Oct 10, 2008

Second Poll Shows Narrower Gap

Another poll is out apparently - from a TV station we no longer watch because it practices gutter journalism. Apparently it shows National on 45%, Labour on 39% and the Greens on close to 7%. Our comments on the Morgan poll continue to apply. Except we have seen tonight that the international crisis is deeper than we had believed it to be (we no longer see a recovery in 2009) and the domestic impact greater. We continue to believe that the party or parties that show leadership are going to win this election. Another factor at play will be dismal confidence figures out in the next week or so. These will not be helpful to the incumbents.