Dec 22, 2007

Two New Public Poll Averages Out Yesterday

David Farrar and Molesworth and Featherston both published their public poll averages yesterday. Farrar's is summarised on his Kiwiblog.

Both averages show the same trend a widening gap for National over Labour and declines for smaller parties such as Green, which hovers very close (but still above) the 5% threshold. The most recent polls have Green below this threshold.

Farrar comments that he expects the Greens to pick up next year as we move closer to the election. This could well happen, but we have not seen Labour (and National) gunning so actively for the Green vote. The Greens also seem to be suffering because of their close support for Labour on issues such as the Electoral Finance Bill. NZ First seem to be suffering the same disease (we call it lapdog fever). When will both parties jump off the lap and start to growl? And might this mean an earlier election than Labour is wanting (at this stage all signs are that Helen is wanting to hang on until the bitter end, and end that could extend until 15 November).