Dec 30, 2007

Will Support For The Small Parties Rise In The Run Up To The NZ Election?

David Farrar in Kiwiblog analyses some of the comments made by Matt McCarten in today's Herald on Sunday. We agree particularly with Farrar on his comments on McCarten's assertion that "Third parties always rise at the expense of the big ones during the campaign proper." For as start this is not always the case, as has been proved in previous elections. The 2008 election is also a different to recent elections. We have a Government falling apart before our eyes - people want stable Government, and to ensure this, there is going to be a strong urge to put the support for a small party to one side and vote for the party (in this case National) that offers that stability. We don't rule out small parties taking votes from Labour as Labour disintegrates the longer Helen tries to keep the top job, but National will remain strong up until polling day.

It is interesting to us at The Hive how commentators from the left like to talk up Winston Peters' chances of pulling the rabbit out of the hat and getting back into Parliament. We believe that the only way this is going to happen in 2008 is if Winston creates a major rift with Labour. This will probably mean bringing the Government down early (not something that the leftist writers are really wanting). This would serve the dual purposes of increasing publicity and rehabilitating Winston in the eyes of the key players in National, none of whom trust Winston, and none off whom appreciate the lap dog role is he playing for Labour. Winston knows that with support from Maori, ACT and the United, National possibly won't need Winston's support.