This is an MMP election like no other in our history.
What did the winning party receive in previous MMP elections?
1996 33.87
1999 38.74
2002 41.26
2005 41.1
Even the most gloomy of poll results suggest that national is going to break all records.
Trans Tasman yesterday reported that National's support was firming up 2-3 points on where it was when the last polls came out on the weekend. We hear the same. And the backfiring of the neutron bomb might have caused even more support to flow to National. This factor won't really have time to flow through into any polls this weekend. But it will flow through onto 8 November and the special voting that is underway.
The Green/Labour nexus is also interesting. The Greens were rising strongly, then they announced they were going with Labour. Support fell away back close to 5%. We hear it is rising again. This will be at the cost of Labour.
Labour are in real trouble. How will they react? Already Anderton has gone out trying to raid the wasted NZ First 3%. Labour is also actively courting this demographic.
Will the Greens want to stay hitched to Labour?
Can National come close to emulating 1951 (the only election that National has contested where any party managed to achieve 50% support)?
It is going to be a fascinating final 8 days?
