Exporters and MFAT officials here in Wellington are sighing with relief as Australian PM Rudd weighs into the whaling issue with Japan, suggesting that the Australian defence forces will monitor Japanese whaling activity. This will make an even more delicate issue in Japan, the FTA with Australia even more of a challenge. Repeated comments by New Zealand Minister Chris Carter in recent years had been seen as setting back chances of New Zealand securing a negotiating space with Japan, but PM Clark has been careful to distance herself from her Minister. Involvement by Rudd in the issue has more than raised eyebrows in Japan and will be contrasted with Clark's more sensitive stance.
New Zealand is concerned that if Australia secures an FTA deal with Japan (and New Zealand does not), New Zealand exports in its third biggest market could lose competitiveness.
The Hive believes that thanks to CER, Australia and New Zealand are essentially one economy. We favour joint negotiations with Australia wherever possible.
Dec 17, 2007
Greenspan On Stagflation And Recession
We know that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's The Age Of Turbulence is being read widely around town - Whitehead even stole a quote from it in his interesting speech last week. We therefore recommend an interview with Greenspan by former Clinton spokesperson George Stephanopoulos on ABC in the US a few hours ago.
Greenspan talks about both the chances of a recession in the US (rising and at 50%) and of stagflation ("economy showing warning signs").
Greenspan also suggests that China is responsible for poor productivity growth in the US. How long before the NZ Government adopts this excuse????
Meanwhile we don't like this:
Updated 0710 GMT
Nikkei 225 15261
-253.75
(-1.64%)
Hang Seng 26653
-912.32
(-3.31%)
All Ordinaries 6332
-224.30
(-3.42%)
Nor do we like this:
"Asia's dynamic economic growth is expected to slow modestly in 2008 as its biggest economies grapple with emerging problems, from inflation in China to appreciating currencies in India and Japan." Full report on CNN.
Greenspan talks about both the chances of a recession in the US (rising and at 50%) and of stagflation ("economy showing warning signs").
Greenspan also suggests that China is responsible for poor productivity growth in the US. How long before the NZ Government adopts this excuse????
Meanwhile we don't like this:
Updated 0710 GMT
Nikkei 225 15261
-253.75
(-1.64%)
Hang Seng 26653
-912.32
(-3.31%)
All Ordinaries 6332
-224.30
(-3.42%)
Nor do we like this:
"Asia's dynamic economic growth is expected to slow modestly in 2008 as its biggest economies grapple with emerging problems, from inflation in China to appreciating currencies in India and Japan." Full report on CNN.
Has One Major Player Given Up On The WTO? And Will This Help The Case For The India-New Zealand FTA?
According to a report in The Hindu News Update "repeated but failed attempts by developing countries to reach convergence with rich nations on the stalled Doha Round of WTO forced India to work for speedy completion of Free Trade Agreements in 2007 to tap newer markets." New Zealand is not listed as one of India's targets for future FTA activity, but The Hive is hopeful that rapid progress can be made towards beginning a negotiation with India. We are looking forward to an update from the New Zealand Government on the launch into a bilateral study on the impacts of an FTA. The terms of reference for this study have reportedly been agreed at officials level.
Update From Fran O'Sullivan On Goff Comments On China and US FTAs
Following our respective posts and articles over the weekend and today we decided to talk direct to Fran O'Sullivan. Fran reports that Trade Minister Phil Goff is confident New Zealand will sign a free trade deal with China before the end of next April. Goff will today report to Cabinet that "very positive progress was made in the last negotiating round which concluded in Beijing last week.
‘There’s still work to be done but we I believe we will reach a high-quality agreement."
The trade minister said while the deal would "by and large" be comprehensive ", New Zealand would not get everything it asked for.
O'Sullivan understands that among the sticking points has been the extent to which China will open its services market. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade expects NZ exports to China will increase by between $260 million and $400 million a year following a deal.
The Government is also preparing to take part in trade talks if the United States opts to join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (known as "P4") New Zealand was one of
the founding members of this group which also includes Chile, Singapore and Brunei. Mr Goff acknowledged he had discussed the issue with his US counterpart Trade Representative Susan Schwab. O'Sullivan understands that there will be an announcement in the New Year. While Goff is not prepared to state specifically that negotiations would be announced in the New Year – he acknowledged that "P4" – which has always been open to new members could one day form the nucleus for a free trade area of the Asia Pacific. Other nations which have expressed interest include: Canada, Peru, and potentially Venezuela and Columbia.
The above is very significant.
‘There’s still work to be done but we I believe we will reach a high-quality agreement."
The trade minister said while the deal would "by and large" be comprehensive ", New Zealand would not get everything it asked for.
O'Sullivan understands that among the sticking points has been the extent to which China will open its services market. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade expects NZ exports to China will increase by between $260 million and $400 million a year following a deal.
The Government is also preparing to take part in trade talks if the United States opts to join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (known as "P4") New Zealand was one of
the founding members of this group which also includes Chile, Singapore and Brunei. Mr Goff acknowledged he had discussed the issue with his US counterpart Trade Representative Susan Schwab. O'Sullivan understands that there will be an announcement in the New Year. While Goff is not prepared to state specifically that negotiations would be announced in the New Year – he acknowledged that "P4" – which has always been open to new members could one day form the nucleus for a free trade area of the Asia Pacific. Other nations which have expressed interest include: Canada, Peru, and potentially Venezuela and Columbia.
The above is very significant.
White House Raises Serious Concerns At Bali Outcome
Comments from Washington suggesting serious reservations about the outcome of the Bali Climate Change Conference show what a tough job negotiators face over the next two years if they are to achieve a replacement for the original Kyoto Protocol.
In contrast to the Bush Administration attitudes to the Bali outcome are more positive here. Minister David Parker argues "it meant the Government's proposals to reduce emissions - including a freeze on new power stations that burn fossil fuels - now took on extra importance."
Environment focused NGOs however, seem less pleased. Greenpeace spokesman Jim Footner said the agreement failed to deal with the serious emergency the world faced as outlined in reports from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
"It is not enough, but it's a start."
Some in the New Zealand business community are more balanced. Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly said the deal "was an agreement to have more negotiations". Nevertheless, it would give more certainty to businesses about a continued path to reduce emissions after 2012 and would also provide a boast to the emissions-trading scheme.
In contrast to the Bush Administration attitudes to the Bali outcome are more positive here. Minister David Parker argues "it meant the Government's proposals to reduce emissions - including a freeze on new power stations that burn fossil fuels - now took on extra importance."
Environment focused NGOs however, seem less pleased. Greenpeace spokesman Jim Footner said the agreement failed to deal with the serious emergency the world faced as outlined in reports from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
"It is not enough, but it's a start."
Some in the New Zealand business community are more balanced. Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly said the deal "was an agreement to have more negotiations". Nevertheless, it would give more certainty to businesses about a continued path to reduce emissions after 2012 and would also provide a boast to the emissions-trading scheme.
Fran O'Sullivan On China and US FTAs
Fran O'Sullivan analyses the state of the China-NZ FTA and speculates on possible developments on the US FTA front in today's NZ Herald. Like The Hive she doesn't quite have a clear picture of whether the US is thinking of a purely bilateral deal or joining the Trans Pacific Economic Partnership (P4). On China, we think that all issues have been resolved and that the talks are substantively over. Fran is suggesting that there is one more round of negotiations to go.
Dec 16, 2007
The News Gets Worse For Helen : TV3 Agrees
OK, TV3 is only predicting 67 seats to National, but is agrees that Key is preferred as PM by more than Clark, it agrees that the Greens are below the 5% threshold, indeed it agrees that all those supporting the dreadful Electoral Finance Bill are in deep trouble.
This is worse than many Labour Ministers and backbenchers expected. Many now face the prospect of a huge drop in pay, some even face a lengthy period without employment.
Anyone for Phil Goff? At least a Goff Prime Ministership would shore up support from Mike Moore. If they want to make a change prior to the election February would be time to do it. And for Helen things wouldn't be all that bad. An early exit would avoid absolute humiliation, and she would have a decent run at the ILO job which comes up in December. Should she want it she would fly in.
This is worse than many Labour Ministers and backbenchers expected. Many now face the prospect of a huge drop in pay, some even face a lengthy period without employment.
Anyone for Phil Goff? At least a Goff Prime Ministership would shore up support from Mike Moore. If they want to make a change prior to the election February would be time to do it. And for Helen things wouldn't be all that bad. An early exit would avoid absolute humiliation, and she would have a decent run at the ILO job which comes up in December. Should she want it she would fly in.
Government Crisis As Christmas Looms
More criticism from her predecessor as leader of the party, followed by dreadful news in the latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll are the last things Prime Minister Clark and her team need as they break up for Christmas.
Mike Moore has had a hack at the Electoral Finance Bill two days before the final vote on the bill. Moore said that the legislation as fatally flawed. He says the restrictions in the electoral finance law are without precedent in the free world. He says the bill is wrong in principle and in substance and will end up doing the opposite of what its authors expected.
The opinion poll is bad news for Labour - down to the mid-30s and with the great leader (politician of the year) falling behind John Key as preferred PM. National with 54% support would get 70 seats in Parliament. The Greens are below 5% and NZ First are on 2%. Both parties now face the real prospect of oblivion at the polls.
Frankly The Hive would not mourn the departure of either the Greens or NZ First, but we have on piece of advice. If these two parties want a chance of being represented in the next Parliament - VOTE AGAINST THE ELECTORAL FINANCE BILL.
Mike Moore has had a hack at the Electoral Finance Bill two days before the final vote on the bill. Moore said that the legislation as fatally flawed. He says the restrictions in the electoral finance law are without precedent in the free world. He says the bill is wrong in principle and in substance and will end up doing the opposite of what its authors expected.
The opinion poll is bad news for Labour - down to the mid-30s and with the great leader (politician of the year) falling behind John Key as preferred PM. National with 54% support would get 70 seats in Parliament. The Greens are below 5% and NZ First are on 2%. Both parties now face the real prospect of oblivion at the polls.
Frankly The Hive would not mourn the departure of either the Greens or NZ First, but we have on piece of advice. If these two parties want a chance of being represented in the next Parliament - VOTE AGAINST THE ELECTORAL FINANCE BILL.
Phil O'Reilly On Oram
"Business is getting fed up with Rod Oram banging on about climate change villains..............Some media commentary has degenerated into name-calling and I believe we deserve better."
Well said Phil. The full letter is on page D2 in the SST.
Well said Phil. The full letter is on page D2 in the SST.
Rod Oram Watch: Economic Transformation Agenda Is Working
Rod Oram opines again in the Sunday Start Times. Today he suggests that there is plenty of evidence that as a result of heavy investemnt in better technology economic tranformation is occuring at the grass roots level but it will take longer for this to flow through to productivity and growth statistics (not a bad line for the Government to use during the forthcoming election race). He describes arguments that government regulation, bureacracy, taxation and government spending are negative for productivity growth as simplistic.
Pacific Watch : Has Niue's Constitutional Status Changed?
We are sorry to be so regularly critical of the New Zealand media (and in this case also the National opposition), but they do continue to let interesting developments fly by with little or no scrutiny. So to help on the analysis side we have decided to run a regular post focusing on that troubled region to our immediate north - the Pacific. We hope that this will stimulate interest here in New Zealand and satisfy the interests of our growing readership in other countries (particularly The Hive's growing readership in other capitals particularly Washington D.C and Canberra).
As a first entry in Pacific Watch, we focus on the announcement that on 12 November Niue and China had signed a communique establishing diplomatic relations.
This development didn't fly past without some scrutiny. Radio New Zealand International reported the development and the views of political scientist and former Prime Ministerial advisor Dr John Henderson who suggested that New Zealand should be worried about this development. Henerson also implies that this was a failure of New Zealand diplomacy as we had tried to discourage the establishment of formal links between Niue and China.
Now it is clear what Niue's motivation was - money. After a visit in the middle of the year there were reports that the price was NZ$1.7 million. Other reports talk of assistance in the hotel and telecommunications area.
But what interests The Hive is whether Niue is actually able to establish full diplomatic relations with China, or anyone else, given that it is not responsible for its foreign relations or defence. Niue's is self governing in free association with New Zealand (this is why Niueans can travel to and work in New Zealand without restriction) . This means that it is responsible for its internal affairs but foreign relations and defence are the responsibility of New Zealand, which already has full diplomatic relations with China. To make things further complicated the Joint Communique signed by Niue is different in its treatment of the Taiwan question to that which New Zealand and China agreed. New Zealand "acknowledged" China's position on Taiwan. It has never necessarily agreed with it. Yet Niue "recognizes that there is only one China in the world, the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China and Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of China." So this is what China paid its $1.7 million for.
Constitutional issues aside, The Hive is concerned that the Taiwan-China competition has now spread to another Pacific territory. Where one goes the other follows, and the result is often the offering of bribes or incentives which tend to destabilise. In the worst case scenario you get a complete melt down as happened in the Solomon Islands. With Niue relying on New Zealand for its foreign relations and defence Niue seemed to be immune from this disease. Not now. And what next, see our post on Jane Kelsey's views on Cuba and Venezuela and the Pacific.
But back to the constitutional question - can Niue have it both ways - can Niueans continue to be essentially New Zealanders, benefiting from the free association with New Zealand, much higher aid per capita from New Zealand than is the norm, from New Zealand responsibility for Niue's defence etc and being able to ignore New Zealand's advice and establish an independent foreign policy? This is what we would like to see debated.
As a first entry in Pacific Watch, we focus on the announcement that on 12 November Niue and China had signed a communique establishing diplomatic relations.
This development didn't fly past without some scrutiny. Radio New Zealand International reported the development and the views of political scientist and former Prime Ministerial advisor Dr John Henderson who suggested that New Zealand should be worried about this development. Henerson also implies that this was a failure of New Zealand diplomacy as we had tried to discourage the establishment of formal links between Niue and China.
Now it is clear what Niue's motivation was - money. After a visit in the middle of the year there were reports that the price was NZ$1.7 million. Other reports talk of assistance in the hotel and telecommunications area.
But what interests The Hive is whether Niue is actually able to establish full diplomatic relations with China, or anyone else, given that it is not responsible for its foreign relations or defence. Niue's is self governing in free association with New Zealand (this is why Niueans can travel to and work in New Zealand without restriction) . This means that it is responsible for its internal affairs but foreign relations and defence are the responsibility of New Zealand, which already has full diplomatic relations with China. To make things further complicated the Joint Communique signed by Niue is different in its treatment of the Taiwan question to that which New Zealand and China agreed. New Zealand "acknowledged" China's position on Taiwan. It has never necessarily agreed with it. Yet Niue "recognizes that there is only one China in the world, the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China and Taiwan is an inalienable part of the territory of China." So this is what China paid its $1.7 million for.
Constitutional issues aside, The Hive is concerned that the Taiwan-China competition has now spread to another Pacific territory. Where one goes the other follows, and the result is often the offering of bribes or incentives which tend to destabilise. In the worst case scenario you get a complete melt down as happened in the Solomon Islands. With Niue relying on New Zealand for its foreign relations and defence Niue seemed to be immune from this disease. Not now. And what next, see our post on Jane Kelsey's views on Cuba and Venezuela and the Pacific.
But back to the constitutional question - can Niue have it both ways - can Niueans continue to be essentially New Zealanders, benefiting from the free association with New Zealand, much higher aid per capita from New Zealand than is the norm, from New Zealand responsibility for Niue's defence etc and being able to ignore New Zealand's advice and establish an independent foreign policy? This is what we would like to see debated.
Winston's Cheque
Audrey Young has written a good analysis of the issue of the returned cheque and Winston's motivation in her blog.
Dec 15, 2007
Climate Change Talks Drawing To A Close
It seems that a compromise deal has been agreed at Bali. Two years of hard negotiation lie ahead.
What Cards Does Helen Have Up Her Sleeve?
Rather than award her silly awards for keeping her party from total disintegration we would have preferred a detailed analysis by John Armstrong and Trans Tasman of the policies or outcomes that the Labour Party might be able to use next year to pull back National's commanding lead. We know that there will be tax cuts, and we know that climate change will be a big theme, but neither will win Labour the election (National will probably offer more on tax, and seems to be in similar space to Labour on climate change). Helen must be planning more. The Hive is doing as much digging as possible and is beginning to dig up some nuggets.
We understand that an early policy outcome for the New Year will be confirmation that the China FTA has indeed been completed (why were all the trade lawyers too busy to attend such an important trade law conference?). Even before the deal is signed in March or April, the Government machine is gearing up for a major publicity campaign on the benefits that this deal is going to deliver to the economy.
We have also been picking up increasingly interesting signals on the US relationship. Aside from the multiple congressional delegations and a high level visit from the State Department in February, there may be an even bigger breakthrough - progress on the trade agreement front. We can't quite figure how this would work given the state of US politics, but contacts we have spoken to in Canberra advise that Australia has also picked up that an announcement might be pending. And sources in Washington suggest that USTR and others appear to be working hard to do something for New Zealand. What form this negotiation will take - a bilateral deal or the US joining the Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership is unclear.
If we are right, then Helen will rightly deserve great praise. This would be a major achievement.
Our analysis of the tea leaves continues. We will report further.
We understand that an early policy outcome for the New Year will be confirmation that the China FTA has indeed been completed (why were all the trade lawyers too busy to attend such an important trade law conference?). Even before the deal is signed in March or April, the Government machine is gearing up for a major publicity campaign on the benefits that this deal is going to deliver to the economy.
We have also been picking up increasingly interesting signals on the US relationship. Aside from the multiple congressional delegations and a high level visit from the State Department in February, there may be an even bigger breakthrough - progress on the trade agreement front. We can't quite figure how this would work given the state of US politics, but contacts we have spoken to in Canberra advise that Australia has also picked up that an announcement might be pending. And sources in Washington suggest that USTR and others appear to be working hard to do something for New Zealand. What form this negotiation will take - a bilateral deal or the US joining the Trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership is unclear.
If we are right, then Helen will rightly deserve great praise. This would be a major achievement.
Our analysis of the tea leaves continues. We will report further.
International Trade Law Conference Ends
Our informant advises that the head of the MFAT Trade Law group Clare Fearnley attended today's closing sessions of the New Zealand Centre for International Economic Law Conference in Wellington. This was good as MFAT was underrepresented on the first day. The highlight today was a recorded presentation from New Zealand's WTO Ambassador Crawford Falconer. Falconer gave a good overview of the GATT and WTO's history and his assessment of where it is heading. His view of the future suggests that the days of the WTO as the place where trade liberalisation is negotiated may be over. He was relatively upbeat on chances of achieving an outcome to the current Doha negotiation but would not say by when, or how big an outcome, though he suggested that the Uruguay Round had been the watershed for the WTO, with the current round essentially a tidy up.
Secretary of Defence In For An Uncomfortable Year?
It must have been difficult having a brother as your Minister for many years while at MFAT, and now that you are a Permanent Head having to convince the Labour Party that you were not secretly a Nat when your brother was one would be a challenge, but now that your son Alex has come out publicly as an aspiring National candidate, life must be even more difficult for Secretary of Defence John McKinnon. The Hive thinks McKinnon is one of the best public servants around, and that there is nothing wrong with having family members who are politically aligned, but Labour is getting increasingly tribal.
Feds Argue For Clifford Bay
In their submission on the Draft Coastal Shipping Strategy, Federated Farmers have thrown their weight behind the idea of dusting of plans to build a new port at Clifford Bay. The Hive agrees. The development of Clifford Bay is long overdue. It would achieve an enormous productivity gain using existing ships. But it would also allow the re-introduction of fast ferries. Why has Wellington business not been championing this move more strongly?
Don't Bother Buying The NZ Herald Today
One of the joys of Saturday morning is reading the latest column from Fran O'Sullivan while downing a good long black at the local cafe. There is no column from Fran today. Maybe an extra long (Helen Clark Politician of the Year????) John Armstrong and a New Zealander of the Year section took up all the space. For the record we approve of the choice of Louise Nicholas as the winner. How she kept it together in the face of such intimidation from that creep Clint Richards we don't know. We would have given Business Leader of the Year to Lloyd Morrison ahead of Henry Van Der Heyden, but what do we know!
EU Drops Demands In Attempt To Keep Climate Talks Alive
The EU is reported to be prepared to accept the compromise text that we reported on last night, without firm targets for emissions reduction, in order to keep the Bali Climate Change Conference alive. Delegates have been working through the night to try and reach agreement on a roadmap for negotiations over the next few years for a replacement to the original Kyoto Protocol. The major difference in the room now seems to be over the role that India and China will play in controlling emissions.
Well Done Starship
We think that Starship has done the right thing in returning Winston's money. Starship rightly don't want to be seen to be party to one of Winston's political stunts.
This is the taxpayers money, Winston has no right to choose who he pays the money to. It has to be paid back to Parliamentary Services.
This is the taxpayers money, Winston has no right to choose who he pays the money to. It has to be paid back to Parliamentary Services.
Dec 14, 2007
Targets May Have Been Dropped From Climate Change Text
Various reports out of Bali are suggesting that specific reduction targets have been dropped from the negotiating text. If true, this is a major defeat for the EU and New Zealand (who seemed to be the major sponsors of the proposal to include these targets).
More On The International Economic Law Conference
Our source has only just phoned in after attending the Phoenix game against Queensland Roar (1-1).
On balance a very interesting day was had by participants at this inaugural conference of the New Zealand Centre of International Economic Law - a very welcome addition to the Wellington scene.
Highlights were the suggestion by Professor Robert Howse of the University of Michigan Law School that the WTO Secretariat Staff be fired, a challenge to this by Minter Ellison's Scott Gallacher suggesting that Government Trade Negotiators were the problem not the Secretariat, a paper by Gallacher on the relationship between WTO and environmental agreements, and an apparently very interesting session on services and labour rights featuring Rafael Leal-Arcas from the University of London, Rebecca LaForgia from Flinders University in Adelaide and Charles Finny from the Wellington Regional Chamber of Commerce. Unfortunately our source was not at this session so has based this comment on chatter at the afternoon coffee break.
The Conference continues tomorrow with a video link to NZ's WTO Ambassador in Geneva and sessions on Implementation and Complying with WTO Obligations, and on Regional Trade Agreements.
On balance a very interesting day was had by participants at this inaugural conference of the New Zealand Centre of International Economic Law - a very welcome addition to the Wellington scene.
Highlights were the suggestion by Professor Robert Howse of the University of Michigan Law School that the WTO Secretariat Staff be fired, a challenge to this by Minter Ellison's Scott Gallacher suggesting that Government Trade Negotiators were the problem not the Secretariat, a paper by Gallacher on the relationship between WTO and environmental agreements, and an apparently very interesting session on services and labour rights featuring Rafael Leal-Arcas from the University of London, Rebecca LaForgia from Flinders University in Adelaide and Charles Finny from the Wellington Regional Chamber of Commerce. Unfortunately our source was not at this session so has based this comment on chatter at the afternoon coffee break.
The Conference continues tomorrow with a video link to NZ's WTO Ambassador in Geneva and sessions on Implementation and Complying with WTO Obligations, and on Regional Trade Agreements.
Government Calls Shadbolt's Bluff
TEC funding details released todayshow a significant cut in funding for the Southland Institute of Technology. Mayor Shadbolt now has to demonstrate that he is a man of his word by "bringing the Government down". We asume that the Invercargill Council will now have to register in conformance with Electoral Finance Act and that Tim's warchest will be restricted to $120,000.
Timing For Emissions Trading Bill
We understand that the the Governments latests plans for the Emissions Trading Bill are as follows:
- Submissions on the ETS Bill are due 29-Feb. The select committee is the Finance and Expenditure Committee (Champagne Charlie Chauvel is Chair).
- The Select Committee reports back 10 June.
- Government is planning enactment of the Bill June/July
- In parallel to passage of the Bill regulations may be drafted so that immediately following passage of the Bill the Electricity Commission can promptly consider exemptions applications. The regulations will deal with such things as trying to define what is peaking and non-base load plant.
Winston Still Committed to EFB
Winston Peters today gave a fiery speech to Grey Power justifying his support for the Electoral Finance Bill which he justifies as follows: "The crux of the debate – which was never properly explained in the media – was that it was never about freedom of speech – it was about the freedom of the of this small clique of well financed, ideologically driven elitists to buy speech and drown out dissenting voices.
It is a new, insidious and imported style of politics and it is not the New Zealand way."
It is a new, insidious and imported style of politics and it is not the New Zealand way."
Important Research on the Food Miles Issue
Trade Minister Phil Goff has today released a report on the attitudes to "food miles" in the UK - why it isn't called "trade miles" we don't know? The message is clear, this is a significant issue for retailers and some consumers. We have to keep up the education process in the UK and Europe and not be complacent.
Kelsey Sees Cuba And Venezuela As The Way Forward For The Pacific Island Economies
More later but we have just been phoned by one of the participants at the International Economic Law Conference on today at Victoria University of Wellington. Auckland University Law Professor Jane Kelsey has just delivered a paper advocating a new model for development in the Pacific, one based on assistance from Cuba and Venezuela.
This is frightening!
This is frightening!
We Hate To Say We Told You So, But...
Have a look at page B1 of the Dominion Post "Climate Talks Face Collapse". We can't yet get an electronic version of this article but there are other versions out there - it is a Reuters report. Try this link - the substance is the same.
Dec 13, 2007
Australia Clearly In Same Camp As US, Canada and Japan
A speech by Australia's new Climate Change Minister Penny Wong makes it clear that Australia is on the same side as the US, Canada and Japan at the Bali Climate Change Conference. OK, The US has yet to ratify Kyoto I but Canada, Japan and Australia (now) have. Australia now has a Labor Government, so this isn't about some grand conspiracy of parties from the right. So why is New Zealand siding with the EU instead of our fellow APECers????
Might it be that climate change has become more about domestic politics than a sensible international policy response?
Might it be that climate change has become more about domestic politics than a sensible international policy response?
Whitehead Fires Shot Across Cullen's Bow
In an unusual move, Treasury Secretary John Whitehead invited an eclectic mix of journalists, Government heads, the Reserve Bank Governor, and business representatives to Christmas drinks. But before the festivities began Whilehead forced the audience to listen to his carefully prepared views (with Powerpoint accompaniment) on fiscal policy choices.
Whitehead signalled that, largely for demographic reasons, the days of large Government surpluses are likely to be over, so more care needs to taken than in recent years on how Government money is to be invested and spent.
In summary he advocated the need for continuing surpluses, but at lower levels than in recent years (changes in spending and taxes should be targeted in particular at supporting growth - ie lower taxes); improved value for money in public sector expenditure; investment increasingly focuses on high quality infrastructure spend (ie investment in those things that are going to help grow the economy on contrast to investment in assets associated with social policy objectives).
The message was clear, there is no room for a lolly scramble in election year, and more policy such as free money for students would not be wise.
We hope that the Minister of Finance has a good read.
Whitehead signalled that, largely for demographic reasons, the days of large Government surpluses are likely to be over, so more care needs to taken than in recent years on how Government money is to be invested and spent.
In summary he advocated the need for continuing surpluses, but at lower levels than in recent years (changes in spending and taxes should be targeted in particular at supporting growth - ie lower taxes); improved value for money in public sector expenditure; investment increasingly focuses on high quality infrastructure spend (ie investment in those things that are going to help grow the economy on contrast to investment in assets associated with social policy objectives).
The message was clear, there is no room for a lolly scramble in election year, and more policy such as free money for students would not be wise.
We hope that the Minister of Finance has a good read.
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