Nov 3, 2008

Government Expecting Bad News On Thursday

A significant jump in unemployment looks likely when latest statistics are released on Thursday, two days before the election. Brian Fallow looks at expectations from the market in today's NZ Herald

The unemployment rate is expected to jump when September quarter jobs data are released on Thursday, as the recession pushes more firms over the line from the desire to hoard labour to the need to cut costs.
Market economists' forecasts cluster around an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent in the June quarter. It would be the highest rate since December 2003.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said the seven-year run of strong employment growth had ended.
"So far most affected workers have found alternative employment, quit the labour force or emigrated. The rise in unemployment has been slow but steady."