gbJust back in from a day in Auckland. Spent most of the day exploring views in west Auckland - the new battleground in New Zealand politics. We talked to a few people in and around both Labour and National.
Goff/Street was the most common take on the Labour leadership contest. One commentator suggested that Cunliffe realises that winning a general election might be beyond him, so he doesn't want to put his hat in the ring. Several commented on his relative under performance in his New Lynn seat this time around.
On the National side, there seemed strong support for involving the Maori Party in some way in government. Intensive talks with other parties are due over the next day or so with the new Cabinet line-up perhaps being announced as early as Wednesday.
John Key is keen to go to APEC. This would mean that we will need a very speedy transition. We would have thought that this would suit Labour and PM Clark fine.
Nov 9, 2008
Dalziel Also Wins Big
Again, in contrast to David Cunliffe, Lianne Dalziel managed a big win in Christchurch East.
Her personal majority was 5,545 and she brought the party vote home for Labour also - 14,350 to 11,259.
Her personal majority was 5,545 and she brought the party vote home for Labour also - 14,350 to 11,259.
Huge Inroads Into Cunliffe's Lead - And He Lost The Crucial Party Vote
Those touting David Cunliffe as Labour's great white hope should look at the detail of last night's results.
Cunliffe, as a result of boundary changes had a majority of 11,936 - the biggest in the country in 2005. Last night it was cut to around 3,400. Who by? The policy wonk Tim Groser. Groser also managed to win the party vote for National - 12,634 to 12,221.
What does that say? OK Groser must have campaigned well. But it also suggests that Cunliffe is not as well loved by the Labour faithful as some suggest.
By comparison Annette King had a huge win of Finlayson - 17,204 to 9,358 and Goff won 16,350 to 10,793. King kept Rongotai voting Labour on the party vote also - 14,006 to 10,396. Goff narrowly lost the party vote to National 12,578 to 12,429.
Cunliffe, as a result of boundary changes had a majority of 11,936 - the biggest in the country in 2005. Last night it was cut to around 3,400. Who by? The policy wonk Tim Groser. Groser also managed to win the party vote for National - 12,634 to 12,221.
What does that say? OK Groser must have campaigned well. But it also suggests that Cunliffe is not as well loved by the Labour faithful as some suggest.
By comparison Annette King had a huge win of Finlayson - 17,204 to 9,358 and Goff won 16,350 to 10,793. King kept Rongotai voting Labour on the party vote also - 14,006 to 10,396. Goff narrowly lost the party vote to National 12,578 to 12,429.
Helen Does The Honourable Thing
Not only did she concede but she fell on her sword. There will be a new leader by Christmas.
This is going to be a period of major change for Labour - a leadership contest, and generational shift. And for the first time in ages, we think will be seeing some by elections. Mt Albert and Rongotai would be our picks. Those who missed out on seats but who just missed out on the list - eg Judith could well find there way back into Parliament quite fast - should they want to be there. We can't see Cullen hanging around, and others might want to go also.
The PM has done the right thing for Labour. A contest will be difficult, but a series of plots to unseat Clark would have been even worse.
Radical idea from The Hive to John Key. There are no obvious jobs for Helen in the UN system at present. Why not do a Bolger? Helen would be a wonderful Ambassador in Washington as Obama takes over there. While it might be tempting to send Brash there instead, wouldn't it be better to ask Don to serve in some other way? His skill set is rare and directly relevant to the response to the financial crisis. We would ask him to hang around in New Zealand for a while.
Goff v. Cunliffe. Game on. This is going to be fun to watch.
This is going to be a period of major change for Labour - a leadership contest, and generational shift. And for the first time in ages, we think will be seeing some by elections. Mt Albert and Rongotai would be our picks. Those who missed out on seats but who just missed out on the list - eg Judith could well find there way back into Parliament quite fast - should they want to be there. We can't see Cullen hanging around, and others might want to go also.
The PM has done the right thing for Labour. A contest will be difficult, but a series of plots to unseat Clark would have been even worse.
Radical idea from The Hive to John Key. There are no obvious jobs for Helen in the UN system at present. Why not do a Bolger? Helen would be a wonderful Ambassador in Washington as Obama takes over there. While it might be tempting to send Brash there instead, wouldn't it be better to ask Don to serve in some other way? His skill set is rare and directly relevant to the response to the financial crisis. We would ask him to hang around in New Zealand for a while.
Goff v. Cunliffe. Game on. This is going to be fun to watch.
Nov 8, 2008
Well Done New Zealand
We needed a clean result.
Good luck National and ACT.
This is going to be a very tough 3 years.
Lets hope we can move to a true consensus on the response to the financial crisis and climate change. If it can work for foreign and trade policy why not other areas.
Good luck National and ACT.
This is going to be a very tough 3 years.
Lets hope we can move to a true consensus on the response to the financial crisis and climate change. If it can work for foreign and trade policy why not other areas.
Why Did Franks Leave ACT?
If he had stuck with ACT, worked his guts out, he would be back in Parliament. Still possible (just) on the list, but he might miss out.
Well done Grant Robertson.
Well done Grant Robertson.
95.1% Votes Counted
Looking very bad for the Axis
National 45.52%
Labour 33.65
Green 6.47
ACT 3.71
NZ First 4.23
In terms of seats
National 59 seats
ACT 5 seats
United 1 seat
Maori 5 seats
Labour 43 seats
Green 8
Progressive 1
When is Helen going to do the honourable thing?
National 45.52%
Labour 33.65
Green 6.47
ACT 3.71
NZ First 4.23
In terms of seats
National 59 seats
ACT 5 seats
United 1 seat
Maori 5 seats
Labour 43 seats
Green 8
Progressive 1
When is Helen going to do the honourable thing?
Winston And NZ First Concede
Winston has just conceded on TV. Both for his electorate and Party.
This is a great day for New Zealand!!
The cancer of corruption has been removed from our body politic.
This is a great day for New Zealand!!
The cancer of corruption has been removed from our body politic.
84.4% In
Only Mike Williams seem to see hope. His officials are telling him that Labour can win from the 15% left.
National 45.82%
Labour 33.38
Green 6.44
ACT 3.71
4.28
Winston is gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
National 45.82%
Labour 33.38
Green 6.44
ACT 3.71
4.28
Winston is gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
11.5% Counted
National 48.79%
Labour 31.36%
Green 6.17%
NZ First 4.51% (falling back all the time)
ACT 3.41%
Labour 31.36%
Green 6.17%
NZ First 4.51% (falling back all the time)
ACT 3.41%
Huge Swing Against Labour In Wellington
Much worse result for Labour in Wellington Central, Rongotai, The Hutt Seats and the two kapiti seats
After 5.9%
Maori looking like getting 5 seats.
Labour looking as though they will get 41 seats. National 62.
Guy looks good in Otaki. And Robertson is not as strong as expected in Wellington Central. Hide looks as though he has won Epsom.
Labour looking as though they will get 41 seats. National 62.
Guy looks good in Otaki. And Robertson is not as strong as expected in Wellington Central. Hide looks as though he has won Epsom.
Groser Giving Cunliffe Run For Money
Nationa leads in New Lynn. And Groser is snapping at Cunliffe's heels. This was Labour's safest seat.
These Are Largely advanced Votes
Don't worry about NZ First - these are advanced votes eg old people's homes and hospital votes
National Opens Early Lead
With the first vote count in - 0.6% of polling places in National is leading 45% to 36%. Green on 7%.
Goff Predicts Clear National Win
NZTE staff were last night telling Wellington audiences that Phil Goff is expecting to have to clean out his office "within the week". His staff are preparing to spring into action. Several journalists were present when we were told.
US Considering Trade Minister Visits With Taiwan
This is more good news. These visits on Trade issues should be no trouble under the various understandings reached with China when countries such as the US and New Zealand recognised the PRC. But these visits became less frequent, or were suspended in recent years because of the dreadful relations between Taiwan and China during Chen Shui-bian's rule. We hope that New Zealand resumes such visits as well. Taiwan is one of our top 10 markets.
Ever since the KMT came to power in May, one of the primary goals of the Ma administration has been to mend the Taiwan-US relations, which had deteriorated over the past years because of former President Chen Shui-bian’s capricious and provocative cross-Strait policies.
Now, the US government has shown its willingness to strengthen ties with Taiwan, though economically. It is reported that the US government has sent a message to President Ma Ying-jeou through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) stating that it wanted to restore the mutual visits of ministerial-level economic/trade officials between the two countries.
Yesterday, President Ma Ying-jeou convened a meeting to discuss the matter with top officials from the National Security Council, the Council of Agriculture, the Department of Health, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.Taiwan and the US signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement in 1994, the purpose of which was to solve trade problems and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries. The ministerial-level economic/trade officials had often visited each other’s countries before. However, such visits gradually came to a near halt during Chen Shui-bian’s eight-year rule.
“During the KMT rule, the US ministerial-level economic/trade officials paid visits to Taiwan many times. However, the Taiwan-US ties came to a standstill after the DPP came to power. In the last few years, the top economic/trade official to visit Taiwan was Kara Bhatia, then Deputy US Trade Representative,” said a senior Taiwan diplomat.
Ever since the KMT came to power in May, one of the primary goals of the Ma administration has been to mend the Taiwan-US relations, which had deteriorated over the past years because of former President Chen Shui-bian’s capricious and provocative cross-Strait policies.
Now, the US government has shown its willingness to strengthen ties with Taiwan, though economically. It is reported that the US government has sent a message to President Ma Ying-jeou through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) stating that it wanted to restore the mutual visits of ministerial-level economic/trade officials between the two countries.
Yesterday, President Ma Ying-jeou convened a meeting to discuss the matter with top officials from the National Security Council, the Council of Agriculture, the Department of Health, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.Taiwan and the US signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement in 1994, the purpose of which was to solve trade problems and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries. The ministerial-level economic/trade officials had often visited each other’s countries before. However, such visits gradually came to a near halt during Chen Shui-bian’s eight-year rule.
“During the KMT rule, the US ministerial-level economic/trade officials paid visits to Taiwan many times. However, the Taiwan-US ties came to a standstill after the DPP came to power. In the last few years, the top economic/trade official to visit Taiwan was Kara Bhatia, then Deputy US Trade Representative,” said a senior Taiwan diplomat.
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