The Sunday Group on Chris Laidlaw's show this morning on Radio New Zealand National was an interesting discussion on the US - New Zealand relations. While some of the audio from the show is up on the Radio NZ website this particular discussion is not there yet.
We don't agree with the Professor fellow from Otago about Obama's foreign policy but do agree with the general thesis that new governments here and in the US in 2009 do offer a chance to set a new direction for the bilateral relationship. In this regard next year's NZ-US partnership forum in the US is going to be critical. The end of the Murdoch influence on New Zealand foreign policy will be another factor that the Sunday Group did not explore.
We remain convinced that McCain would be the best President for our trade agenda - both bilateral and multilateral. (On the trade front Obama and team will be be all over the place on multilateral issues for quite some time. Bilaterally, this could suit New Zealand as we are the one potential trade partner that could willingly meet Obama's expectations on environment and labour - plus we no longer have a motor industry). On wider foreign policy we are less certain about who will be best. The neo-cons are still having influence on the McCain team. They don't much like our attitude to nukes, but they may well like the idea of John Key as PM , particularly if a Key administration has a re-think on attitudes to Israel (neo-conservatism has at its heart the preservation of Israel, bugger the consequences for the US). Obama seems a bit softer on Iran and Iraq, but seems headed for confrontation with China. Anything that is bad for north asian security is bad for New Zealand. This is going to be a big test for New Zealand foreign policy should Obama make it. We see this an potential opportunity.
Showing posts with label Iran Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran Watch. Show all posts
Aug 3, 2008
Jul 12, 2008
Rice Warns Iran
Tensions seem to be growing between Iran and the US. this report is from today's New york Times
The confrontation between Iran and the United States seemed to sharpen on Thursday as Iran said it tested missiles for a second day and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States would defend its allies and protect its interests against an attack.
At a news conference in Georgia with President Mikheil Saakashvili, Ms. Rice said, “We will defend our interests and defend our allies.”
She also said, “We take very, very strongly our obligations to defend our allies and no one should be confused of that.”
The remarks came amid tense exchanges between Iran and the United States over Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which Washington and many Western governments have warned could be used to cloak the development of a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran has repeatedly denied. The Bush administration has refused to rule out a military option, and last month Israel’s air force rehearsed what American intelligence officials described as a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel has vowed to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and on Thursday it joined the battle of words, according to Reuters. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that he favored diplomatic pressure and sanctions, but that, “Israel is the strongest country in the region and has proved in the past it is not afraid to take action when its vital security interests are at stake.”
Adding to tensions, this week the United States and the Czech Republic signed an accord to allow the Pentagon to deploy part of its contentious antiballistic missile shield, which Washington maintains is intended to protect in part against Iranian missiles.
Meanwhile, American and British warships are engaged in maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. A private group of scientists in the United States interpreted the situation as a battle of exaggeration waged by both the Iranians and the Bush administration, Iran overstating the strength of its missiles and the United States overstating the need for missile defenses.
“Iran frequently exaggerates the capability of its missiles, and it appears it is continuing that tradition with this week’s tests,” said Dr. David Wright, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Meanwhile, the Bush administration is using Iran’s missile tests to promote the U.S. antimissile system in Eastern Europe that has never been shown to work in a real-world situation.”
The confrontation between Iran and the United States seemed to sharpen on Thursday as Iran said it tested missiles for a second day and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States would defend its allies and protect its interests against an attack.
At a news conference in Georgia with President Mikheil Saakashvili, Ms. Rice said, “We will defend our interests and defend our allies.”
She also said, “We take very, very strongly our obligations to defend our allies and no one should be confused of that.”
The remarks came amid tense exchanges between Iran and the United States over Iran’s civilian nuclear program, which Washington and many Western governments have warned could be used to cloak the development of a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran has repeatedly denied. The Bush administration has refused to rule out a military option, and last month Israel’s air force rehearsed what American intelligence officials described as a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel has vowed to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power, and on Thursday it joined the battle of words, according to Reuters. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that he favored diplomatic pressure and sanctions, but that, “Israel is the strongest country in the region and has proved in the past it is not afraid to take action when its vital security interests are at stake.”
Adding to tensions, this week the United States and the Czech Republic signed an accord to allow the Pentagon to deploy part of its contentious antiballistic missile shield, which Washington maintains is intended to protect in part against Iranian missiles.
Meanwhile, American and British warships are engaged in maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. A private group of scientists in the United States interpreted the situation as a battle of exaggeration waged by both the Iranians and the Bush administration, Iran overstating the strength of its missiles and the United States overstating the need for missile defenses.
“Iran frequently exaggerates the capability of its missiles, and it appears it is continuing that tradition with this week’s tests,” said Dr. David Wright, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Meanwhile, the Bush administration is using Iran’s missile tests to promote the U.S. antimissile system in Eastern Europe that has never been shown to work in a real-world situation.”
Jul 11, 2008
How Obama and McCain Reacted To Iranian Missile Tests
Both Obama and McCain have been quick to respond to Iran's missile tests. The New York Times contrasts the policy positions of the two candidates
Iran’s saber-rattling missile tests quickly became a flash point in the presidential election on Wednesday as Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama each seized on the tests to try to validate their differing policies on Iran.
Each man spoke of the growing threat posed by Iran, and each called for tougher penalties against the country. But Mr. Obama called once again for pursuing what he called “direct and aggressive diplomacy with the Iranian regime,” while Mr. McCain warned against that approach and said that the tests highlighted the need for a missile defense system in Europe.
It was a classic example of how events beyond the control of campaigns can intrude into the sometimes insular debates of a presidential race. Mr. McCain had dedicated the week to campaigning on the economy, but he tends to talk about flare-ups in the Middle East to highlight his foreign policy experience. He immediately issued a statement about the tests and ended up talking about them for much of the day.
And Mr. Obama seemed more than happy to take up the gauntlet, arguing that the heightened tensions with Iran showed that a new approach was needed.
“These missile tests demonstrate once again that we need to change our policy to deal aggressively with the threat posed by the Iranian regime,” Mr. Obama said in a statement that called for more direct diplomacy. “Through its nuclear program, missile capability, meddling in Iraq, support for terrorism, and threats against Israel, Iran now poses the greatest strategic challenge to the United States in the region in a generation.”
But Mr. McCain criticized Mr. Obama for opposing an amendment branding Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. (Mr. Obama instead co-sponsored a bill designating it as a terrorist organization, but he said the amendment that Mr. McCain supported was too provocative.) And Mr. McCain again chided Mr. Obama for saying that he would negotiate with leaders of hostile nations, including Iran, without preconditions.
Iran’s saber-rattling missile tests quickly became a flash point in the presidential election on Wednesday as Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama each seized on the tests to try to validate their differing policies on Iran.
Each man spoke of the growing threat posed by Iran, and each called for tougher penalties against the country. But Mr. Obama called once again for pursuing what he called “direct and aggressive diplomacy with the Iranian regime,” while Mr. McCain warned against that approach and said that the tests highlighted the need for a missile defense system in Europe.
It was a classic example of how events beyond the control of campaigns can intrude into the sometimes insular debates of a presidential race. Mr. McCain had dedicated the week to campaigning on the economy, but he tends to talk about flare-ups in the Middle East to highlight his foreign policy experience. He immediately issued a statement about the tests and ended up talking about them for much of the day.
And Mr. Obama seemed more than happy to take up the gauntlet, arguing that the heightened tensions with Iran showed that a new approach was needed.
“These missile tests demonstrate once again that we need to change our policy to deal aggressively with the threat posed by the Iranian regime,” Mr. Obama said in a statement that called for more direct diplomacy. “Through its nuclear program, missile capability, meddling in Iraq, support for terrorism, and threats against Israel, Iran now poses the greatest strategic challenge to the United States in the region in a generation.”
But Mr. McCain criticized Mr. Obama for opposing an amendment branding Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. (Mr. Obama instead co-sponsored a bill designating it as a terrorist organization, but he said the amendment that Mr. McCain supported was too provocative.) And Mr. McCain again chided Mr. Obama for saying that he would negotiate with leaders of hostile nations, including Iran, without preconditions.
Jul 10, 2008
Iran Tensions Reverse Oil Price Fall
As we warned a day or so ago - Iran, and possible military confrontation with Iran, will keep oil prices up. After two great days of falls, concern over Iran has seen prices move upward.
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than $1.50 a barrel on Wednesday after Iran tested long- and medium-range missiles, but crude remained far from its recent record highs, boosting global equities.
Iran's test-firing of missiles, including one which it has previously said could reach Israel and U.S. bases in the region according to state media, weighed on the dollar, raising the heat in a region already beset by tension over Tehran's nuclear programme.
The rise in oil followed a $5 fall on Tuesday that lifted investor spirits and helped trigger a rally on Wall Street overnight.
U.S. light crude was up about $1.50 on the day, but its price of just over $137.50 a barrel was a far cry from last Thursday's record high of $145.85.
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than $1.50 a barrel on Wednesday after Iran tested long- and medium-range missiles, but crude remained far from its recent record highs, boosting global equities.
Iran's test-firing of missiles, including one which it has previously said could reach Israel and U.S. bases in the region according to state media, weighed on the dollar, raising the heat in a region already beset by tension over Tehran's nuclear programme.
The rise in oil followed a $5 fall on Tuesday that lifted investor spirits and helped trigger a rally on Wall Street overnight.
U.S. light crude was up about $1.50 on the day, but its price of just over $137.50 a barrel was a far cry from last Thursday's record high of $145.85.
Iran Warns The West
We have already reported on Iran's missile test. There was another salvo from Tehran yesterday - a verbal one.
A senior Iranian official was quoted Tuesday as threatening that Iran would respond to any military attack by striking Israel and America’s vital interests around the globe.
“In case that they commit such foolishness, Tel Aviv and the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf would be the first targets to burst into flames receiving Iran’s crushing response,” said Ali Shirazi, a representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, according to the ISNA news agency.
The threat — which drew no immediate response from Israel or the United States — was the latest salvo in the complex maneuvering around Western efforts to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, particularly the enrichment of uranium.
A senior Iranian official was quoted Tuesday as threatening that Iran would respond to any military attack by striking Israel and America’s vital interests around the globe.
“In case that they commit such foolishness, Tel Aviv and the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf would be the first targets to burst into flames receiving Iran’s crushing response,” said Ali Shirazi, a representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, according to the ISNA news agency.
The threat — which drew no immediate response from Israel or the United States — was the latest salvo in the complex maneuvering around Western efforts to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, particularly the enrichment of uranium.
Jul 9, 2008
Don't Expect A Sustainable Drop In Oil Prices Anytime Soon: Something For Winston To Talk To Condi About
With the Rice visit scheduled for the end of the month we have been spending some time catching up on the latest views from people we respect in Washington. Some observations:
- we feel so sorry for these people. They are so depressed. The Bush Administration can't end soon enough;
- they are, to a person deeply worried about Cheney and the continuing influence of the neo-cons;
- they are most worried about Iran. They see Cheney as up to no good. It seems clear than most of the military hierarchy would resign should an order to attack be made, but the situation might be different should Israel start things off and need help tidying things up or extricating themselves from a mess. Cheney and friends are seen to be encouraging Israel - in direct contradiction to the position being advocated in public by the President (don't be taken in by the Trotskyite US domination and spread of democracy bullshit. Neo-conservatism is all about protecting Israel. The neo-cons turned against the Soviet Union for what reason in the late 50s and 60s? Because the Soviet Union started supporting Israel's opponents);
- so long as an attack from Israel remains a real possibility expect high oil prices to continue;
- a heavy travel schedule and growing concern about Iran/Israel might mean that Condi can't make it to NZ, though her current intention is to come.
So Poneke, don't expect those prices to fall sustainably anytime soon - indeed you might like to fill up at the current price.
And Winston, your task, which if you pull it off would make you deserve to get 5% of the votes in this year's election, is the persuade the Secretary of State to get the President to get heavy with Cheney. He has to stop causing this trouble around the place. He is a dangerous man who can't be trusted. He can't be fired but he can have his influence taken away - ask your Daddy about the influence he allowed Dan Quayle. And the President should make it clearer to Israel that the US will stop any attempt to attack Iran. We can't see how Israel could get to Iran without flying over either Iraq or the Gulf. The US is well placed in both instances to make sure nothing gets through. And if the US does what you say Winston, oil prices might have a chance to stabilise, and even drop.....
We will post more on the McCain campaign in due course. It is a bit depressing also (on the foreign policy front anyway).
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