Very interesting Morgan Poll which hopefully serves as a wake-up call for all sides.
The Greens with their consistent and clear message are being rewarded. And it is clear that National are losing votes to Green. The Hive has posted on this phenomenon in the past.
Labour will be pleased but improving only 1% when National are down 7% must cause some concern.
ACT likewise deserve their improved position.
The next couple of weeks are going to very interesting as the effects of the financial crisis begin to show. Unemployment in Wellington has jumped significantly and anecdotal evidence suggests that what has been a steady flow is about to become something of a torrent. And if consumer confidence was down in this Morgan Poll just wait for the next one. Business confidence is tanking like never seen before around the country also. People are going to be looking for leadership, more than they have seen to date. Whoever shows this leadership will win the election. Unfortunately neither Weldon nor Skilling are running for office.
Big swings, such as that seen for National are interesting but don't necessarily mean that much. the people that moved away from national this time are just as likely to move back next time. it is the gradual shifts that are more sustainable. We doubt that the National economic stimulus package has had much, if any, impact on this poll.
Here are the full results:
In early October 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 40.5% (down 7%), a tight lead over the Labour Party 37.5% (up 1%). If the Election were this weekend there would be a hung Parliament in New Zealand with either major party capable of forming a governing coalition.
Support for the Greens 9% (up 2.5%) has jumped to its highest level since April, while support for NZ First is 4% (down 1%), ACT NZ 3.5% (up 2%), the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), Progressive Alliance 1% (up 1%), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating at 108.5 points (up 5.5 points) has risen as the election campaign has begun with 48% (up 4%) of New Zealanders saying the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 39.5% (down 1%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (102.3 points, down 7.6 points) however has halted its recent climb dropping sharply as only 39% (down 7%) of New Zealanders say now is a “good time to buy” major household items.
