Pacific Watch - Cuba In The Pacific

The Hive has been worried about the growing Cuban (and Venezuelan) links to the South Pacific. This morning Radio New Zealand reported on expanded Doctor Diplomacy from Cuba vis a vis Vanuatu.

Chinese Aid to The Pacific

It has been ages since we posted on the contest between China and Taiwan in the Pacific. Partly this is because tensions between China and Taiwan are easing. Adding Noughts has today written an interesting post on this subject linking to some research on the level of Chinese aid, which may now exceed New Zealand's aid to the region.

Will Winston Still Be Foreign Minister On 26 July?

We think that comments made by Winston Peters about Pacific Island men are not appropriate for our Foreign Minister. Winston should therefore resign or be fired. According to the front page of today's Dominion Post Winston has accused

"Pacific Island men of being useless, prone to "parading around like peacocks" and leaving all the work to women."

China In The Pacific

Gilbert Ullrich takes a look at the role of China in the Pacific in today's Herald.

He concludes:

A large number of the China corporations have state or political regional backing and extensive industrial policies. Since January 2007, the interim Prime Minister of Fiji has responded to a wide range of opportunities given by China to uphold his interim Government, in the face of sanctions from Australia and New Zealand.
In less than 30 years China has become a world leader in manufacturing and exporting. At least for the moment, China appears to broaden the menu of options for Island states, whose leaders are becoming well accustomed to operating in a world controlled by power players.

Solomon Islands: Is RAMSI Doing Everything It Could On The Development and Reconstruction Fronts?

We have been critical from time to time about the lack of focus in our media on our immediate region. Chris Laidlaw has been one of the exceptions. This morning he did an interesting interview with an Australian critic of the development and reconstruction work undertaken to date by RAMSI in the Solomon Islands. The paper that stimulated the interview has drawn a critical response from Dr Jonathan Austin, the Deputy Head of RAMSI on secondment from MFAT. You can listen to Laidlaw's interview with Gourav Sodhi here. For the record, we agree with Sodhi, a land register would be a great way to start the economic revitalisation of the Solomon Islands economy.

What Has Winston Achieved? Resolve.

The Hive is launching a series of posts looking at the great achievements of New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters since he became Foreign Minister. This follows last weeks absurd assessment by the publication Trans Tasman which said that in some quarters Winston is being talked about as the most successful Foreign Minister since Brian Talboys.

We start this series by looking at Winston's strong resolve and his willingness to stand up to his officials. This is best illustrated by his rejecting MFAT's recommendation and instead appointing one of his own MPs Brian Donnelly as the next High Commissioner to the Cook Islands. Apparently Mr Donnelly has strong links to the Cook Islands and will do a much better job than would an MFAT high flyer (the rumour was that MFAT CEO Simon Murdoch had suggested his own right hand man - the person who runs his personal office (yes MFAT CEOs now have a personal staff, rather similar to Ministerial offices) - to take on the role. So certain was this appointment that wider family had been informed etc. including some with strong media connections. This made the cock up harder to suppress.

Anyway The Hive wishes Brian Donnelly all the best for his time in the Cooks (the Dom Post is suggesting that Brian will give his valedictory speech in Parliament this week - get there early as we are sure that it will be standing room only) and we are sure that the MFAT officer who missed out will be given an even better reward. We will watch the work that Donnelly does with close interest. And well done Winston for ensuring that the best person has got the job.

The Battle For The Pacific Vote

Labour won the last election because of three key factors. Noelle McCarthy hoodwinked Don Brash into confessing that he knew about the Exclusive Bretheren pamphlet campaign (we don't monitor Noelle's writings and radio gigs simply because of her accent!), because they cleaned up in Wellington, and because they mobilised the Pacifica vote in South Auckland. Insight on National Radio looks at the battle for the Pacifica vote in 2008. It is well worth a listen.

The spin by Mike Williams could have been analysed a bit more critically. Likewise Winston Peters was treated too lightly. The Hive understands that Labour is facing huge problems with this constituency this time around, in Auckland and also in the Mana electorate in Wellington. Winnie Laban falling ill in election year (The Hive has huge admiration for Winnie and thinks it a great blunder that Helen and the cabal did not want her in Cabinet) could not have been worse timing.

When you couple this with a huge fall in support for Labour in the public service (Wellington Central and Rongotai) and the lack of any National linked bogey men this time around, Labour is moving close to panic mode.

Nauru : A Failed State

One of us heard Helen Hughes (an Australian academic) being interviewed on radio the other day. She was talking about the fact that Nauru has ceased to be viable, that is was essentially a faailed state surviving only on handouts from Australia and Taiwan. She suggested that the best way forward was for Australia to offer Nauru the opportunity to enter into free-association with Australia. We couldn't track down an easy means to point readers to a sound version of this interview but we have found a recent article from Hughes that covers similar ground.

But Nauru could negotiate an association status with Australia that would give its people access to work and residence in Australia. Aid would immediately be focused on education, perhaps including the technical college sought by Nauru's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kieren Keke, so that Nauruans could opt for permanent employment in and hence emigration to Australia.

Hughes said on radio that the opposition to this ideaa comes from Australian officials, particularly those in DFAT who seem to think that the UN wouldn't like such a development.

This seems to be so similar to the Tokelau situaation, where the people have twice said that they don't want change, but NZ officials keep trying to persuade them to move to independence. Why? So that they look good in the United Nations.

Thanks to Radio NZ for drawing this story to our attention.

Well Done Herald

The NZ Herald today picks up on one of the issues that The Hive has been suggesting deserves much closer attention by the New Zealand media - the competition between Taiwan and China in the Pacific and the potentially destablilising effect economic assistance from China and Taiwan can have in fragile societies. Today Dev Nadkarni looks at the implications of KMT (Chinese National Party) rule in Taiwan for Taiwan's aid policy in the Pacific.

While we applaud the fact that the Herald is running this article, we think that the author is overstating the potential extent of reconciliation between a KMT Government and China. And we remind readers that the amount of bribery and corruption inspired by Taiwan in the Pacific was just as great under the last KMT Government as the current DPP Government. So don't expect radical change in the Pacific either.

"Evil Forces" Win The Day In Malawi

Malawi has cut its diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Now only 23 countries recognise Taiwan.

"It is with regret that the government and leaders of Malawi are unwilling to honour their promises to our government and have succumbed to China's evil forces," Taiwan's foreign ministry said in a statement.

It is interesting that this development did not occur prior to Taiwan's elections for a new legislature. Maybe China is so emboldened by the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) big victory, that it will be less cautious about allowing other potential converts to come out of the closet. China has reportedly secured agreement from several more of Taiwan's so-called allies to switch camps, but was wanting to wait until after the March Presidential election in Taiwan for them to defect, lest a mass exodus of allies fuels nationalist Taiwanese sentiment prior to the election. This might help the pro-independence DPP.

US, Australia And New Zealand Criticised For Pacifc Role

Think Tank Foreign Policy in Focus has just published an interesting article on a topic that has been attracting some of our time, the competition for recognition between Taiwan and China in fragile Pacific countries. The article is a good review of the dynamic. It ends by criticising the US, Australia and New Zealand for not making positions clear on this competition:

The United States and other major political players also bear some responsibility. Mixed signals continue to be sent to Taipei, Beijing, and the island nations that are caught in this dangerous political tango. The United States, Australia, and New Zealand, all of whom have enormous leverage over the foreign policy of Pacific Island Nations, should send a very straightforward, defined message on this issue. That, so far, has not happened, leading to that cynical but correct expression often repeated in the annals of political power in the region: "Taiwan is not recognized, but it is encouraged." The exact meaning of this phrase is very much open to interpretation, and that is not how it should be. Clarification on the exact position of the United States (and that of other regional powers) on the Taiwan issue is desperately needed.

Pacific Watch: Taiwan and The Marshalls

It seems that the Marshall Islands are set to stay with Taiwan for now. Presidents Chen and Tomeing had an affable chat and all seems stable. It seems that Taiwan stands ready to bail out the Marshall Islands airline that has been unable to fly for the last three months.

Taiwan-China Competition

Interesting article in the IHT along similar themes covered in recent days by The Hive. One should not buy in too strongly to the Taiwan Government's indignation. The more China acts in this area, the more votes that the ruling anti-China DPP are likely to receive. It is important to look below the surface. We continue to believe that the mass exodus of Taiwan's allies will be delayed, on instruction from Beijing, until after the elections. That said Malawi is looking very shaky.

Pacific Watch: China Sets New Price For Shifting Sides

Malawi has apparently been offered US$6 billion in aid by China if it shifts recognition. So there you go South Pacific Governments. You know the price. Don't accept anything less.

Taiwan Watch: First Malawi Now Marshall Islands - Allies Looking Shaky

The Marshall Islands has a new President Litokwa Tomeing. Tomeing had earlier vowed to cease recognising Taiwan diplomatically and adopt a one China policy, bringing his country into line with most other countries.

Taiwan officials had accused China of interfering in recent elections by funnelling money through local businessmen to opposition candidates.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry is, however, putting on a brave face and is claiming that there will be no change in recognition.

The Hive would like to know whether the allegations of Chinese funding of political candidates in the Marshall Islands elections has any substance. We assume that New Zealand and Australia will be objecting strongly should there be any support for these allegations. Likewise we hope that Taiwan has not been doing any candidate funding either. If such a practice were to be allowed to go unchecked in other Pacific countries, who is to say it won't be a problem that spreads into New Zealand or Australia?

Pacific Watch: Stakes High For Both US And Taiwan In Monday's Vote In Marshall Islands Parliament

The Marshall Islands Parliament will meet on Monday for the first time since the 19 November general election. Neither of the two major parties (the UDP and AKA) has a majority. So the next President will be determined by the votes of 5 independent MPs.

This vote, is about far more than who will be President. It could also determine the future shape of relations between the Marshall Islands and both Washington and Taipei. This dynamic is explored in the attached article from Pacific Magazine.

We repeat the key section:

...., at issue in Monday’s parliament election is the stability of relations with the United States and Taiwan, the country¹s two major aid donors.

The Note government is strongly pro-U.S. But opposition leaders are angry about many provisions of the Compact of Free Association with the U.S., including the details of a long-term deal for American use of the missile testing range at Kwajalein that the Notegovernment approved five years ago. AKA Chairman Senator Christopher Loeak said that an urgent priority for his party when it is elected is to address these problems with the U.S. The Kwajalein missile range issue has been largely ignored by the Note administration.

Both Tomeing and Kwajalein paramount chief Imata Kabua, a former president who wields significant power in the AKA, have stated unequivocally they want to cut ties with Taiwan in favor of China, though other members of the party say they disagree on the issue. This year marks the 10th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Taipei, with Taiwan emerging as the second largest aid donor behind the U.S., providing an estimated $15 million in funding and services annually.

Pacific Watch: Taiwan Starts To Get Really Smart In South Pacific Diplomacy - New Zealand Next??

Taiwan has woken up to its ace card in dealings with the Pacific (including New Zealand). Taiwan is the ancestral homeland for all the Austronesian peoples. The DNA evidence is beyond dispute - except in some quarters in Beijing, and perhaps with New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters who constantly refers to being of Chinese ancestry (helpful when you helped build your political career on anti-Chinese sentiment). Taiwan's aboriginal tribes and all the people of the Pacific are genetically almost identical.

Now Taiwan's aboriginal peoples have not been treated all that well over the last few hundred years. The immigrant Chinese stole their best land and forced them to survive on only the most marginal of mountain lands or on remote, non-hospitable islands. Their anti-Chinese views came in handy when Japan become Taiwan's colonial ruler. The aboriginal people were happier with Japan in charge than any Chinese rulers, and the Japanese made good use of the warrior and sporting prowess of the aboriginal peoples in the Japanese armed forces. Many of the Japanese special forces used in the China war and WWII were Taiwanese aboriginals (for this reason Taiwanese are a bit conflicted on issues such as "the rape of Nanjing" etc.) When the KMT (the Chinese Nationalist Party) fled China and became the new occupiers of Taiwan there was indeed a bit of retribution. Aboriginals were discriminated against in all fields other than the baseball field where they excelled. Then along came DNA analysis and what an interesting story it told. Links between the Maori and Taiwan's aboriginals have been growing in the last 10 or so years. And links are being built between other peoples in the Pacific.

Taiwan has decided to play this card more prominently by appointing an aboriginal diplomat as Taiwan's new representative in Fiji.

This is a smart move. The Hive expects that Taiwan will be developing further this aspect of its diplomacy with New Zealand also. We understand that links with the Maori Party are proving particularly promising for Taiwan. Watch this space should Maori (as is looking increasingly likely) become part of the next New Zealand Government. No shift in recognition is possible, but expect some more balance in the relationship, and more interest from Wellington in Taiwan's security and economic well being.

TVNZ Wakes Up To Growing Asian Influence In The Pacific

We were pleased to see that tonight TVNZ news had a longish item on the growing Asian influence in the Pacific. This seemed to have been stimulated by Ron Crocombe's new book. The Hive team contemplated a referral to this book a few days ago but decided to miss the opportunity. We were disappointed that Ron missed the most interesting elements of this story. The focus is too much on criminal influence and dodgy business deals, rather than on the impact that the political competition is having. TVNZ missed the point as well. They actually suggested that the rivalry between China and Taiwan is a good thing for aid levels and that a lessening of tensions between the two would be bad for the Pacific. The real story they should have been investigating is the impact that untied aid is having. Big cheques have been passed accross without any interest from Beijing and Taipei in how the money is spent. We saw the result in the Solomon Islands with the money going straight into arms purchases. There is also strong evidence that individuals are being bribed. Lets hope that today's story is the first of many and that future stories are less superficial.

Pacific Watch: Venezuela In The Pacific

We reported a few weeks ago on Professor Jane Kelsey's positive attitude to the rising Cuban and Venezuelan influence in the Pacific. A very similar attitude seems to be adopted by leftist groups in Australia. This article is a few weeks old but gives the flavour of this viewpoint. The same website carries an interview with Venezuela’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs for Asia, the Middle East and Oceania, Vladimir Villegas.

The team here at The Hive are less positive about this new influence in the Pacific than Professor Kelsey and Green Left in Australia. We will continue to monitor developments closely.

Pacific Watch: Will New Leaders In Nauru and Solomon Islands Stay Allied To Taiwan?

Taiwan is certainly pulling out all the stops to keep their support. Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bien has phoned both new leaders to congratulate them on their victories and to assure them "that his administration would continue various cooperative projects with the countries" - ie the cheques will keep coming.

According to another report in Pacific Magazine Chen got the answer he was wanting from the Solomon Islands "Prime Minister Dr Derek Sikua told President Chen on the phone yesterday afternoon that his Government’s “Look North Policy” would seek to further strengthen relations with Taiwan. He also reassured President Chen of his Government’s support and commitment to continue the fight for Taiwan’s recognition in international organizations such as UN, WHO and so forth."

Ahead of the phone call with Nauru's new leader, Radio New Zealand International reported "The newly appointed president of Nauru, Marcus Stephen, has reaffirmed his government’s support for Taiwan, ...He says Nauru will continue to be a strong advocate for Taiwan and will vote in support of Taiwan’s cause. Mr Stephen also urged other Pacific countries to either reinforce their support for Taiwan, or to open up a greater dialogue with that country to further cement regional unity"