Regular readers of The Hive will not the focus we have been giving to Patrick Healy's work for the New York Times. This is his full analysis of the Iowa result for today's NYT. The article begins:
"The Democratic and Republican establishments and their presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Gov. Mitt Romney, were brought low in Iowa on Thursday night, shaken seriously by two national newcomers who won decisively on messages of insurgency and change."
This story by Adam Nagourney, also from the NYT, is also a good summary of the results.
Jan 5, 2008
Dominion Post Fails To Read Curran Report
The Dominion Post has another article with sickly positive views by so called climate change expert Jonathan Boston. Does Paul Easton not realise that Boston was one of the early cheerleaders identified by Curran for the Government propaganda effort? Have Boston's propaganda exercises not been funded by Government money? Why does the Dom Post feel the need to become part of this propaganda effort? Why don't we have proper jouranlism in New Zealand?
Actually Noelle McCarthy Is Worth A Read
She doesn't like the implications text messaging might have for New Zealand English. We actually agree fully (some bloggers - and providers of news media Internet sites as defined by the Electoral Finance Act 2007 - will not).
We agree in particular with the following:
"I object to them on the grounds that they're ugly firstly, but also, more importantly, because I think they constitute a threat to the life of language.
It's hard enough in modern New Zealand to find a man who's either capable, or willing, to express himself on any subject, besides possibly sport. I can't see how allowing teenagers to hide behind half-words, rather than actually learning how to use language, will improve matters any."
We have also been enjoying Noelle on National Radio (10-12) in recent days.
We agree in particular with the following:
"I object to them on the grounds that they're ugly firstly, but also, more importantly, because I think they constitute a threat to the life of language.
It's hard enough in modern New Zealand to find a man who's either capable, or willing, to express himself on any subject, besides possibly sport. I can't see how allowing teenagers to hide behind half-words, rather than actually learning how to use language, will improve matters any."
We have also been enjoying Noelle on National Radio (10-12) in recent days.
What Won't Work When Starting A High Tech Business In New Zealand
Business advisory services have some of their busiest times of the year in mid-January. While sitting on the beach people tend to have new ideas, or resolve to start off in new business directions. They want to test these thoughts or ideas out on a third party. In the only opinion article worth reading in today's NZ Herald Wellingtonian Rod Drury has some helpful advice about what won't work in the high tech start-up arena.
Jan 4, 2008
What The Iowa Result Means
Ok, the results are still coming in, but we don't see too much chance of too radical a change. Clinton may just edge out Edwards and McCain might still beat Thompson.
One should not draw too many conclusions from the Iowa caucuses. They are not a reliable predictor of the final choices for either party. That said, there has been more scrutiny of the Iowa vote than ever before, and the results could have real influence over the momentum of various campaigns for forthcoming primaries - particularly New Hampshire.
Our first clear conclusion at The Hive is that the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby running poll is a very accurate indicator of the final result. We will keep using it as our preferred indicator.
Second, we conclude that Senator Clinton is in trouble. The pressure on her in New Hampshire is now immense.
Third, both Obama and Edwards will be delighted. This result will add real impetus to both campaigns.
Fourth, given the closeness of the race, Richardson will have to re-think tactics. His chances of getting the Vice President's slot might be better if he throws his towel in now and endorses someone. The question is who? Clinton might now be too risky a bet.
For McCain, it pretty much hangs on New Hampshire. He needs to do well there. If it isn't first place he needs a close second. Giuliani might like reflect on his future. He is taking some of McCain's vote. For him, Florida is key. For him, a failure to win Florida - where he has been spending all hiss time and money - will be the like the humiliation being felt by Romney.
The religious right will be thanking the lord for delivering on their prayers. Huckabee is their man.
Our final conclusion is that the troubles in Pakistan had but a 48 hour impact on voter consciousness in Iowa. If it had been higher in the mind, both Clinton and McCain would have done better.
Now an Internet based news site called The Hive might be forgiven for liking a candidate called Huckabee. However we feel some discomfort about his electability at the end of the day. For the moment our money remains on McCain, who we think would be a much better President. We also think that he could beat any of the three Democrat front runners.
One should not draw too many conclusions from the Iowa caucuses. They are not a reliable predictor of the final choices for either party. That said, there has been more scrutiny of the Iowa vote than ever before, and the results could have real influence over the momentum of various campaigns for forthcoming primaries - particularly New Hampshire.
Our first clear conclusion at The Hive is that the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby running poll is a very accurate indicator of the final result. We will keep using it as our preferred indicator.
Second, we conclude that Senator Clinton is in trouble. The pressure on her in New Hampshire is now immense.
Third, both Obama and Edwards will be delighted. This result will add real impetus to both campaigns.
Fourth, given the closeness of the race, Richardson will have to re-think tactics. His chances of getting the Vice President's slot might be better if he throws his towel in now and endorses someone. The question is who? Clinton might now be too risky a bet.
For McCain, it pretty much hangs on New Hampshire. He needs to do well there. If it isn't first place he needs a close second. Giuliani might like reflect on his future. He is taking some of McCain's vote. For him, Florida is key. For him, a failure to win Florida - where he has been spending all hiss time and money - will be the like the humiliation being felt by Romney.
The religious right will be thanking the lord for delivering on their prayers. Huckabee is their man.
Our final conclusion is that the troubles in Pakistan had but a 48 hour impact on voter consciousness in Iowa. If it had been higher in the mind, both Clinton and McCain would have done better.
Now an Internet based news site called The Hive might be forgiven for liking a candidate called Huckabee. However we feel some discomfort about his electability at the end of the day. For the moment our money remains on McCain, who we think would be a much better President. We also think that he could beat any of the three Democrat front runners.
Iowa Results: Advantage to Obama And Huckabee
Democrats
With 96% percent of precincts reporting, Obama has taken the lead with 38%, Edwards is fighting out second place with Clinton - but it is looking like Edwards for second place. Indeed ABC and CNN and Fox call an Obama victory.
There are currently 12 votes between second and third place, 12 very important votes for Senator Clinton. She won't mind second place, but third will hurt!
Republicans
With 85 percent of precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney. McCain had moved ahead of Fred Thompson for a while but Thompson is now back in third. They have 14 and 13% respectively. Paul was on 10%. Giuliani who initially was looking OK had dropped back and had but 4% support.
CNN is calling a Huckabee win. So is ABC.
We will be updating this post regularly (so ignore the time posted stamp), with full analysis to follow the final result.
With 96% percent of precincts reporting, Obama has taken the lead with 38%, Edwards is fighting out second place with Clinton - but it is looking like Edwards for second place. Indeed ABC and CNN and Fox call an Obama victory.
There are currently 12 votes between second and third place, 12 very important votes for Senator Clinton. She won't mind second place, but third will hurt!
Republicans
With 85 percent of precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney. McCain had moved ahead of Fred Thompson for a while but Thompson is now back in third. They have 14 and 13% respectively. Paul was on 10%. Giuliani who initially was looking OK had dropped back and had but 4% support.
CNN is calling a Huckabee win. So is ABC.
We will be updating this post regularly (so ignore the time posted stamp), with full analysis to follow the final result.
Where Are New Zealand's Statements In Support Of Saudi Blogger?
Saudi Arabia's equivalent of David Farrar, its best known blogger, has been arrested for raising concerns about human rights in the country. Fouad al-Farhan, 32, was arrested December 10 "because he violated the regulations of the kingdom," a spokesman for the Interior Ministry told CNN Wednesday. In an e-mail posted on his Web site since his arrest, however, al-Farhan told friends that he faced arrest for his support of 10 reform advocates the Saudi government accuses of supporting terrorism.
The US Government has criticised the arrest and made its concerns known at the highest levels in Saudi Arabia. The US says that "the US stands for the freedom of expression".
Until recently we thought New Zealand also believed in freedom of expression. New Zealand also doesn't normally hold back when Saudi Arabia oversteps the mark. Even when we are in the middle of free trade negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. So why doesn't New Zealand say something about Fouad al-Farham?? We have checked the Beehive website, Winston Peters' Beehive page, MFAT's homepage, and Scoop, but find nothing. The Hive team hopes that New Zealand attitudes to freedom of expression abroad have not changed as a result of the Electoral Finance Act coming into force.
The US Government has criticised the arrest and made its concerns known at the highest levels in Saudi Arabia. The US says that "the US stands for the freedom of expression".
Until recently we thought New Zealand also believed in freedom of expression. New Zealand also doesn't normally hold back when Saudi Arabia oversteps the mark. Even when we are in the middle of free trade negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. So why doesn't New Zealand say something about Fouad al-Farham?? We have checked the Beehive website, Winston Peters' Beehive page, MFAT's homepage, and Scoop, but find nothing. The Hive team hopes that New Zealand attitudes to freedom of expression abroad have not changed as a result of the Electoral Finance Act coming into force.
Pacific Watch: Stakes High For Both US And Taiwan In Monday's Vote In Marshall Islands Parliament
The Marshall Islands Parliament will meet on Monday for the first time since the 19 November general election. Neither of the two major parties (the UDP and AKA) has a majority. So the next President will be determined by the votes of 5 independent MPs.
This vote, is about far more than who will be President. It could also determine the future shape of relations between the Marshall Islands and both Washington and Taipei. This dynamic is explored in the attached article from Pacific Magazine.
We repeat the key section:
...., at issue in Monday’s parliament election is the stability of relations with the United States and Taiwan, the country¹s two major aid donors.
The Note government is strongly pro-U.S. But opposition leaders are angry about many provisions of the Compact of Free Association with the U.S., including the details of a long-term deal for American use of the missile testing range at Kwajalein that the Notegovernment approved five years ago. AKA Chairman Senator Christopher Loeak said that an urgent priority for his party when it is elected is to address these problems with the U.S. The Kwajalein missile range issue has been largely ignored by the Note administration.
Both Tomeing and Kwajalein paramount chief Imata Kabua, a former president who wields significant power in the AKA, have stated unequivocally they want to cut ties with Taiwan in favor of China, though other members of the party say they disagree on the issue. This year marks the 10th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Taipei, with Taiwan emerging as the second largest aid donor behind the U.S., providing an estimated $15 million in funding and services annually.
This vote, is about far more than who will be President. It could also determine the future shape of relations between the Marshall Islands and both Washington and Taipei. This dynamic is explored in the attached article from Pacific Magazine.
We repeat the key section:
...., at issue in Monday’s parliament election is the stability of relations with the United States and Taiwan, the country¹s two major aid donors.
The Note government is strongly pro-U.S. But opposition leaders are angry about many provisions of the Compact of Free Association with the U.S., including the details of a long-term deal for American use of the missile testing range at Kwajalein that the Notegovernment approved five years ago. AKA Chairman Senator Christopher Loeak said that an urgent priority for his party when it is elected is to address these problems with the U.S. The Kwajalein missile range issue has been largely ignored by the Note administration.
Both Tomeing and Kwajalein paramount chief Imata Kabua, a former president who wields significant power in the AKA, have stated unequivocally they want to cut ties with Taiwan in favor of China, though other members of the party say they disagree on the issue. This year marks the 10th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Taipei, with Taiwan emerging as the second largest aid donor behind the U.S., providing an estimated $15 million in funding and services annually.
Chris Trotter On Nandor's Future
Chris Trotter in today's Otago Daily Times and Dominion Post writes about the rumoured early exit from Parliament by Nandor Tanczos (to allow Green co-leader Russel Norman) a seat in parliament and therefore more profile prior to the election. Trotter, sees this move as potentially positive as it would allow Labour and the Greens more scope to enter a formal coalition. Trotter argues that the reason why this has not yet happened is because of Nandor's association with, and views on, cannabis. The Hive thinks that this is a very superficial analysis. The Green's far left views on economic policy were probably more to blame. However, if Trotter is correct, this will mean that a vote for Labour at the next election will be a vote for the Greens in Government.
Thanks Otago Researchers - Just What The World Needed To Know
The NZ Herald carries the conclusions of research done by two Otago University researchers. This would appear to be , on the surface, a little unhelpful to our biggest export industry.
"Carbon emissions from visitors' air travel to New Zealand equal total emissions from the country's coal, gas and oil-fired power generation, say University of Otago scientists."
Given that most University research is Government funded, we wonder why some coordination is not being undertaken on what topics are researched in the carbon footprint area. This is area is deeply sensitive. Even a small swing in sentiment, in a market such as the UK, could have a big impact here. The ODT article on this research refers to it being based on "an accepted UK emissions formula" . The Hive understands that there is no accepted formula but one is being worked out, and that New Zealand has been invited by the UK Government to participate in this work. In New Zealand, there is a group of Government, academic and private sector interests, under the leadership of MFAT doing work in this space. Did the Otago researchers work with this group on their research? These are all questions that should have been asked by the journalists writing this up.
By the way, UK electricity generation in 2% renewable. New Zealand is 70%. All the more reason for UK tourists to visit here. We have no reason for guilt here. We don't need to show leadership. We are already world leaders. Why don't we say so more often?? Read this for the reason.
"Carbon emissions from visitors' air travel to New Zealand equal total emissions from the country's coal, gas and oil-fired power generation, say University of Otago scientists."
Given that most University research is Government funded, we wonder why some coordination is not being undertaken on what topics are researched in the carbon footprint area. This is area is deeply sensitive. Even a small swing in sentiment, in a market such as the UK, could have a big impact here. The ODT article on this research refers to it being based on "an accepted UK emissions formula" . The Hive understands that there is no accepted formula but one is being worked out, and that New Zealand has been invited by the UK Government to participate in this work. In New Zealand, there is a group of Government, academic and private sector interests, under the leadership of MFAT doing work in this space. Did the Otago researchers work with this group on their research? These are all questions that should have been asked by the journalists writing this up.
By the way, UK electricity generation in 2% renewable. New Zealand is 70%. All the more reason for UK tourists to visit here. We have no reason for guilt here. We don't need to show leadership. We are already world leaders. Why don't we say so more often?? Read this for the reason.
Energy Saving Lightbulbs - Shock Migrane Link
From Today's NZ Herald
BULB BAN BRINGS PROTEST IN UK
Energy-saving light bulbs can trigger migraines, claim British campaigners.
The Migraine Action Association said some of its members alleged the fluorescent bulbs had brought on attacks.
By 2011, Britain will be the first European country to phase out traditional bulbs as part of a strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
The MAA is calling on the Government to avoid a complete ban on old-style bulbs to cater for people with health problems.
Last night New Zealand's Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority chief executive, Mike Underhill, said he was not aware of any research linking energy efficient light bulbs with migraines. "These compact fluorescents are just the same as the traditional [tube] office lights. The fluorescent light isn't a new thing. What is new is to be able to make them in a small twisty, twirly form that you can put in ordinary light sockets."
BULB BAN BRINGS PROTEST IN UK
Energy-saving light bulbs can trigger migraines, claim British campaigners.
The Migraine Action Association said some of its members alleged the fluorescent bulbs had brought on attacks.
By 2011, Britain will be the first European country to phase out traditional bulbs as part of a strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
The MAA is calling on the Government to avoid a complete ban on old-style bulbs to cater for people with health problems.
Last night New Zealand's Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority chief executive, Mike Underhill, said he was not aware of any research linking energy efficient light bulbs with migraines. "These compact fluorescents are just the same as the traditional [tube] office lights. The fluorescent light isn't a new thing. What is new is to be able to make them in a small twisty, twirly form that you can put in ordinary light sockets."
Big Swings Aparent As Caucuses Gather In Iowa
The final Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll has shown big moves in the hours before the Iowa caucuses. Clinton (24%) has fallen badly and is now in third place behind Obama (on 31%) and Edwards (27%). On the Republican side Huckabee has extended his lead over Romney. The battle for third spot has become the most interesting. McCain who is doing really well in new Hampshire, has fallen back a little. Thompson is still just ahead of him. And Ron Paul has begun a late surge.
The Hive will bring you its analyssis of the results later today.
The Hive will bring you its analyssis of the results later today.
Jan 3, 2008
Pacific Watch: Taiwan Starts To Get Really Smart In South Pacific Diplomacy - New Zealand Next??
Taiwan has woken up to its ace card in dealings with the Pacific (including New Zealand). Taiwan is the ancestral homeland for all the Austronesian peoples. The DNA evidence is beyond dispute - except in some quarters in Beijing, and perhaps with New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters who constantly refers to being of Chinese ancestry (helpful when you helped build your political career on anti-Chinese sentiment). Taiwan's aboriginal tribes and all the people of the Pacific are genetically almost identical.
Now Taiwan's aboriginal peoples have not been treated all that well over the last few hundred years. The immigrant Chinese stole their best land and forced them to survive on only the most marginal of mountain lands or on remote, non-hospitable islands. Their anti-Chinese views came in handy when Japan become Taiwan's colonial ruler. The aboriginal people were happier with Japan in charge than any Chinese rulers, and the Japanese made good use of the warrior and sporting prowess of the aboriginal peoples in the Japanese armed forces. Many of the Japanese special forces used in the China war and WWII were Taiwanese aboriginals (for this reason Taiwanese are a bit conflicted on issues such as "the rape of Nanjing" etc.) When the KMT (the Chinese Nationalist Party) fled China and became the new occupiers of Taiwan there was indeed a bit of retribution. Aboriginals were discriminated against in all fields other than the baseball field where they excelled. Then along came DNA analysis and what an interesting story it told. Links between the Maori and Taiwan's aboriginals have been growing in the last 10 or so years. And links are being built between other peoples in the Pacific.
Taiwan has decided to play this card more prominently by appointing an aboriginal diplomat as Taiwan's new representative in Fiji.
This is a smart move. The Hive expects that Taiwan will be developing further this aspect of its diplomacy with New Zealand also. We understand that links with the Maori Party are proving particularly promising for Taiwan. Watch this space should Maori (as is looking increasingly likely) become part of the next New Zealand Government. No shift in recognition is possible, but expect some more balance in the relationship, and more interest from Wellington in Taiwan's security and economic well being.
Now Taiwan's aboriginal peoples have not been treated all that well over the last few hundred years. The immigrant Chinese stole their best land and forced them to survive on only the most marginal of mountain lands or on remote, non-hospitable islands. Their anti-Chinese views came in handy when Japan become Taiwan's colonial ruler. The aboriginal people were happier with Japan in charge than any Chinese rulers, and the Japanese made good use of the warrior and sporting prowess of the aboriginal peoples in the Japanese armed forces. Many of the Japanese special forces used in the China war and WWII were Taiwanese aboriginals (for this reason Taiwanese are a bit conflicted on issues such as "the rape of Nanjing" etc.) When the KMT (the Chinese Nationalist Party) fled China and became the new occupiers of Taiwan there was indeed a bit of retribution. Aboriginals were discriminated against in all fields other than the baseball field where they excelled. Then along came DNA analysis and what an interesting story it told. Links between the Maori and Taiwan's aboriginals have been growing in the last 10 or so years. And links are being built between other peoples in the Pacific.
Taiwan has decided to play this card more prominently by appointing an aboriginal diplomat as Taiwan's new representative in Fiji.
This is a smart move. The Hive expects that Taiwan will be developing further this aspect of its diplomacy with New Zealand also. We understand that links with the Maori Party are proving particularly promising for Taiwan. Watch this space should Maori (as is looking increasingly likely) become part of the next New Zealand Government. No shift in recognition is possible, but expect some more balance in the relationship, and more interest from Wellington in Taiwan's security and economic well being.
Australia: "Daring" Foreign Policy Changes Under Rudd??
The New Zealand Institute of International Affairs is under-resourced, yet on a shoestring budget does a pretty good job or arranging seminars and speakers throughout the year. But their programme and resources don't compare to what is available across the ditch. The Hive team are regular attendees at seminars and discussions arranged by think tanks in Australia. One of the best is the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
Michael Fullilove, the director of the Global Issues Program at the Lowy Institute, gave an interesting interview to the ABC on the changes he sees brewing in Australian foreign policy under the new Government. We have linked to the transcript. He sees the potential for "daring" change. I am not sure we use the term "daring" in quite the same way.
One topic not covered in this interview is the relationship with New Zealand. Much has been made of the Howard Government's positive attitude to the relationship. We would hope that Rudd would be just as positive if not more so. The Hive team were particularly worried about the apparent competition between Australia and New Zealand in the race for Free Trade Agreements. The Hive reminds both Governments that we are now essentially one economy. Lets not compete against each other in third markets. Lets work more closely together.
Michael Fullilove, the director of the Global Issues Program at the Lowy Institute, gave an interesting interview to the ABC on the changes he sees brewing in Australian foreign policy under the new Government. We have linked to the transcript. He sees the potential for "daring" change. I am not sure we use the term "daring" in quite the same way.
One topic not covered in this interview is the relationship with New Zealand. Much has been made of the Howard Government's positive attitude to the relationship. We would hope that Rudd would be just as positive if not more so. The Hive team were particularly worried about the apparent competition between Australia and New Zealand in the race for Free Trade Agreements. The Hive reminds both Governments that we are now essentially one economy. Lets not compete against each other in third markets. Lets work more closely together.
Yet More From Mike Moore
Former PM and Helen Clark's predecessor as Labour leader (and good friend of Phil Goff) has fired another broadside at the Electoral Finance Act. We quote to give some flavour of his comments:
"It was rushed, badly drafted, can't be understood, (is) full of inviting loopholes, amendments were made at the last minute without scrutiny, and it's a blogger's breakfast,"
Moore predicts that the Act will be tested in the courts soon and be found wanting. He predicts that it will not survive in current form until the election.
At The Hive we would not be surprised to see an earlier election than many are anticipating, so there may be no chance to make changes. We see a real chance that the current Government is going to implode. Mike Moore's comments are a further sign of tension building within Labour.
"It was rushed, badly drafted, can't be understood, (is) full of inviting loopholes, amendments were made at the last minute without scrutiny, and it's a blogger's breakfast,"
Moore predicts that the Act will be tested in the courts soon and be found wanting. He predicts that it will not survive in current form until the election.
At The Hive we would not be surprised to see an earlier election than many are anticipating, so there may be no chance to make changes. We see a real chance that the current Government is going to implode. Mike Moore's comments are a further sign of tension building within Labour.
Clinton And Obama Tied One Day Out In Iowa
The media are getting a dream run in Iowa with the tightest of possible races for the Democratic nomination. The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll has Clinton and Obama tied on 28% with Edwards just two back. It is not too different on the Republican side with the gap between Huckabee and Romney is closing, McCain has stayed steady on 12% but he has been joined in third place by Fred Thompson.
Jan 2, 2008
TVNZ Wakes Up To Growing Asian Influence In The Pacific
We were pleased to see that tonight TVNZ news had a longish item on the growing Asian influence in the Pacific. This seemed to have been stimulated by Ron Crocombe's new book. The Hive team contemplated a referral to this book a few days ago but decided to miss the opportunity. We were disappointed that Ron missed the most interesting elements of this story. The focus is too much on criminal influence and dodgy business deals, rather than on the impact that the political competition is having. TVNZ missed the point as well. They actually suggested that the rivalry between China and Taiwan is a good thing for aid levels and that a lessening of tensions between the two would be bad for the Pacific. The real story they should have been investigating is the impact that untied aid is having. Big cheques have been passed accross without any interest from Beijing and Taipei in how the money is spent. We saw the result in the Solomon Islands with the money going straight into arms purchases. There is also strong evidence that individuals are being bribed. Lets hope that today's story is the first of many and that future stories are less superficial.
Thailand: Pro-Thaksin PPP Says It Can Form Government
It looks like Thai politics will remain unstable for some time. The pro-Thaksin People Power Party believe that they have the support now to form a new Government, but as this AFP story suggests, the numbers game is a bit of a moving feast. The PPP has secured the support of three smaller parties, but 3 of the PPP's winning candidates look set for disqualification due to vote buying (some things don't change much in Thai politics!!). Even if the PPP do form the Government, Thailand is likely to remain a deeply divided country, divisions are likely to deepen further if former PM Thaksin returns home in April, as his threatening to do.
The Hive's particular concern is what this instability, and Thaksin influence, will mean for the important services negotiations which are due between New Zealand and Thailand in 2008.
We repeat below the relevant provisions of the Closer Economic Partnership (Labourspeak for FTA) which came into force on 1 July 2005.
ARTICLE 8.1
Liberalisation of Trade in Services
1. The Parties agree to conclude an agreement which liberalises trade in services between the Parties and which is consistent with Articles V.1 and V.3 of GATS.
2. For the purposes of Paragraph 1, the Parties shall enter into negotiations on trade in services within three years from the date of entry into force of this Agreement, with the aim of concluding an agreement to liberalise trade in services between the two Parties as soon as possible.
The Hive's particular concern is what this instability, and Thaksin influence, will mean for the important services negotiations which are due between New Zealand and Thailand in 2008.
We repeat below the relevant provisions of the Closer Economic Partnership (Labourspeak for FTA) which came into force on 1 July 2005.
ARTICLE 8.1
Liberalisation of Trade in Services
1. The Parties agree to conclude an agreement which liberalises trade in services between the Parties and which is consistent with Articles V.1 and V.3 of GATS.
2. For the purposes of Paragraph 1, the Parties shall enter into negotiations on trade in services within three years from the date of entry into force of this Agreement, with the aim of concluding an agreement to liberalise trade in services between the two Parties as soon as possible.
According to our maths this means that negotiations must be started before 1 July 2008.
The Hive understands that preliminary talks about how to go about this negotiation had been planned late last year, but were shelved at the request of the Thai Government because of the forthcoming election. The Hive also understands that business groups remain angry that services were excluded from the original agreement and that there will be serious repercussions for the Government if it fails to deliver on the Agreement to have services incorporated into the agreement in 2008. Services make up close to 70% of New Zealand's GDP and close to 30% of New Zealand's exports.
McCain Takes The Lead in New Hampshire
While he may have dropped back a little in Iowa, McCain can be well pleased with the latest opinion poll on the New Hampshire race. He is in the lead. The 7News/Suffolk University poll has McCain ahead of rival Mitt Romney 31 to 25.
McCain was widely written off a few months back. But as of today, he is looking at second or third in Iowa and first or second in New Hampshire. The Hive thinks that he is sitting pretty.
McCain was widely written off a few months back. But as of today, he is looking at second or third in Iowa and first or second in New Hampshire. The Hive thinks that he is sitting pretty.
Uncertainty In Climate Change Science
James Weir has also written a balanced item about the lack of certainty in the science underpinning climate change policy.
Parker Interventions Risk Power Shortages
We have been known to criticise journalists in New Zealand from time to time but we are today complementing James Weir for the piece he has written for the Dominion Post. Weir interview Roy Hemmingway, the former Electricity Commissioner. It is political and economic dynamite. The Hive has been saying for some time that the 90% renewables target is nuts (impossible to deliver on without reducing growth in the economy) and that the 10 year moratorium on new thermal generation risks power shortages in Auckland within the next few years. We quote from the article:
"Now living in the United States again, Hemmingway told BusinessDay the original Energy Strategy drafted by government officials was "fairly well balanced". But Hemmingway said he understood that the more "extreme reliance" on renewable energy was substituted by Parker himself.
"More renewables are necessary if New Zealand is to meet climate change targets. However, in my opinion, the government's policy puts so much emphasis on renewables to the exclusion of other generation sources that the power supply is at risk," Hemmingway said.
He warned against an over-reliance on wind power.
"The most likely and abundant source of renewable electricity is wind, and wind is unpredictable," Hemmingway said.
It was possible to predict the amount of wind energy available over the course of a whole year, but it was "very difficult" to predict how much wind power might be possible at the exact time it was needed to meet demand, he said.
"Given that New Zealand has begun to experience issues around meeting peak demand, there is a very serious problem with relying on wind," he said.
There were not enough other forms of renewable power such as hydro and geothermal stations that would provide a more reliable power supply.
"Power prices will rise, simply because new sources of supply, of all kinds, are more expensive than the old sources," Hemmingway said.
Banning non-renewable power from coal or gas fired stations potentially meant generators would have to turn to more expensive sources driving up prices."
The article also reminds us about the risks associated with hydro and about the reduced capacity on the Cook Strait cable.
Hemmingway also says : "security of supply was always an issue for New Zealand's power system because of the unpredictable nature of water running into hydro lakes. That would be made worse by an even greater reliance on hydro and wind, as against the more predictable power from gas or coal."
Why has it taken a former Electricity Commission Chairman to make these comments as opposed to the current Commission members? Is this not the role for the Commission? Is this silence something to do with links to the Labour Party of key Commission members?
Hemmingway's comments about Parker's interventions will not go down well in the Beehive, particularly the 9th Floor, where questions are being asked about whether he is an asset or risk? But this is not just Parker's problem. We have serious Government policy being announced without any cost benefit calculations being made, and with the policy being driven by partisan politics as opposed to national benefit considerations. This should not be possible under the Westminster system. But this has been corrupted in New Zealand in recent years. We now have a public service that is happy to be associated with policy that can't be delivered on, or which can have effects that are not fully understood. We have a public service run by chiefs who are prepared to look the other way, rather than fight hard for good policy. We have a politicised public service.
"Now living in the United States again, Hemmingway told BusinessDay the original Energy Strategy drafted by government officials was "fairly well balanced". But Hemmingway said he understood that the more "extreme reliance" on renewable energy was substituted by Parker himself.
"More renewables are necessary if New Zealand is to meet climate change targets. However, in my opinion, the government's policy puts so much emphasis on renewables to the exclusion of other generation sources that the power supply is at risk," Hemmingway said.
He warned against an over-reliance on wind power.
"The most likely and abundant source of renewable electricity is wind, and wind is unpredictable," Hemmingway said.
It was possible to predict the amount of wind energy available over the course of a whole year, but it was "very difficult" to predict how much wind power might be possible at the exact time it was needed to meet demand, he said.
"Given that New Zealand has begun to experience issues around meeting peak demand, there is a very serious problem with relying on wind," he said.
There were not enough other forms of renewable power such as hydro and geothermal stations that would provide a more reliable power supply.
"Power prices will rise, simply because new sources of supply, of all kinds, are more expensive than the old sources," Hemmingway said.
Banning non-renewable power from coal or gas fired stations potentially meant generators would have to turn to more expensive sources driving up prices."
The article also reminds us about the risks associated with hydro and about the reduced capacity on the Cook Strait cable.
Hemmingway also says : "security of supply was always an issue for New Zealand's power system because of the unpredictable nature of water running into hydro lakes. That would be made worse by an even greater reliance on hydro and wind, as against the more predictable power from gas or coal."
Why has it taken a former Electricity Commission Chairman to make these comments as opposed to the current Commission members? Is this not the role for the Commission? Is this silence something to do with links to the Labour Party of key Commission members?
Hemmingway's comments about Parker's interventions will not go down well in the Beehive, particularly the 9th Floor, where questions are being asked about whether he is an asset or risk? But this is not just Parker's problem. We have serious Government policy being announced without any cost benefit calculations being made, and with the policy being driven by partisan politics as opposed to national benefit considerations. This should not be possible under the Westminster system. But this has been corrupted in New Zealand in recent years. We now have a public service that is happy to be associated with policy that can't be delivered on, or which can have effects that are not fully understood. We have a public service run by chiefs who are prepared to look the other way, rather than fight hard for good policy. We have a politicised public service.
Fran On The Glenn Gong
Fran O'Sullivan, who is meant to be on holiday, has written a piece in today's NZ Herald on Labour's awarding of a high award to the biggest donor to the party at the last election. We did not see too much wrong with the award. Glenn has given far more to Auckland University and other causes than to Labour, and he is a successful business person. At The Hive we believe in the celebration of success, not knocking the tall poppy. It is a pity that Glenn has chosen to stay offshore etc. and the donation to Labour does call into question Glenn's judgement, but as far as the Honours system goes we were not too worried. Fran, however, has been doing some serious digging about this award and about how Owen Glenn, as a potential future donor caused Labour to do a rethink about some of the wording in the Electoral Finance Act.
Fran has also talked to Murray McCully about National's position on this award. According to Murray:
"National sees the Glenn honour as a huge double standard. Businessmen who are claimed to have contributed to National under previous rules which allowed anonymous donations, have been personally attacked in Parliament for trying to buy influence or favours. In the case of foreign donors to National, they have been prevented by legislation against making significant contributions in the future.
Whereas Labour gives a gong at New Year to support those businessmen who support it, in particular its biggest funder, says McCully.
National's other beef is the fact that Labour Party president Mike Williams let himself be drawn into commenting at all on the Glenn honour. He should have declined to comment and pointed journalists in the direction of members of Cabinet's appointments and honours committee, which is the body that receives nominations, deliberate, then confirms honours so as to avoid any potential for misunderstanding."
On balance. The Hive thinks that Labour has shot itself in the foot again. This is not the continuing controversy that Helen and team would have wanted at the start of election year. We hope that Phil Goff and his friends reflect on the now, very long list of own goals that Helen, Heather, and the two Mikes - Cullen and Williams have allowed to slip through. Might is not be time for change at the top??
Fran has also talked to Murray McCully about National's position on this award. According to Murray:
"National sees the Glenn honour as a huge double standard. Businessmen who are claimed to have contributed to National under previous rules which allowed anonymous donations, have been personally attacked in Parliament for trying to buy influence or favours. In the case of foreign donors to National, they have been prevented by legislation against making significant contributions in the future.
Whereas Labour gives a gong at New Year to support those businessmen who support it, in particular its biggest funder, says McCully.
National's other beef is the fact that Labour Party president Mike Williams let himself be drawn into commenting at all on the Glenn honour. He should have declined to comment and pointed journalists in the direction of members of Cabinet's appointments and honours committee, which is the body that receives nominations, deliberate, then confirms honours so as to avoid any potential for misunderstanding."
On balance. The Hive thinks that Labour has shot itself in the foot again. This is not the continuing controversy that Helen and team would have wanted at the start of election year. We hope that Phil Goff and his friends reflect on the now, very long list of own goals that Helen, Heather, and the two Mikes - Cullen and Williams have allowed to slip through. Might is not be time for change at the top??
Hillary Clinton Maintains Lead; Huckabee Extends His
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll on the Iowa race is out. Clinton remains steady on 30% ahead of Obama on 26% and Edwards on 25%. On the Republican side Huckabee maintains his support but both Romney and McCain have slipped a little.
Jan 1, 2008
Pressure Mounting Inside The Greens?
One of the problems being faced by the Greens, is that their new co-leader Russel Norman has nothing like the media presence achieved by the late Rod Donald. This reduced standing is partly a reflection of the fact that Norman is not even a Member of Parliament. Add to this increasing speculation that Jeanette Fitzsimons is soon (probably after the next election) to step down from Parliament (if the Greens get back) and the co-leadership and you have some explanations as to why the Greens are struggling to poll at more than 5%, the key threshold to allow continuing representation in Parliament. Is there any quick fix? Perhaps there is one. Rumour is circulating around town that an existing MP might stand down, and the next person on the list might stand aside, to allow co-leader Russel into Parliament early in 2008. Aside from anything else, such a manipulation of the MMP rules will ensure higher publicity for the Greens for a few days. There is more on this on whoar and on kiwiblog.
Pakistan Watch: Serious Questions Being Asked About Bhutto Killing
The New York Times today is reporting that searching questions continue to be asked about the Bhutto killing. New details of Bhutto's final moments, and indications that her doctors felt pressured to conform to government accounts of her death, fueled the arguments over her assassination on Sunday and added to the pressure on Pakistan’s leaders to accept an international inquiry. We recommend you read the full report.
It seems that the Pakistan Government doesn't like suggestions that Bhutto was shot before the bomb was set off. The fact that an autopsy was not carried out on Bhutto is disturbing, as is the pressure being placed on those doctors who did examine her body.
It seems that the Pakistan Government doesn't like suggestions that Bhutto was shot before the bomb was set off. The fact that an autopsy was not carried out on Bhutto is disturbing, as is the pressure being placed on those doctors who did examine her body.
Taiwan Watch: More On The Referendum
Taiwan's Foreign Ministry is reported today as having received clarification on the comments we reported late last year by Japan's Prime Minister on the Taiwan UN Referendum. According to a wire report repeated on the Taipei Times website:
"Japan has recently explained that it "does not oppose" the plan to hold a referendum on its bid for a seat in the UN under the name Taiwan, but hopes the referendum will not raise tension in the Taiwan Strait, a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official said yesterday.
Japan told the ministry that it will not support the planned referendum "if it leads [Taiwan] to take unilateral action to change the `status quo,'" said Huang Ju-hou (黃諸侯), chief executive officer of the MOFA Committee on Japanese Affairs."
Meanwhile the Chinese Nationalist Party, the KMT, Taiwan's largest opposition party has called for a public boycott of the proposed referendum. "Referenda are holy, but this referendum has been distorted and turned into a tool to incite conflicts, so we have made the painful decision to call on voters to reject the UN referendum," KMT chairman Wo Poh-hsiung said.
"Japan has recently explained that it "does not oppose" the plan to hold a referendum on its bid for a seat in the UN under the name Taiwan, but hopes the referendum will not raise tension in the Taiwan Strait, a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official said yesterday.
Japan told the ministry that it will not support the planned referendum "if it leads [Taiwan] to take unilateral action to change the `status quo,'" said Huang Ju-hou (黃諸侯), chief executive officer of the MOFA Committee on Japanese Affairs."
Meanwhile the Chinese Nationalist Party, the KMT, Taiwan's largest opposition party has called for a public boycott of the proposed referendum. "Referenda are holy, but this referendum has been distorted and turned into a tool to incite conflicts, so we have made the painful decision to call on voters to reject the UN referendum," KMT chairman Wo Poh-hsiung said.
Poneke On Global Warming
Poneke's first weblog for 2008 is devoted to the media's treatment of the climate change issue. We recommend it, as it is not just though provoking, but in parts similar to our own analysis of a few days back (though our analysis comes from a political rather than media angle).
Like Poneke we would like to see the media apply a more critical (and professional) eye to the climate change issue in 2008.
Like Poneke we would like to see the media apply a more critical (and professional) eye to the climate change issue in 2008.
Clinton In Lead In Iowa
Clinton appears to be pulling ahead in Iowa. According to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll New York Sen. Clinton has a four-point lead among Democrats over Obama and former North Carolina Sen. Edwards, who were tied for second. Among Republicans, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee narrowly led former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by two points.
The full results of this rolling poll are provided by clicking on the highlighted text. This poll is updated daily and is based on surveying done on the three previous days.
The full results of this rolling poll are provided by clicking on the highlighted text. This poll is updated daily and is based on surveying done on the three previous days.
Herald On Glenn
The NZ Herald editorial today is dedicated to the subject of Owen Glenn, the largest individual donor to the New Zealand Labour Party ($500,000 at the last election). The Herald suggests that Glenn is most deserving of his New Year Honour -
"He thoroughly deserves one of our highest national honours, not for his political contribution alone but not least for it either. Our politics would be very much poorer in every sense if wealthy people were not encouraged to contribute to the cause of good government and parties were to become entirely state financed.
Mr Glenn doubly deserves his honour because he appears to have made no secret of his contribution. He let his name be known and said he expected nothing in return. Nothing, it goes without saying, except sound public policy and sensible, responsible government."
The Herald also makes some comments on the state of our political parties -
"...Political parties have ceased to be the mass-membership organisations they were 40 years ago and have come to rely increasingly on state funding through parliamentary allocations for research, communications, electorate office staffing and free broadcast advertising in election campaigns.
The trend will be strengthened by the bill passed late last year to validate the use of parliamentary communications money for electioneering and by the restriction of private political advertising under the Electoral Finance Act that comes into force today. The combined effect will be to increase the advantage of incumbent parties in Parliament and discourage outsiders from participating in election debate."
"He thoroughly deserves one of our highest national honours, not for his political contribution alone but not least for it either. Our politics would be very much poorer in every sense if wealthy people were not encouraged to contribute to the cause of good government and parties were to become entirely state financed.
Mr Glenn doubly deserves his honour because he appears to have made no secret of his contribution. He let his name be known and said he expected nothing in return. Nothing, it goes without saying, except sound public policy and sensible, responsible government."
The Herald also makes some comments on the state of our political parties -
"...Political parties have ceased to be the mass-membership organisations they were 40 years ago and have come to rely increasingly on state funding through parliamentary allocations for research, communications, electorate office staffing and free broadcast advertising in election campaigns.
The trend will be strengthened by the bill passed late last year to validate the use of parliamentary communications money for electioneering and by the restriction of private political advertising under the Electoral Finance Act that comes into force today. The combined effect will be to increase the advantage of incumbent parties in Parliament and discourage outsiders from participating in election debate."
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