The final Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll before the New Hampshire vote suggests handsome wins for both Barack Obama and John McCain. Both extended yesterday's leads. The good news for Clinton is that she should make second this time!
We will provide a full analysis of the result this evening.
Jan 9, 2008
Jan 8, 2008
New Hampshire Watch: Real Stress In Clinton Camp
And major changes in tack may be needed if there is any hope for Hillary in 2008. Patrick Healy's latest dispatch from the New York Times is just in.
19 Public Relations, Communications, and Media Positions at the Ministry of Education???
One of the comments that really irks us here at The Hive is that it is impossible to cut or slow growth in Government spending without reducing the quality of service offered in essential Government services such as education and health. We know this is absolute rubbish but this is a key component of the Labour Party spin.
Katherine Rich has today issued a press release on one area where we believe that cuts could be made without compromising essential services. The huge team of public relations, communications and media people at the Ministry of Education. What role do these people perform? Do they in anyway improve the quality of education on offer here in New Zealand? And are these people playing a completely neutral role, or have their numbers been boosted to assist with the Government propaganda effort in an election year?
Rich is complaining that the number of staff in this area at the Ministry of Education has tripled under Labour. That is pretty bad, but why were there so many staff there in the first place? How could National have allowed six people to be employed in this area when they were last in power? We agree, that there is probably a case for one or two people to monitor what is being said and assist with communications work. But this is an area which will have gained hugely from improvements in technology. There is probably a requirement for fewer people in this area in 2008 than there was in 1999. No wonder New Zealand's overall productivity growth is so low.
Katherine Rich has today issued a press release on one area where we believe that cuts could be made without compromising essential services. The huge team of public relations, communications and media people at the Ministry of Education. What role do these people perform? Do they in anyway improve the quality of education on offer here in New Zealand? And are these people playing a completely neutral role, or have their numbers been boosted to assist with the Government propaganda effort in an election year?
Rich is complaining that the number of staff in this area at the Ministry of Education has tripled under Labour. That is pretty bad, but why were there so many staff there in the first place? How could National have allowed six people to be employed in this area when they were last in power? We agree, that there is probably a case for one or two people to monitor what is being said and assist with communications work. But this is an area which will have gained hugely from improvements in technology. There is probably a requirement for fewer people in this area in 2008 than there was in 1999. No wonder New Zealand's overall productivity growth is so low.
Media Relationship With Politicians
A few days ago Poneke and The Hive had a bit of a debate about the less than critical eye given by some journalists to some politicians at national and local level in New Zealand. Essentially the issue is access. Those given unfettered access get the scoops and therefore don't want to be biting the hand that feeds them. The classic case we cited was Trans Tasman's Ian Templeton and his weekly sessions with various PMs, including the incumbent.
This phenomenon is not unique to New Zealand.
Glen Greenwald from Salon today writes about the same phenomenon in US Politics.
"At The New Republic's blog, Jason Zengerle confesses what is and has long been too obvious to require much proof -- the media is uncontrollably in love with John McCain. And Zengerle's reason why this is so is equally unsurprising: McCain gives them unfettered access, so they love him. Everything is about them, and whichever politician flatters and charms these adolescent, coddled narcissists is the recipient of their uncritical love (that explains much, though not all, of their profound failure in covering the Bush campaigns and administration)."
This phenomenon is not unique to New Zealand.
Glen Greenwald from Salon today writes about the same phenomenon in US Politics.
"At The New Republic's blog, Jason Zengerle confesses what is and has long been too obvious to require much proof -- the media is uncontrollably in love with John McCain. And Zengerle's reason why this is so is equally unsurprising: McCain gives them unfettered access, so they love him. Everything is about them, and whichever politician flatters and charms these adolescent, coddled narcissists is the recipient of their uncritical love (that explains much, though not all, of their profound failure in covering the Bush campaigns and administration)."
Neocon Idol On The Presidential Race
The employment by the New York Times of well known neocon William Kristol as a contributing op-ed writer has caused some controversy. We believe that today is his first column, so we thought that we should give it a read. It doesn't disappoint. He looks at the strengths of Huckabee as a candidate should Obama make the nomination for the Democrats. He also has some comments to make about the Democrats.
Thank you, Senator Obama. You’ve defeated Senator Clinton in Iowa. It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration. A nation turns its grateful eyes to you.
But gratitude for sparing us a third Clinton term only goes so far. Who, inquiring minds want to know, is going to spare us a first Obama term? After all, for all his ability and charm, Barack Obama is still a liberal Democrat. Some of us would much prefer a non-liberal and non-Democratic administration. We don’t want to increase the scope of the nanny state, we don’t want to undo the good done by the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and we really don’t want to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in Iraq.
For the record, The Hive doesn't have much time for the neo-conservatives. We think that have done enormous damage to the Republican movement. Reading this article makes us all the more keen to see McCain do well in New Hampshire. That said, it is best to know thy enemy well, so we will keep monitoring the neocon movement and its influence over respective Republican candidates.
Thank you, Senator Obama. You’ve defeated Senator Clinton in Iowa. It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration. A nation turns its grateful eyes to you.
But gratitude for sparing us a third Clinton term only goes so far. Who, inquiring minds want to know, is going to spare us a first Obama term? After all, for all his ability and charm, Barack Obama is still a liberal Democrat. Some of us would much prefer a non-liberal and non-Democratic administration. We don’t want to increase the scope of the nanny state, we don’t want to undo the good done by the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and we really don’t want to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in Iraq.
For the record, The Hive doesn't have much time for the neo-conservatives. We think that have done enormous damage to the Republican movement. Reading this article makes us all the more keen to see McCain do well in New Hampshire. That said, it is best to know thy enemy well, so we will keep monitoring the neocon movement and its influence over respective Republican candidates.
Paul Krugman On The US Economy
More gloom on the implications of the US unemployment numbers, this time from Paul Krugman:
It’s the latest piece of bad news about an economy in which the employment situation has actually been deteriorating for the past year. It’s no longer possible to hope that the effects of the housing slump will remain “contained,” as one of 2007’s buzzwords had it. The levees have been breached, and the repercussions of the housing crisis are spreading across the economy as a whole.
It’s not certain, even now, that we’ll have a formal recession, although given the news on Friday you have to say that the odds are that we will. But what is clear is that 2008 will be a troubled year for the U.S. economy — and that as a result, the overall economic record of the Bush years will have been dreary at best: two and a half years of slumping employment, three and a half years of good but not great growth, and two more years of renewed economic distress.
The Hive notes that the implications are now being felt on New Zealand's equity market, though today things seem to be more stable.
It’s the latest piece of bad news about an economy in which the employment situation has actually been deteriorating for the past year. It’s no longer possible to hope that the effects of the housing slump will remain “contained,” as one of 2007’s buzzwords had it. The levees have been breached, and the repercussions of the housing crisis are spreading across the economy as a whole.
It’s not certain, even now, that we’ll have a formal recession, although given the news on Friday you have to say that the odds are that we will. But what is clear is that 2008 will be a troubled year for the U.S. economy — and that as a result, the overall economic record of the Bush years will have been dreary at best: two and a half years of slumping employment, three and a half years of good but not great growth, and two more years of renewed economic distress.
The Hive notes that the implications are now being felt on New Zealand's equity market, though today things seem to be more stable.
Taiwan Watch: First Malawi Now Marshall Islands - Allies Looking Shaky
The Marshall Islands has a new President Litokwa Tomeing. Tomeing had earlier vowed to cease recognising Taiwan diplomatically and adopt a one China policy, bringing his country into line with most other countries.
Taiwan officials had accused China of interfering in recent elections by funnelling money through local businessmen to opposition candidates.
Taiwan's Foreign Ministry is, however, putting on a brave face and is claiming that there will be no change in recognition.
The Hive would like to know whether the allegations of Chinese funding of political candidates in the Marshall Islands elections has any substance. We assume that New Zealand and Australia will be objecting strongly should there be any support for these allegations. Likewise we hope that Taiwan has not been doing any candidate funding either. If such a practice were to be allowed to go unchecked in other Pacific countries, who is to say it won't be a problem that spreads into New Zealand or Australia?
Taiwan officials had accused China of interfering in recent elections by funnelling money through local businessmen to opposition candidates.
Taiwan's Foreign Ministry is, however, putting on a brave face and is claiming that there will be no change in recognition.
The Hive would like to know whether the allegations of Chinese funding of political candidates in the Marshall Islands elections has any substance. We assume that New Zealand and Australia will be objecting strongly should there be any support for these allegations. Likewise we hope that Taiwan has not been doing any candidate funding either. If such a practice were to be allowed to go unchecked in other Pacific countries, who is to say it won't be a problem that spreads into New Zealand or Australia?
Water A Greater Worry Than Oil And Climate Change?
Colin James, in today's NZ Herald argues the case. It is interesting that Green groups here are so focussed on oil and on climate change, but not on the serious water problem in countries not far from us. Could it be that it doesn't help their domestic economic agenda??
Climate Change And The Shipping Industry
Michael Richardson, was formerly the Asian Editor of the International Herald Tribune. He is now researching at a Singapore think tank, with a real focus on climate change and energy security. He visited New Zealand late last year and spoke at a seminar organised by the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. In today's NZ Herald he is looking at the impact that inclusion of international shipping in the Kyoto process will have for that industry. This is a key issue for New Zealand and all policy makers should read this article. If we get this wrong, it could impact very negatively on our international competitiveness.
Rod Drury On Impressing Investors
Rod Drury has his third installment of advice for new businesses in today's NZ Herald. Today he advises on how to make an impression on potential investors.
McCain And Obama Open Up Big Leads in New Hampshire
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll shows that both John McCain and Barack Obama have opened good leads. Obama leads Clinton 39% to 29% and McCain - who yesterday was slightly behind, now leads Romney 34% to 29%. Huckabee is way back on 10%.
These are very serious times for Senator Clinton and her team. Can she stop the Obama momentum? Read today's New York Times
A McCain victory in New Hampshire will give real impetus to his campaign and will leave the Republican race wide open. According to the New York Times, McCain is feeling rejuvenated. This must be a worry for his opponents as McCain's age is the major negative against him.
These are very serious times for Senator Clinton and her team. Can she stop the Obama momentum? Read today's New York Times
A McCain victory in New Hampshire will give real impetus to his campaign and will leave the Republican race wide open. According to the New York Times, McCain is feeling rejuvenated. This must be a worry for his opponents as McCain's age is the major negative against him.
Jan 7, 2008
Commonsense At Last On Climate Change
The Hive has not always been enamoured with the views of National's Nick Smith on climate change. We were therefor delighted to finally get to look at a copy of the Otago Daily Times today and read a totally sensible think piece by Nick Smith on the subject.
As usual the ODT is trying to make a buck by requiring people to subscribe online to its most unique content so we can't provide a link.
But we can type our favourite quote:
Internationally, we need to stop kidding ourselves we are world leaders. We need to be frank that there is no solution without the involvement of the United States, China and India. The Bali road map is no more than an agreement to keep talking to try and find a successor to Kyoto. We also need to work closely with Australia in the development of our emissions trading system.
As usual the ODT is trying to make a buck by requiring people to subscribe online to its most unique content so we can't provide a link.
But we can type our favourite quote:
Internationally, we need to stop kidding ourselves we are world leaders. We need to be frank that there is no solution without the involvement of the United States, China and India. The Bali road map is no more than an agreement to keep talking to try and find a successor to Kyoto. We also need to work closely with Australia in the development of our emissions trading system.
The Hive Moves Further Up The Rankings
According to today's Alexa weekly traffic rankings The Hive has moved up from 2,245,750 in the world to 1,172,371. The NZ ranking for the site has also increased from 6,526 to 5,649. This would seem to indicate that we are now in the top 20 most read blogs in New Zealand.
Update - Technorati now has us in the top million on 962,510 with 8 authorities.
Update - Technorati now has us in the top million on 962,510 with 8 authorities.
What Is It About MPs From Dunedin And Political Interference?
As we have been reporting for some weeks the 9th floor have become increasingly concerned about David Parker's performance. In yet another blow to the Government he is being accused again by former Electricity Commission Chairman Roy Hemmingway of interfering. See the attached press release from National's Gerry Brownlie. Will Parker last to the election? Will he stand again?
This incident raises further concerns about the role being played and the independence of the Electricity Commission. The Hive's view is that the Commission should be abolished and its functions devolved to the Commerce Commission.
This incident raises further concerns about the role being played and the independence of the Electricity Commission. The Hive's view is that the Commission should be abolished and its functions devolved to the Commerce Commission.
Action At Last On Saudi Blogger?
Poneke has an update on the New Zealand Government's attitude to Saudi Arabia's jailing of Fouad al-Farhan, Saudi Arabia's equivalent to David Farrar. EPMU are also taking interest. We welcome this but expect the New Zealand Government to do more than "seek further information".
Meanwhile we are pleased to learn that the Saudi authorities have at last allowed a family member to visit al-Farhan in prison.
Al-Farhan’s father-in-law met him for one hour inside at Jeddah’s Dahban Prison where the Saudi blogger has been held for the past 27 days.
“His spirits are high,” said one of his blogger friends. “He hasn’t been told of the charges (against him). He said he’s interrogated for 15 minutes every day.”
Meanwhile we are pleased to learn that the Saudi authorities have at last allowed a family member to visit al-Farhan in prison.
Al-Farhan’s father-in-law met him for one hour inside at Jeddah’s Dahban Prison where the Saudi blogger has been held for the past 27 days.
“His spirits are high,” said one of his blogger friends. “He hasn’t been told of the charges (against him). He said he’s interrogated for 15 minutes every day.”
New Hampshire Watch: Romney Takes Lead, Obama Continues His Rise
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll is out. This showws that Romney has pulled one ahead of McCain. Clinton still leads the Democrat race but now by only 31% to 30%. The momentum is clearly with Obama.
Climate Change And Energy Security
Business NZ's Phil O'Rielly has made a useful contribution to the debate over policy response to climate change and sustainability in yesterday's Herald on Sunday.
Businesses play an integral role in our communities, with their profits and wages providing the resources essential for infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and roads essential to community prosperity.
The money we earn from exports when our businesses succeed offshore provides crucial opportunities for our firms to expand, innovate and employ more people - central to helping Kiwis afford the standards of living we all aspire to.
So it is alarming that when several well-respected business organisations last year raised concerns with how the Government was moving to establish an emissions trading scheme, they were sidelined for their views and - in the worst cases - labelled vitriolic and unbalanced.
Brian Leyland gives his perspective on the Government's Energy Strategy in today's NZ Herald.
He is not positive.
New Zealand would be better off without a strategy than it would be with the one outlined in "Powering Our Future".
Support for it comes from those who believe that economic development is incompatible with the environment, those who see it as a way of making profits from carbon trading, those (like Al Gore and his Generation Investment Management company) who are pushing heavily subsidised renewable energy projects and those academics that see it as a bottomless source of research money and an excellent way of getting recognition, promotion and income.
The Government sees it as a way of making even higher windfall profits from Meridian and Mighty River Power and gaining votes and exerting more control over the economy and our lives. And no one shows any concern for domestic and industrial consumers who will pay more and more for an increasingly unreliable power supply.
Businesses play an integral role in our communities, with their profits and wages providing the resources essential for infrastructure such as schools, hospitals and roads essential to community prosperity.
The money we earn from exports when our businesses succeed offshore provides crucial opportunities for our firms to expand, innovate and employ more people - central to helping Kiwis afford the standards of living we all aspire to.
So it is alarming that when several well-respected business organisations last year raised concerns with how the Government was moving to establish an emissions trading scheme, they were sidelined for their views and - in the worst cases - labelled vitriolic and unbalanced.
Brian Leyland gives his perspective on the Government's Energy Strategy in today's NZ Herald.
He is not positive.
New Zealand would be better off without a strategy than it would be with the one outlined in "Powering Our Future".
Support for it comes from those who believe that economic development is incompatible with the environment, those who see it as a way of making profits from carbon trading, those (like Al Gore and his Generation Investment Management company) who are pushing heavily subsidised renewable energy projects and those academics that see it as a bottomless source of research money and an excellent way of getting recognition, promotion and income.
The Government sees it as a way of making even higher windfall profits from Meridian and Mighty River Power and gaining votes and exerting more control over the economy and our lives. And no one shows any concern for domestic and industrial consumers who will pay more and more for an increasingly unreliable power supply.
More Good Advice From Rod Drury
Part II of Rod Drury's advice on starting a business is in today's NZ Herald.
People who have built and sold businesses will tell you that the biggest factor in the money they receive on exit is usually determined by shareholding decisions made in the beginning.
Rod explins how you might get this right.
People who have built and sold businesses will tell you that the biggest factor in the money they receive on exit is usually determined by shareholding decisions made in the beginning.
Rod explins how you might get this right.
Upward Pressure On Australian Interest Rates
The Dominion Post doesn't have a strong reputation for running good business stories on Mondays but the article carried today on the Australian economy is worth a read from both an economic and political perspective. Governments this side of the Tasman have much the same balancing act to perform. We agree that Rudd has to go ahead with his tax cut or else he will be political dog tucker.
Jan 6, 2008
Have Helen And Winston Done A Dirty Deal Over Tauranga?
One of the developments we missed here at The Hive in the run up to Christmas was the confirmation by Labour that Anne Pankhurst has been selected as its candidate to run for Tauranga. The decision seems to have been made around 17 or 18 December.
Pankhurst is a defeated council candidate in the October local body elections. She was an incumbent Councillor we believe, so the loss is more notable.
We had heard in November that Pankhurst was going to be the candidate - apparently this was arranged personally by Helen and the 9th floor team. There were no other candidates putting their names forward for selection. But we also heard that Pankhurst was getting the wobbles and that she might be putting out feelers to National to see whether they might be interested in her, should Clarkson decide not to stand. Clearly National were not interested.
The significance of this decision is that there is a lot of baggage associated with this candidate. One example appeared straight after her nomination. She appears to have made some false claims in the CV used when running for Council. See the attached from the Bay of Plenty Times. She does not have a hope of winning this seat.
Labour clearly doesn't feel comfortable with not running a candidate in Tauranga, but clearly doesn't want to be seen to be competing too seriously with Winston in this seat. People might recall that pretty serious candidates have been run in the past by Labour against him. Why not this time? Because with the loss of any prospect of support from Maori, and with the Greens in real trouble, Labour needs Winston and a few NZ First people back into the next Parliament to give them any hope of holding onto power.
But there is a risk here, for both Winston and Labour. We wrote this analysis a month ago. It still holds true:
Facing the prospect of political oblivion, and with no savings to speak of, NZ First Leader, Foreign Minister, and Government lapdog Winston Peters is reported to have decided to run again for his old seat of Tauranga. Winston lost this seat to National's Bob Clarkson at the last election. Things will be difficult this time around too Winston, particularly if Labour tries to make it easy for you by not standing, or by standing a plonker. This will make it clear to all that a vote for Winston or NZ First is in fact a vote for Labour. Moreover, with most of your original constituency pushing up daisies, or thoroughly pissed off that you misled them over the Super Gold Card, what are you going to run on?
Pankhurst is a defeated council candidate in the October local body elections. She was an incumbent Councillor we believe, so the loss is more notable.
We had heard in November that Pankhurst was going to be the candidate - apparently this was arranged personally by Helen and the 9th floor team. There were no other candidates putting their names forward for selection. But we also heard that Pankhurst was getting the wobbles and that she might be putting out feelers to National to see whether they might be interested in her, should Clarkson decide not to stand. Clearly National were not interested.
The significance of this decision is that there is a lot of baggage associated with this candidate. One example appeared straight after her nomination. She appears to have made some false claims in the CV used when running for Council. See the attached from the Bay of Plenty Times. She does not have a hope of winning this seat.
Labour clearly doesn't feel comfortable with not running a candidate in Tauranga, but clearly doesn't want to be seen to be competing too seriously with Winston in this seat. People might recall that pretty serious candidates have been run in the past by Labour against him. Why not this time? Because with the loss of any prospect of support from Maori, and with the Greens in real trouble, Labour needs Winston and a few NZ First people back into the next Parliament to give them any hope of holding onto power.
But there is a risk here, for both Winston and Labour. We wrote this analysis a month ago. It still holds true:
Facing the prospect of political oblivion, and with no savings to speak of, NZ First Leader, Foreign Minister, and Government lapdog Winston Peters is reported to have decided to run again for his old seat of Tauranga. Winston lost this seat to National's Bob Clarkson at the last election. Things will be difficult this time around too Winston, particularly if Labour tries to make it easy for you by not standing, or by standing a plonker. This will make it clear to all that a vote for Winston or NZ First is in fact a vote for Labour. Moreover, with most of your original constituency pushing up daisies, or thoroughly pissed off that you misled them over the Super Gold Card, what are you going to run on?
Alarm Bells Ringing Over US Economic Performance
Higher unemployment and lower job creation figures in the US have increased concerns about a possible recession in the world's largest economy. This is potentially bad for New Zealand exporters - the US is our second biggest market. An interest rate cut in the US to try and stave off recession would also be bad here as it might increase the value of the New Zealand dollar as international investors chase a widening interest rate differential between US interest rates and those in New Zealand. This article is a good summary of the situation in the US.
New Hampshire Watch: Clinton Fighting For Survival, McCain Could Do Well
Patrick Healy and John Broder report in today's New York Times on the Clinton campaign.
Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton have been in career-threatening scrapes before, but never quite like the one they face in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, when nothing less than their would-be dynasty will be on the line.
In trying to battle back from her loss in the Iowa caucuses to Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, Mrs. Clinton is recalibrating her message in hopes of producing Comeback Kid: The Sequel — achieving the reversal of fortune her husband pulled off with his second-place finish here in the Democratic nomination contest in 1992.
Meanwhile Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse argue in the same issue of the New York Times that McCain may benefit from Huckabee's jolt to the Republican Party.
Mike Huckabee’s defeat of Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses jolted a Republican Party establishment already distressed about the state of its presidential field.
But out of the turmoil may rise yet another opportunity for Senator John McCain of Arizona, whose candidacy all but collapsed last year.
If only by default, Mr. McCain is getting yet another look and appears to be in a strong position competing against a weakened Mr. Romney in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
Mr. McCain is the latest beneficiary of the continuing upheaval in the Republican field that has seen nearly all of the candidates rising at various points. Among them were Mr. McCain, former Senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee and Rudolph W. Giuliani, a former mayor of New York.
Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton have been in career-threatening scrapes before, but never quite like the one they face in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, when nothing less than their would-be dynasty will be on the line.
In trying to battle back from her loss in the Iowa caucuses to Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, Mrs. Clinton is recalibrating her message in hopes of producing Comeback Kid: The Sequel — achieving the reversal of fortune her husband pulled off with his second-place finish here in the Democratic nomination contest in 1992.
Meanwhile Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse argue in the same issue of the New York Times that McCain may benefit from Huckabee's jolt to the Republican Party.
Mike Huckabee’s defeat of Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses jolted a Republican Party establishment already distressed about the state of its presidential field.
But out of the turmoil may rise yet another opportunity for Senator John McCain of Arizona, whose candidacy all but collapsed last year.
If only by default, Mr. McCain is getting yet another look and appears to be in a strong position competing against a weakened Mr. Romney in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
Mr. McCain is the latest beneficiary of the continuing upheaval in the Republican field that has seen nearly all of the candidates rising at various points. Among them were Mr. McCain, former Senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee and Rudolph W. Giuliani, a former mayor of New York.
Iowa Beginning To Impact On New Hampshire
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll for New Hampshire shows Clinton steady on 32% but Obama boosted to 28%. On the Republican side, McCain still leads but he is down to 32%. Huckabee's support is rising. He is still in third place but has 12% support. Romney is second on 30%.
Trotter See EFA As Labour's Salvation
In the Sunday Star Times Chris Trotter takes a different tack to McCarten. He sees the EFA as boosting support for Labour and restricting National's ability to campaign. He also has unkind things to say about Kiwiblog readers.
"The curbs on "third parties" imposed by the Electoral Finance Act will expose serious weaknesses in the campaigning ability of a National Party operating without the assistance of powerful extra-parliamentary allies.
Significant polling reverses for National will provoke elements of the news media especially the New Zealand Herald into taking up the role formerly played by third parties.
Extreme partisan media campaigning will provoke a backlash from left-leaning readers, listeners and viewers.
Labour and its allies will harness this "anti-establishment" backlash in a grass-roots campaign of "The People versus The Wreckers".
National receives more votes than Labour, but is unable to form a government Labour wins a fourth term in alliance with the Progressives, the Greens and the Maori Party. "A silver and a bronze beat the gold"."
As proof of the fact that we are non-partisan here at The Hive, we suggest to all Labour people that they take more heed of Moore and McCarten than Trotter. However, if we were campaigning for a National victory we would tell Labour to relax and believe Trotter's vision.
Update: From the mouths of babes...
One of The Hive team has a teenage son. He has just finished reading the Trotter article. His reaction: "Trotter is living in la la land".
"The curbs on "third parties" imposed by the Electoral Finance Act will expose serious weaknesses in the campaigning ability of a National Party operating without the assistance of powerful extra-parliamentary allies.
Significant polling reverses for National will provoke elements of the news media especially the New Zealand Herald into taking up the role formerly played by third parties.
Extreme partisan media campaigning will provoke a backlash from left-leaning readers, listeners and viewers.
Labour and its allies will harness this "anti-establishment" backlash in a grass-roots campaign of "The People versus The Wreckers".
National receives more votes than Labour, but is unable to form a government Labour wins a fourth term in alliance with the Progressives, the Greens and the Maori Party. "A silver and a bronze beat the gold"."
As proof of the fact that we are non-partisan here at The Hive, we suggest to all Labour people that they take more heed of Moore and McCarten than Trotter. However, if we were campaigning for a National victory we would tell Labour to relax and believe Trotter's vision.
Update: From the mouths of babes...
One of The Hive team has a teenage son. He has just finished reading the Trotter article. His reaction: "Trotter is living in la la land".
McCarten Sees Change To EFA Essential If Labour Is To Win In 2008
In an opinion piece in today's Herald on Sunday Matt McCarten is painting a gloomy picture for Labour at the start of election year. Already behind at the end of 2007, McCarten sees even worse ahead thanks to the Electoral Finance Act.
"I agree with former Labour leader Mike Moore, when he says the new laws are badly constructed and target the wrong problems. It is clear the print media is going to run a year-long campaign opposing this legislation and will highlight breaches. I can't think of another time the national media was so united in a political campaign. It's extraordinary that Labour has put itself in this position.
A political colleague of mine told me on the eve of the bill's passing that if Labour had any hope of retaining the Treasury benches, it must pull it"
And like Moore, McCarten thinks that Labour might have to make changes prior to the election.
"It's hard to see how Labour can withstand it. The Government no doubt feels it has no option other than to battle on and hope for the best.
But if the campaign increases and more people refuse to comply with the new electoral law, what can it do? If the police refuse to charge perpetrators, the law will become a joke. On the other hand, if someone is charged, it will create a platform for political martyrs and the subsequent fallout will hurt Labour.
If the opposition campaign intensifies, Labour may well be forced to repeal the act. That would be humiliating but I suspect that, left unchecked, the electoral laws controversy fanned by the media will dominate all other politics this year, preventing Labour from getting any new policy initiatives or election messages up. Given its current polling this will hurt the party badly."
And...
"What is worrying for Labour is that it is already behind National a year out from the election. Unless it gets a clear run to set the agenda, the party knows it will remain where it is.
In the next few months, political survival may focus their minds. If face-saving and practicality does not involve a full repeal of this law, they should at least address the more draconian parts of it.
If they don't, the legislation designed to protect them from their political opponents could well be what tips them out of office on election day."
The Hive team don't always agree with Matt McCarten, but in this case we do. We recommend his opinion piece today to all Labour MPs, and their political support teams.
"I agree with former Labour leader Mike Moore, when he says the new laws are badly constructed and target the wrong problems. It is clear the print media is going to run a year-long campaign opposing this legislation and will highlight breaches. I can't think of another time the national media was so united in a political campaign. It's extraordinary that Labour has put itself in this position.
A political colleague of mine told me on the eve of the bill's passing that if Labour had any hope of retaining the Treasury benches, it must pull it"
And like Moore, McCarten thinks that Labour might have to make changes prior to the election.
"It's hard to see how Labour can withstand it. The Government no doubt feels it has no option other than to battle on and hope for the best.
But if the campaign increases and more people refuse to comply with the new electoral law, what can it do? If the police refuse to charge perpetrators, the law will become a joke. On the other hand, if someone is charged, it will create a platform for political martyrs and the subsequent fallout will hurt Labour.
If the opposition campaign intensifies, Labour may well be forced to repeal the act. That would be humiliating but I suspect that, left unchecked, the electoral laws controversy fanned by the media will dominate all other politics this year, preventing Labour from getting any new policy initiatives or election messages up. Given its current polling this will hurt the party badly."
And...
"What is worrying for Labour is that it is already behind National a year out from the election. Unless it gets a clear run to set the agenda, the party knows it will remain where it is.
In the next few months, political survival may focus their minds. If face-saving and practicality does not involve a full repeal of this law, they should at least address the more draconian parts of it.
If they don't, the legislation designed to protect them from their political opponents could well be what tips them out of office on election day."
The Hive team don't always agree with Matt McCarten, but in this case we do. We recommend his opinion piece today to all Labour MPs, and their political support teams.
Jan 5, 2008
New Zealand Support For Freedom Of Expression
We have not forgotten the fate of the jailed Saudi blogger. However, the New Zealand Government still does not appear to have done anything to support his release (in sharp contrast to the US Government). We have today checked all the websites we could think of - but still no statements............
A number of comments on other blogs talk about the possibility of there being no one at work to write the required statements and instructions messages to our Embassy in Saudi. Rubbish. Have a look at the statements made on Pakistan and Kenya. MFAT never sleeps.
A number of comments on other blogs talk about the possibility of there being no one at work to write the required statements and instructions messages to our Embassy in Saudi. Rubbish. Have a look at the statements made on Pakistan and Kenya. MFAT never sleeps.
McCain And Clinton Lead Polls in New Hampshire
One of the lessons from Iowa was that the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll is pretty good.
So what does this poll say today about the race in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats:
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Edwards 20%
For the Republicans:
McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 10%
Good news for Clinton and McCain? Yes, but this poll, while up to date (it includes responses taken while Iowa was voting), will not have any reflection of the Iowa effect. New Hampshire Republicans and Democrats will now be reflecting on the Iowa result. It might cause them to change positions. Who knows, the average New Hampshire resident is pretty independent in thinking so it might have only limited impact.
So what does this poll say today about the race in New Hampshire.
For the Democrats:
Clinton 34%
Obama 26%
Edwards 20%
For the Republicans:
McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 10%
Good news for Clinton and McCain? Yes, but this poll, while up to date (it includes responses taken while Iowa was voting), will not have any reflection of the Iowa effect. New Hampshire Republicans and Democrats will now be reflecting on the Iowa result. It might cause them to change positions. Who knows, the average New Hampshire resident is pretty independent in thinking so it might have only limited impact.
Taiwan: New Zealand Not Only Country To Reject Parris Chang
According to Pansy Wong, Peter Dunne and some others close to or from the New Zealand Taiwan community, New Zealand demonstrated a couple of years ago the extent to which it has allowed its foreign policy to be dictated by Beijing by rejecting Taiwan's nominee as the next representative in New Zealand. Taiwan wanted to send a well known former parliamentarian and former Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Council Parris Chang. But New Zealand said no. Too controversial (too much associated with pro-Taiwan independence views). The Hive is unaware of this ever happening before in New Zealand. The move received no (not that we saw anyway) media time, at the time, in New Zealand.
According to a report we read today from Taipei it seems that Chang has been rejected by Ireland as well.
The same report confirms the news we posted recently about plans for Taiwan to send an aboriginal as it next representative in Fiji.
According to a report we read today from Taipei it seems that Chang has been rejected by Ireland as well.
The same report confirms the news we posted recently about plans for Taiwan to send an aboriginal as it next representative in Fiji.
Taiwan About To Lose Another Ally?
It seems that Malawi's diplomatic relations with Taiwan are looking shaky. This AP report explains why.
As we have reported before, Beijing is being a bit more sensitive on stealing Taiwanese "allies" at present as it does not want to increase Taiwanese nationalist sentiment in the run up to a possible referndum on UN membership in Taiwan. It will be interesting to see whether Malawi stays in the Taiwan camp until the referendum.
As we have reported before, Beijing is being a bit more sensitive on stealing Taiwanese "allies" at present as it does not want to increase Taiwanese nationalist sentiment in the run up to a possible referndum on UN membership in Taiwan. It will be interesting to see whether Malawi stays in the Taiwan camp until the referendum.
NZ Blog Rankings
Tumeke! has set up a great new blog to rank the NZ Blogsites.
We are great believers in benchmarking in the business world. We have been using Technorati as a bit of guide since we got started at the end of November, but this new site looks a much better tool. At present we are outside the top 100, but this is due to so little being known about us. We actually think we are doing pretty well according to the criteria being used.
For the record - and we will keep readers updated, here are a few of our metrics:
Current weekly Alexa Traffic Ranking NZ Rank 6,526 Global Rank 2,245,730
Average daily unique visitors: 90 (including holidays) average over the past 7 days
Technorati rank: 1,212,405 Authorities 6 (we know this is about to increase, Technorati are a bit behind)
We don't know our The Truth Laid Bear score: But lets guess 6
Average number of weekly posts: 43 (since we started 5 weeks ago)
So using the Tumeke! formula we would be 90+6+6+43=145
That would put The Hive in the top 40. More work to do, but not a bad start.
We are great believers in benchmarking in the business world. We have been using Technorati as a bit of guide since we got started at the end of November, but this new site looks a much better tool. At present we are outside the top 100, but this is due to so little being known about us. We actually think we are doing pretty well according to the criteria being used.
For the record - and we will keep readers updated, here are a few of our metrics:
Current weekly Alexa Traffic Ranking NZ Rank 6,526 Global Rank 2,245,730
Average daily unique visitors: 90 (including holidays) average over the past 7 days
Technorati rank: 1,212,405 Authorities 6 (we know this is about to increase, Technorati are a bit behind)
We don't know our The Truth Laid Bear score: But lets guess 6
Average number of weekly posts: 43 (since we started 5 weeks ago)
So using the Tumeke! formula we would be 90+6+6+43=145
That would put The Hive in the top 40. More work to do, but not a bad start.
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