for political parties - those private organisations that happen to provide the incumbent members of Parliament."
Dec 18, 2007
North Asia Strategic Balance Gets More Interesting
Japan's successful destruction of a mid-range ballistic missile in space adds to the complexity of the strategic equation in North Asia. While the headlines suggest that this is designed to both protect against and send messages to Winston Peters' new best friends (most are shorter than he is) in North Korea, the real message being sent to Beijing. It is also the natural extension of the US decision ssome years ago to sell Aegis (sea based anti- ballistic missile technology) to Japan.
Why should we be interested in this??
Most obviously it might cause Winston's mates to do something silly.
More generally the US, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are immediately involved, and Australia (up until Rudd anyway) was indirectly a participant. Australia is our biggest economic partner followed by the US, China, and Japan. Jump the UK, then you get to the ROK. Skip Germany, then comes Taiwan. Hong Kong is not far behind.
We have critical interests at stake. Peace and stability is best for our interests. Anything that disrupts the balance should be analysed closely.
Why should we be interested in this??
Most obviously it might cause Winston's mates to do something silly.
More generally the US, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are immediately involved, and Australia (up until Rudd anyway) was indirectly a participant. Australia is our biggest economic partner followed by the US, China, and Japan. Jump the UK, then you get to the ROK. Skip Germany, then comes Taiwan. Hong Kong is not far behind.
We have critical interests at stake. Peace and stability is best for our interests. Anything that disrupts the balance should be analysed closely.
United Changes Position on EFB
Some good news today, Peter Dunne and his United Party have made the right decision and will vote against the Electoral Finance Bill. Of course, we like to think that lobbying, and the analysis and pressure from blogs such as this have had an impact.
As we noted a week or so ago, Peter Dunne, also distanced himself a little on the Emissions Trading Bill, signalling a willingness for Select Committee consideration to stretch into the next Parliament - so that Parliament can get this policy right.
As we noted a week or so ago, Peter Dunne, also distanced himself a little on the Emissions Trading Bill, signalling a willingness for Select Committee consideration to stretch into the next Parliament - so that Parliament can get this policy right.
Mallard Apologises In Parliament to Erin Leigh
Trevor Mallard interrupted the debate on the Electoral Finance Bill to read our a short apology to Erin Leigh.
Mallard Pleads Guilty in Court
and pays $500 to a Salvation Army drug and alcohol rehabilitation course.
What Better Way To Distract Attention Away From The EFB? Lets Talk Tax Cuts
Dr Cullen has just advised that he has $1.5 billion available for next year's tax cut, and is even talking about the possibility of a second cut at some stage in the future.
While this is positive news, we find it interesting that Dr Cullen would put these comments out just before the vote on the Electoral Finance Bill in Parliament this afternoon.
While this is positive news, we find it interesting that Dr Cullen would put these comments out just before the vote on the Electoral Finance Bill in Parliament this afternoon.
Australia Delays Apple Dispute Once More
According to reports out of Geneva Australia has not agreed to the first request by New Zealand to establish a panel to consider the complaint about apple access. Australia can play this card but once. A panel is now expected to be formed early in the New Year.
The Hive welcomes this action as a sign of maturity in the bilateral relationship. We are pleased that those worried about a possible political backlash have been overruled. This complaint should have been taken years ago. Of course, if Australia had agreed to a bilateral dispute settlement mechanism being established under CER, then there would have been no need to go to Geneva.
We hope that the new Australian Government, with its huge majority, will take advantage of this mandate to have a new look at all the quarantine restrictions that have been erected to shield Australian agriculture from competition. This would be very welcome in developing countries, and would do much to improve Australia's image in Asia and the Pacific. It might also just save Australia from the ignominy of being dumped as permanent chair of the Cairns Group.
The Hive welcomes this action as a sign of maturity in the bilateral relationship. We are pleased that those worried about a possible political backlash have been overruled. This complaint should have been taken years ago. Of course, if Australia had agreed to a bilateral dispute settlement mechanism being established under CER, then there would have been no need to go to Geneva.
We hope that the new Australian Government, with its huge majority, will take advantage of this mandate to have a new look at all the quarantine restrictions that have been erected to shield Australian agriculture from competition. This would be very welcome in developing countries, and would do much to improve Australia's image in Asia and the Pacific. It might also just save Australia from the ignominy of being dumped as permanent chair of the Cairns Group.
Bali Roadmap Now Published
The outcome of the Bali Climate Change Conference - the so called Bali Roadmap is now available on the UNFCCC website. Why it took so long to have this posted we do not know.
UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Has The Next Government Already Been Formed?
Who is opposing the Electoral Finance Bill? - National, Maori, Act.
Who is raising serious questions about the emissions trading law? - National, Maori, Act.
Have Labour's tacticians maybe blundered and forged what had previously been thought to be an unlikely alliance? - Maybe.
Might Peter Dunne be risking three years completely out in the cold if he goes ahead and supports the Electoral Finance Bill today? - Yes.
Who is raising serious questions about the emissions trading law? - National, Maori, Act.
Have Labour's tacticians maybe blundered and forged what had previously been thought to be an unlikely alliance? - Maybe.
Might Peter Dunne be risking three years completely out in the cold if he goes ahead and supports the Electoral Finance Bill today? - Yes.
Helene Ritchie Spends $8 A Vote
We will scrutinise the raw data in due course, but the Dominion Post has an article reporting on the spending by Mayoral candidates in this year's local body elections. Helene Ritchie was the big spender, but she was allowed to be as by standing for the hospital board as well as Mayor she could spend up to a total of $70k compared to Mayoral Candidate's maximum of $60k (is the law an ass??).
Helene ran quite a few TV ads, including at prime time. We are amazed they were so cheap. If TVNZ and others can be held to this price schedule next year, the restrictions imposed by the Electoral Finance Bill may not be as bad as some are thinking.
Helene ran quite a few TV ads, including at prime time. We are amazed they were so cheap. If TVNZ and others can be held to this price schedule next year, the restrictions imposed by the Electoral Finance Bill may not be as bad as some are thinking.
Interesting Analysis By Colin James
There is an interesting analysis in today's NZ Herald by Colin James. He too tries to select a politician of the year, and like most others he has it wrong - in our view. Colin selects Jeanette Fitzsimons for his award. We disagree with this because Jeanette has allowed her party to fall below the 5% threshold, and to be too deeply associated with the Electoral Finance Bill. On TV last night and again today in the Dominion Post - the Greens (well Russel Norman anyway) are there staunchly defending this deeply unpopular measure.
By Colin's analysis is most interesting in providing reasons why Helen Clark should not - as Trans Tasman and the Herald's John Armstrong claim - be politician of the year.
Interestingly he also describes Phil Goff as the " star of the Cabinet this year and her successor-in-waiting". Given Mike Moore's not so subtle messaging in the Dom Post today, the PM will be even more uncomfortable.
By Colin's analysis is most interesting in providing reasons why Helen Clark should not - as Trans Tasman and the Herald's John Armstrong claim - be politician of the year.
Interestingly he also describes Phil Goff as the " star of the Cabinet this year and her successor-in-waiting". Given Mike Moore's not so subtle messaging in the Dom Post today, the PM will be even more uncomfortable.
More From Moore
Another opinion piece from Mike Moore in a major daily - this time the Dominion Post (no electronic link found yet sorry) is the last thing Helen will have wanted to see. Moore's references to BBQ politics will be understood immediately by the PM - reference to a failed coup against her some years ago, reportedly hatched around the BBQ. This Christmas however, Goff is cleverly absenting himself abroad so it will be up to others to see whether he has the numbers. The PM may well have received reports of Moore and Goff's late night drinks together at Europa Bar and Restaurant in Auckland a few months back.
Moore repeats that the Electoral Finance Bill "has no parallel anywhere in the free world". He also repeats his view that the Government is legislating to stop dissent.
Does Moore not accept the great leader Winston Peters' view that New Zealand democratic principles are different to foreign democratic principles? So what happens elsewhere in the free world doesn't matter.
On Winston Peters there was a wonderful interview on TVOne News last night - a woman on Lambton Quay suggested that he was suffering from short man syndrome.
Moore repeats that the Electoral Finance Bill "has no parallel anywhere in the free world". He also repeats his view that the Government is legislating to stop dissent.
Does Moore not accept the great leader Winston Peters' view that New Zealand democratic principles are different to foreign democratic principles? So what happens elsewhere in the free world doesn't matter.
On Winston Peters there was a wonderful interview on TVOne News last night - a woman on Lambton Quay suggested that he was suffering from short man syndrome.
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