The Dominion Post reports what some of us have been suggesting for some months. helen Clark's strategy has been to canabalise the NZ First vote:
Helen Clark has admitted for the first time that NZ First is in trouble - a clear signal to its supporters not to waste their votes.
With the election now just days away, the prime minister has conceded that NZ First and leader Winston Peters will struggle to make it back into Parliament.
If Labour picked up some of NZ First's current support of 2 per cent or 3 per cent, it could be enough to make a difference in a tight race.
But National is also on the hunt for NZ First votes. National leader John Key is in Tauranga today, where fresh polls show Mr Peters has little chance of taking back the seat he lost in 2005.
On a Sky News debate, Miss Clark noted several times that NZ First may not be back in Parliament - and yesterday acknowledged it was facing "a tough fight". "I think everyone's reluctant to draw firm conclusions but obviously it's looking tough."
She also moved yesterday to anoint the Greens as her preferred partner - a prospect that would make any deal with NZ First, even if it does return, difficult.
"The Greens have waited a long time to be in Government. Their time is here," Miss Clark said.
The Green Party also increased the pressure on NZ First, ruling out sitting around a Cabinet table with Mr Peters till the latest allegations surrounding him had been investigated. Three years ago, Mr Peters vetoed the Greens playing any role in government.
Nov 4, 2008
PM More Careful On Opinion Polls
Did anyone notice the change in assessment from the PM yesterday? She has moved from her claims that Labour+Green=National in all the polls she has seen to a new, and more accurate formulation. She is now saying Labour+Green+some other support = being competitive. Being competitive means being reasonably close, not the same.
All polling we know of is showing National well ahead of Labour+Green and that gap has grown a little in recent days (as has the proportion of the Green vote in the Labour+Green mix).
All polling we know of is showing National well ahead of Labour+Green and that gap has grown a little in recent days (as has the proportion of the Green vote in the Labour+Green mix).
Hooton Theory To Be Put To Test:The Kiwiherald Anyone?
In his last SST column before the election Matthew Hooton suggests that should they win Labour will seek further control of the media. Well if true why wait for the election. The Herald is up for sale. Why doesn't the Government buy in? We could then have The Kiwiherald to go with Kiwirail, Kiwibank and Kiwisaver. And while the Government is at it why not buy Kiwiblog? We are sure that Farrar has a price. The Standard needs to re brand. The team could move straight across. The beauty of these suggested arrangements is that both David Farrar and Fran O'Sullivan could be silenced overnight.
When is Radio New Zealand National going to rebranded Kiwiradio?
When is Radio New Zealand National going to rebranded Kiwiradio?
Nov 3, 2008
It Seems To Have Been A Draw
We did not watch it because it was on a channel we don't watch, but everyone says that tonight's debate was boring and uninspiring. That is very bad news for Labour. Helen needed a big win tonight if she had any chance of turning what is looking like a history making rout around.
How Many Heads Left On The Hydra??
Well, we reported that the heads were about to fall off, but 24 hours later one or two heads have fallen off. Good on the Greens for refusing to serve in Government with Winston. We admire your integrity. Unfortunately we don't think you will have the chance to prove your integrity as Winston and crew are not going to be in Parliament after Saturday.
But what interests us most right now is your relationship with Jim Anderton. We have listened again to the Radio NZ National debate from last night. The sparks really flew between Comrade Norman and sensible Jim Anderton. How is that relationship going to work around the Cabinet table?
But what interests us most right now is your relationship with Jim Anderton. We have listened again to the Radio NZ National debate from last night. The sparks really flew between Comrade Norman and sensible Jim Anderton. How is that relationship going to work around the Cabinet table?
This Is Interesting
What was a former employee of Winston Peters (now working for the PM's Office on matters relating to Winston's old portfolio) doing out drinking on Friday night with a member of the Vast Right Wing Blog Conspiracy?????
Has anyone noticed an increase in Winston related gossip on a certain blogsite with a fishy theme???
Has anyone noticed an increase in Winston related gossip on a certain blogsite with a fishy theme???
Monday Study
While the Busted Blonde has been asking easy question we have something more challenging for you. Something to study overnight. Tomorrow we have a question for you about an event that occurred recently in Wellington and whether this fits the definition below - this comes from Section 216 of The Electoral Act 1993 :
Bribery
(1) Every person is guilty of a corrupt practice who commits the offence of bribery.
(2) Every person commits the offence of bribery who, directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf—
(a) gives any money or procures any office to or for any voter, or to or for any other person on behalf of any voter, or to or for any other person, in order to induce any voter to vote or refrain from voting; or
(b) corruptly does any such act as aforesaid on account of any voter having voted or refrained from voting; or
(c) makes any such gift or procurement as aforesaid to or for any person in order to induce that person to procure, or endeavour to procure, the return of any person or candidates at an election or the vote of any voter,—
or who, upon or in consequence of any such gift or procurement as aforesaid, procures, or engages, promises, or endeavours to procure, the return of any person or candidates at any election or the vote of any voter.
(3) For the purposes of this section,—
(a) references to giving money shall include references to giving, lending, agreeing to give or lend, offering, promising, or promising to procure or endeavour to procure, any money or valuable consideration:
(b) references to procuring any office shall include references to giving, procuring, agreeing to give or procure, offering, promising, or promising to procure or to endeavour to procure, any office, place, or employment.
(4) Every person commits the offence of bribery who—
(a) advances or pays or causes to be paid any money to or to the use of any other person with the intent that that money or any part thereof shall be expended in bribery at any election; or
(b) knowingly pays or causes to be paid any money to any person in discharge or repayment of any money wholly or in part expended in bribery at any election.
(5) The foregoing provisions of this section shall not extend or be construed to extend to any money paid or agreed to be paid for or on account of any legal expenses incurred in good faith at or concerning an election.
(6) A voter commits the offence of bribery if before or during an election he or she directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf, receives, or agrees or contracts for, any money, gift, loan, or valuable consideration, office, place, or employment for himself or herself or for any other person for voting or agreeing to vote or for refraining or agreeing to refrain from voting.
(7) Every person commits the offence of bribery if after an election he or she directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf, receives any money or valuable consideration on account of any person having voted or refrained from voting or having induced any other person to vote or refrain from voting.
(8) In this section the term voter includes any person who has or claims to have a right to vote.
Bribery
(1) Every person is guilty of a corrupt practice who commits the offence of bribery.
(2) Every person commits the offence of bribery who, directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf—
(a) gives any money or procures any office to or for any voter, or to or for any other person on behalf of any voter, or to or for any other person, in order to induce any voter to vote or refrain from voting; or
(b) corruptly does any such act as aforesaid on account of any voter having voted or refrained from voting; or
(c) makes any such gift or procurement as aforesaid to or for any person in order to induce that person to procure, or endeavour to procure, the return of any person or candidates at an election or the vote of any voter,—
or who, upon or in consequence of any such gift or procurement as aforesaid, procures, or engages, promises, or endeavours to procure, the return of any person or candidates at any election or the vote of any voter.
(3) For the purposes of this section,—
(a) references to giving money shall include references to giving, lending, agreeing to give or lend, offering, promising, or promising to procure or endeavour to procure, any money or valuable consideration:
(b) references to procuring any office shall include references to giving, procuring, agreeing to give or procure, offering, promising, or promising to procure or to endeavour to procure, any office, place, or employment.
(4) Every person commits the offence of bribery who—
(a) advances or pays or causes to be paid any money to or to the use of any other person with the intent that that money or any part thereof shall be expended in bribery at any election; or
(b) knowingly pays or causes to be paid any money to any person in discharge or repayment of any money wholly or in part expended in bribery at any election.
(5) The foregoing provisions of this section shall not extend or be construed to extend to any money paid or agreed to be paid for or on account of any legal expenses incurred in good faith at or concerning an election.
(6) A voter commits the offence of bribery if before or during an election he or she directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf, receives, or agrees or contracts for, any money, gift, loan, or valuable consideration, office, place, or employment for himself or herself or for any other person for voting or agreeing to vote or for refraining or agreeing to refrain from voting.
(7) Every person commits the offence of bribery if after an election he or she directly or indirectly, by himself or herself or by any other person on his or her behalf, receives any money or valuable consideration on account of any person having voted or refrained from voting or having induced any other person to vote or refrain from voting.
(8) In this section the term voter includes any person who has or claims to have a right to vote.
Busted Blonde Trying To Tease Us
Over at Roar Prawn the Busted Blonde is trying to blow Winston's world completely apart. She has just dangled a tantalising quiz.
We think that this article from the Dom Post a few months back might help answer this question. Take note of where this fellow used to work (once the KGB were finished with him).
Hoki or scampi for dinner anyone?
We think that this article from the Dom Post a few months back might help answer this question. Take note of where this fellow used to work (once the KGB were finished with him).
Hoki or scampi for dinner anyone?
Hellicopters Most Popular Story On NZ Herald Website
Winston's latest attempts to bluster his way around the truth are really back firing. The Herald is also running with the helicopter photo for 1999 and it is the most read story on its website at present
NZ First leader Winston Peters says he did not use a helicopter for election campaigning - but the photographic evidence suggests otherwise.
Mr Peters has flatly denied using a helicopter to campaign, calling the suggestion "stupid".
"Did you see me flying around in a helicopter? Who would try and campaign out of a helicopter?"
But the Herald has obtained a photographic sequence of a smiling Mr Peters posing before taking off from Gisborne Airport shortly before the 1999 election.
Mr Peters' denial followed a report he demanded the free use of a helicopter during the 1999 campaign from his wealthy backers in the Vela family.
The MP wanted to paint the helicopter in NZ First colours and fly it into rural areas, according to documents obtained by the Dominion-Post.
"Tell him [Philip Vela] to hire me an unmarked helicopter. So I can paint it black/white and NZ First. Then I can drop into small rural towns and schools," he wrote in one.
"Tell those bastards I want a helicopter. Don't give me this crap about the machine needing repairs."
Can anyone explain why Helen is still sticking by Winston?? Isn't Labour fighting this election on the issue of trust?
NZ First leader Winston Peters says he did not use a helicopter for election campaigning - but the photographic evidence suggests otherwise.
Mr Peters has flatly denied using a helicopter to campaign, calling the suggestion "stupid".
"Did you see me flying around in a helicopter? Who would try and campaign out of a helicopter?"
But the Herald has obtained a photographic sequence of a smiling Mr Peters posing before taking off from Gisborne Airport shortly before the 1999 election.
Mr Peters' denial followed a report he demanded the free use of a helicopter during the 1999 campaign from his wealthy backers in the Vela family.
The MP wanted to paint the helicopter in NZ First colours and fly it into rural areas, according to documents obtained by the Dominion-Post.
"Tell him [Philip Vela] to hire me an unmarked helicopter. So I can paint it black/white and NZ First. Then I can drop into small rural towns and schools," he wrote in one.
"Tell those bastards I want a helicopter. Don't give me this crap about the machine needing repairs."
Can anyone explain why Helen is still sticking by Winston?? Isn't Labour fighting this election on the issue of trust?
Government Expecting Bad News On Thursday
A significant jump in unemployment looks likely when latest statistics are released on Thursday, two days before the election. Brian Fallow looks at expectations from the market in today's NZ Herald
The unemployment rate is expected to jump when September quarter jobs data are released on Thursday, as the recession pushes more firms over the line from the desire to hoard labour to the need to cut costs.
Market economists' forecasts cluster around an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent in the June quarter. It would be the highest rate since December 2003.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said the seven-year run of strong employment growth had ended.
"So far most affected workers have found alternative employment, quit the labour force or emigrated. The rise in unemployment has been slow but steady."
The unemployment rate is expected to jump when September quarter jobs data are released on Thursday, as the recession pushes more firms over the line from the desire to hoard labour to the need to cut costs.
Market economists' forecasts cluster around an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent, up from 3.9 per cent in the June quarter. It would be the highest rate since December 2003.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said the seven-year run of strong employment growth had ended.
"So far most affected workers have found alternative employment, quit the labour force or emigrated. The rise in unemployment has been slow but steady."
Fallow On The Bank Guarantees
Brian Fallow looks at the latest bank guarantees in today's NZ Herald. He concludes
On the the face of it the designers have done their best to minimise the inevitable difficulties - boundary issues, moral hazard and the need for an exit strategy.
But there is no getting away from the fact that to the extent the facility is used, it heaps risk onto taxpayers and cost onto borrowers.
On the the face of it the designers have done their best to minimise the inevitable difficulties - boundary issues, moral hazard and the need for an exit strategy.
But there is no getting away from the fact that to the extent the facility is used, it heaps risk onto taxpayers and cost onto borrowers.
Dunne Story Raises Questions About Winston's Visit To The FAO
There is a story on the front page of the Dominion Post about Peter Dunne, a UN FAO fisheries management plan, and a $5,000 donation from a Mr Vela. This is disturbing enough. But it has set an alarm bell ringing. Remember Winston's famous trip to Vegas which followed an extended stay in Rome? What was the official business in Rome? A visit to the FAO. We have expressed surprise at this in the past as it is outside Winston's portfolio interests. But was it outside hiss wider interests?? We now need to know whether Winston raised fisheries issues while at the FAO. OIA anyone???? Maybe it will be best to wait until 9 November to submit this. Helen still seems to be standing by her man.
Winston's Helicopter Bluster Come Back To Bite
How did you interpret this?
"Let me ask you this question: Who would be campaigning from a helicopter unless they're going on a deer stalking expedition?" Mr Peters thundered on TVNZ's Agenda programme yesterday.
"Have you seen me flying around in helicopters?" he went on.
"I'm asking you to use your intelligence and your memory: do you recall me flying around in helicopters in any campaign?
"Let's have some sense, some sanity here.
"Which politician worldwide would campaign from a helicopter. Don't be so stupid."
This was Winston's reaction to the story about him demanding a helicopter from Vela in 1999.
Well we knew about him using helicopters in 2005, but what if there was photographic evidence from 1999 of Winston about to get into a helicopter? That would look as though once again Winston has sought to mislead us.
Well by chance the Dominion Post has been given a copy of just such a photo by former NZ First candidate Gray Eatwell, and it is proudly displayed on page A2 of today's paper. It appears above and here is the article that goes with the story....
"Let me ask you this question: Who would be campaigning from a helicopter unless they're going on a deer stalking expedition?" Mr Peters thundered on TVNZ's Agenda programme yesterday.
"Have you seen me flying around in helicopters?" he went on.
"I'm asking you to use your intelligence and your memory: do you recall me flying around in helicopters in any campaign?
"Let's have some sense, some sanity here.
"Which politician worldwide would campaign from a helicopter. Don't be so stupid."
This was Winston's reaction to the story about him demanding a helicopter from Vela in 1999.
Well we knew about him using helicopters in 2005, but what if there was photographic evidence from 1999 of Winston about to get into a helicopter? That would look as though once again Winston has sought to mislead us.
Well by chance the Dominion Post has been given a copy of just such a photo by former NZ First candidate Gray Eatwell, and it is proudly displayed on page A2 of today's paper. It appears above and here is the article that goes with the story....
Can anyone identify the helicopter? It displays the letters "HFV" under the rotor.
We Agree With The Greens
An enquiry into the links between Winston Peters and the Vela family, and cash for policy outcomes, would seem to be warranted. How common is this practice in New Zealand? This from the Dominion Post.
The Green Party has called for a commission of inquiry into the Winston Peters cash-for-policies allegations.
Greens co-leader Russel Norman said allegations that the Vela family - worth $180 million - had an insider within NZ First, manipulating its racing, fishing and tax policies, were "deadly serious".
Prime Minister Helen Clark has refused to retract earlier expressions of confidence in Mr Peters.
On Saturday, The Dominion Post revealed that former National MP Ross Meurant brokered donations from the Vela family to NZ First before the 1999 election and later took a taxpayer-funded job as policy adviser to Mr Peters. Mr Meurant told the Velas, he would be able to frame friendly policy in areas they were interested in.
Mr Peters has dismissed the reports as "another tissue of lies". Asked by one newspaper if he denied the allegations made in The Dominion Post, he said: "Deny them? They are just fantasyland rubbish. My name is not on any of those papers."
In fact, his name is on page after page of memos and reports by Mr Meurant to Phillip Vela. Notes from one meeting made by Mr Meurant record Mr Peters as saying he had saved Vela interests "millions in tax liability".
Mr Norman said "there needs to be a look at what is the best way, should it be some kind of commission of inquiry ... to get to the bottom of it ... "
The Green Party has called for a commission of inquiry into the Winston Peters cash-for-policies allegations.
Greens co-leader Russel Norman said allegations that the Vela family - worth $180 million - had an insider within NZ First, manipulating its racing, fishing and tax policies, were "deadly serious".
Prime Minister Helen Clark has refused to retract earlier expressions of confidence in Mr Peters.
On Saturday, The Dominion Post revealed that former National MP Ross Meurant brokered donations from the Vela family to NZ First before the 1999 election and later took a taxpayer-funded job as policy adviser to Mr Peters. Mr Meurant told the Velas, he would be able to frame friendly policy in areas they were interested in.
Mr Peters has dismissed the reports as "another tissue of lies". Asked by one newspaper if he denied the allegations made in The Dominion Post, he said: "Deny them? They are just fantasyland rubbish. My name is not on any of those papers."
In fact, his name is on page after page of memos and reports by Mr Meurant to Phillip Vela. Notes from one meeting made by Mr Meurant record Mr Peters as saying he had saved Vela interests "millions in tax liability".
Mr Norman said "there needs to be a look at what is the best way, should it be some kind of commission of inquiry ... to get to the bottom of it ... "
Nov 2, 2008
Has Helen Written Winston Off?
Sounded pretty much like it on the Prime interview with her tonight.
Did anyone else notice the pleas to vote Labour? The Greens are really making inroads.
Did anyone notice that helen doesn't read the polls the rest of us read "every poll I have read suggests that Labour + Green = National"?
Did anyone else notice the pleas to vote Labour? The Greens are really making inroads.
Did anyone notice that helen doesn't read the polls the rest of us read "every poll I have read suggests that Labour + Green = National"?
Heads Falling Off The Hydra?
If there was any doubt that Winston is eliminated from NZ politics then it was probably extinguished in tonight's One News poll. So one head of the Hydra is gone.
And did anyone hear tonight's debate on the environment on Radio New Zealand National???
Huge friction between Jim Anderton (who was very good) and Comrade Norman.
This tends to confirm the information flowing in about the Greens making HUGE inroads into the Labour vote. Will Labour make 30?? Who are Steffan Browning, Mojo Mathers and Quentin Duthie? We may all know who they are next Saturday night......
And did anyone hear tonight's debate on the environment on Radio New Zealand National???
Huge friction between Jim Anderton (who was very good) and Comrade Norman.
This tends to confirm the information flowing in about the Greens making HUGE inroads into the Labour vote. Will Labour make 30?? Who are Steffan Browning, Mojo Mathers and Quentin Duthie? We may all know who they are next Saturday night......
Should We Trust Labour With Economy Any Longer?
No, would be the answer if you believe the analysis from Doug Graham (brother of aspiring Green MP Ken) in today's Sunday Star Times (we don't read this publication anymore but a reader sent through the link)
Despite Labour coming to office in an economic upswing, nine years on, our score sheet makes sober reading. Of the 24 determinants of our living standards, most are in the low and deteriorating category. There are thousands more civil servants and to pay for them the personal income tax take increased 36% and corporate tax by a whopping 101%. So when other countries reduced the tax take we increased ours. Our total productivity grew only 0.4% per annum compared with an average of 2.3% per annum in the previous eight years. Inflation is over the top of the target band. Our GDP per capita growth is below all Australian states except Tasmania and we languish in 21st place out of 30 in the OECD. Our annual trade and services deficit has risen from 6% to almost 9% of GDP despite strong terms of trade, and the cost of servicing the extra borrowing to finance that increased from 17% to 25% of exports. Household debt interest payments have increased from about 7% to 14% of disposable income. Spending on welfare, despite low unemployment, has ballooned from $13 billion to about $17b. Our best people are leaving in droves.
Unfortunately we have failed to lock in the benefits of the good times and had a big spend-up. Now we face a severe world downturn. Labour invites us to "trust" it to get us out of it. The polls are suggesting not many will be accepting the invitation.
Despite Labour coming to office in an economic upswing, nine years on, our score sheet makes sober reading. Of the 24 determinants of our living standards, most are in the low and deteriorating category. There are thousands more civil servants and to pay for them the personal income tax take increased 36% and corporate tax by a whopping 101%. So when other countries reduced the tax take we increased ours. Our total productivity grew only 0.4% per annum compared with an average of 2.3% per annum in the previous eight years. Inflation is over the top of the target band. Our GDP per capita growth is below all Australian states except Tasmania and we languish in 21st place out of 30 in the OECD. Our annual trade and services deficit has risen from 6% to almost 9% of GDP despite strong terms of trade, and the cost of servicing the extra borrowing to finance that increased from 17% to 25% of exports. Household debt interest payments have increased from about 7% to 14% of disposable income. Spending on welfare, despite low unemployment, has ballooned from $13 billion to about $17b. Our best people are leaving in droves.
Unfortunately we have failed to lock in the benefits of the good times and had a big spend-up. Now we face a severe world downturn. Labour invites us to "trust" it to get us out of it. The polls are suggesting not many will be accepting the invitation.
Labour Miscalculates
The Hearld on Sunday has for the past three weeks been running a small article by Alice Hudson called The Spin. This asks some expert commentators for their views on big opinion forming events from the week that passed. Last week it was Lockie's reporting of comments from growers and Jeanette's bungy jump. Today Alice looks at Labour's attempted dirt-raking. How has it played? According to Dr Claire Robinson, Head of Massey University's Institute of Communication and Design (and soon to be communications manager at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade) "Labour's latest move had left it looking silly"...."It suggests that Labour is scraping the bottom of the barrel" ...."Kiwi voters were typically turned off by common or garden variety muck-raking".
Can the editors of The Standard draw the above to the attention of Batman please.
Can the editors of The Standard draw the above to the attention of Batman please.
Do Political Blogs Make A Difference?
The Herald on Sunday today features a blog post from Norightturn which asks "Do political blogs make a difference?"
Idiot/Savant who writes NRT says that answer. according to academics studying the 2005 election was "not really".
We look forward to reading the political analysis done on 2008. We suspect that the answer might be different. Political blogs still don't have mass appeal in New Zealand - Kiwiblog being perhaps the exception - but readership is growing, and the quality of that readership is improving greatly. The impact of the blogs is mostly on those who impact wider public opinion rather than directly influencing the average voter. And in that regard there are few politicians, journalists, business leaders, lobbyists, communications managers etc who are not reading and monitoring the blogs on a regular basis. Some people are even leaving it to the blogs to filter their news for them while the media monitoring services are summarising the most read blogs for their clients. In turn those involved in communications are now beginning to use the blogs as they would the wider media to try and influence opinion one way or another.
Idiot/Savant who writes NRT says that answer. according to academics studying the 2005 election was "not really".
We look forward to reading the political analysis done on 2008. We suspect that the answer might be different. Political blogs still don't have mass appeal in New Zealand - Kiwiblog being perhaps the exception - but readership is growing, and the quality of that readership is improving greatly. The impact of the blogs is mostly on those who impact wider public opinion rather than directly influencing the average voter. And in that regard there are few politicians, journalists, business leaders, lobbyists, communications managers etc who are not reading and monitoring the blogs on a regular basis. Some people are even leaving it to the blogs to filter their news for them while the media monitoring services are summarising the most read blogs for their clients. In turn those involved in communications are now beginning to use the blogs as they would the wider media to try and influence opinion one way or another.
Monthly Metrics
Thanks again Tim Selwyn and Tumeke for the blog ranking service. Here are our statistics for October. Our readership continues to grow but the growth was not as spectacular as September. Our readership in Georgia and Russia has dropped off and we are now banned from the Ministry of Health.
NZ Political Blog Rank #4 (last month #8)
Likely Tumeke Blog Rank Score 1,624 (1,637)
Alexa 3-Month Average Ranking 235,902 (280,180)
Alexa NZ Ranking 332 (372)
Technorati Rank 113,548 (96,621)
Technorati Authorities 55 (68) - We can't quite figure Technorati out.
Unique visits - 45,942- 1,482 average a day (44,421)
Page views 71,945 (74,100)
Average Highest # of comments on a post 11
Number of posts 340 (76.77 per week)
Where do people read The Hive?
NZ 40,648
US 1,608
Aus 1,227
UK 570
HK 261
Last month we were read by all states in the US except Mississippi.
Thank you for reading The Hive.
NZ Political Blog Rank #4 (last month #8)
Likely Tumeke Blog Rank Score 1,624 (1,637)
Alexa 3-Month Average Ranking 235,902 (280,180)
Alexa NZ Ranking 332 (372)
Technorati Rank 113,548 (96,621)
Technorati Authorities 55 (68) - We can't quite figure Technorati out.
Unique visits - 45,942- 1,482 average a day (44,421)
Page views 71,945 (74,100)
Average Highest # of comments on a post 11
Number of posts 340 (76.77 per week)
Where do people read The Hive?
NZ 40,648
US 1,608
Aus 1,227
UK 570
HK 261
Last month we were read by all states in the US except Mississippi.
Thank you for reading The Hive.
HOS Calls For Next Government To Have A Clear Mandate
We agree with the Editorial in today's Herald on Sunday, the next Government needs a strong and clear mandate. It needs to be stable if we are to survive in the stormy financial seas that are if anything growing more stormy. Will the proposed AXIS Hydra have that clear mandate and provide the desired stability? We don't think so.
The HOS editorial concludes as follows:
And so, with a week to go, the polls suggest there is a mood for change. But the incoming Government needs to have a clear and unequivocal mandate. The crisis enveloping global financial systems will call for strong leadership from decision-makers untrammelled by the need to pander to the competing desires of coalition partners. The worst thing that voters could do on Saturday is to try to second-guess the main party leaders with so-called strategic voting.
We need a clear result to strengthen the hand on the tiller in the stormy seas ahead.
On Winston (we can't resist)
For no matter how much Peters harrumphs and blusters, the donations fiasco has revealed him to be both a hypocrite and a man whose doubletalk has been hard to distinguish from calculated deceit. Clark would need to ask herself whether she should rely, like every administration in the MMP era, on such a perverse dissembler to keep her on the ninth floor of the Beehive. She may believe that she has a political mission to fulfil and that it is fair to resort to any expedient within the rules that allows her to do that. But a real leader knows when the prize is not worth the price.
In the end, Clark may not face that choice, since Peters will probably be consigned to the oblivion he so richly deserves. But she also faces the question of whether a minority Government she leads would have a legitimate claim to power. If Labour were to win significantly fewer party votes than National and yet assemble a ramshackle coalition with the Greens, the Maori Party and the Progressives, Clark could end up with a constitutional hold on power to which it had no moral entitlement. A Government so formed would risk being seen as cynically corrupting the intentions of MMP, which could lead to a regrettable backlash against proportional representation. And a Government whose very existence runs counter to the plainly expressed will of the people is not likely to go down very well in the country that invented the concept of the fair go.
The HOS editorial concludes as follows:
And so, with a week to go, the polls suggest there is a mood for change. But the incoming Government needs to have a clear and unequivocal mandate. The crisis enveloping global financial systems will call for strong leadership from decision-makers untrammelled by the need to pander to the competing desires of coalition partners. The worst thing that voters could do on Saturday is to try to second-guess the main party leaders with so-called strategic voting.
We need a clear result to strengthen the hand on the tiller in the stormy seas ahead.
On Winston (we can't resist)
For no matter how much Peters harrumphs and blusters, the donations fiasco has revealed him to be both a hypocrite and a man whose doubletalk has been hard to distinguish from calculated deceit. Clark would need to ask herself whether she should rely, like every administration in the MMP era, on such a perverse dissembler to keep her on the ninth floor of the Beehive. She may believe that she has a political mission to fulfil and that it is fair to resort to any expedient within the rules that allows her to do that. But a real leader knows when the prize is not worth the price.
In the end, Clark may not face that choice, since Peters will probably be consigned to the oblivion he so richly deserves. But she also faces the question of whether a minority Government she leads would have a legitimate claim to power. If Labour were to win significantly fewer party votes than National and yet assemble a ramshackle coalition with the Greens, the Maori Party and the Progressives, Clark could end up with a constitutional hold on power to which it had no moral entitlement. A Government so formed would risk being seen as cynically corrupting the intentions of MMP, which could lead to a regrettable backlash against proportional representation. And a Government whose very existence runs counter to the plainly expressed will of the people is not likely to go down very well in the country that invented the concept of the fair go.
Ralston On The H-Fee Bomb
Bill Ralston looks at the importance of the so-called neutron bomb to Labour's re-election strategy and what it means for Labour now that the bomb has blown up in Labour's face.
Helen Clark's tumble over the furniture in the Riccarton Mall last week was not the only slip-up she made.
Far worse for her was the misfire of Labour's long awaited "neutron bomb" designed to take out John Key.
Labour has been sniffing around the 20-year-old saga of the H-Fee for at least a year, dropping hints for most of that time to journalists that it had Key "dead to rights".
It was to be the last-minute "ankle tap" on National, designed to collapse its vote in the same way the Exclusive Brethren affair did to Don Brash at the last election.
Labour became such believers in the power of this "scandal" that it became a central part of its election strategy.
The use of the word "trust" in Labour's slogan is there because the H-Fee affair was planned to detonate 10 days from the election and make voters see plainly that they could not trust Key.
Other smaller neutron bombs were also planned to discredit other National MPs and complete the rout.
Was Clark Involved?
Helen Clark immediately went into her usual damage control mode by putting as much distance between herself and it as possible.
Labour's desperate digging for dirt where there was none was instantly labelled "Mike's Crusade" by the Beehive. Once again, Labour president Mike Williams is being hung out to dry.
Clark admits she knew what he was doing but implies he was doing it on his own initiative.
Yet Williams and the Clark are in daily communication about all aspects of the campaign and it beggars belief that she would not have the same firm hand on this vital element of Labour's strategy as she does on every other part of what Labour is doing.
As members of the taxpayer-funded Government Research Unit were being used to analyse the documents that had been dug up, it is impossible to believe Williams was acting alone.
For Williams to use members of the Government Research Unit then presumably either the Prime Minister's office or one of her senior ministers, such as Pete Hodgson, must have authorised their use.
There can be no doubt the H-Fee neutron bomb was designed to be the cornerstone of Labour's secret campaign strategy.
So what will the electoral impact be?
New Zealanders have an innate sense of fair play and this latest grubby attempt to smear Key will not win Labour any votes and will help swing sympathy to the National Party leader.
The tragedy is that Helen Clark is a brilliant campaigner who does not need dirty tricks and smear campaigns to help her win. She has proved that at every election since 1990.
The fizzer of a neutron bomb also distracts us from a very good range of initiatives Labour has put together to fight the coming dark days of the international financial crisis.
It only further distracts voters from the real issue of deciding which party has the best deal for them.
Labour forgot the one big message that is heard every October in the run-up to Guy Fawke's night. Do not play with fireworks, they can blow up in your face.
Helen Clark's tumble over the furniture in the Riccarton Mall last week was not the only slip-up she made.
Far worse for her was the misfire of Labour's long awaited "neutron bomb" designed to take out John Key.
Labour has been sniffing around the 20-year-old saga of the H-Fee for at least a year, dropping hints for most of that time to journalists that it had Key "dead to rights".
It was to be the last-minute "ankle tap" on National, designed to collapse its vote in the same way the Exclusive Brethren affair did to Don Brash at the last election.
Labour became such believers in the power of this "scandal" that it became a central part of its election strategy.
The use of the word "trust" in Labour's slogan is there because the H-Fee affair was planned to detonate 10 days from the election and make voters see plainly that they could not trust Key.
Other smaller neutron bombs were also planned to discredit other National MPs and complete the rout.
Was Clark Involved?
Helen Clark immediately went into her usual damage control mode by putting as much distance between herself and it as possible.
Labour's desperate digging for dirt where there was none was instantly labelled "Mike's Crusade" by the Beehive. Once again, Labour president Mike Williams is being hung out to dry.
Clark admits she knew what he was doing but implies he was doing it on his own initiative.
Yet Williams and the Clark are in daily communication about all aspects of the campaign and it beggars belief that she would not have the same firm hand on this vital element of Labour's strategy as she does on every other part of what Labour is doing.
As members of the taxpayer-funded Government Research Unit were being used to analyse the documents that had been dug up, it is impossible to believe Williams was acting alone.
For Williams to use members of the Government Research Unit then presumably either the Prime Minister's office or one of her senior ministers, such as Pete Hodgson, must have authorised their use.
There can be no doubt the H-Fee neutron bomb was designed to be the cornerstone of Labour's secret campaign strategy.
So what will the electoral impact be?
New Zealanders have an innate sense of fair play and this latest grubby attempt to smear Key will not win Labour any votes and will help swing sympathy to the National Party leader.
The tragedy is that Helen Clark is a brilliant campaigner who does not need dirty tricks and smear campaigns to help her win. She has proved that at every election since 1990.
The fizzer of a neutron bomb also distracts us from a very good range of initiatives Labour has put together to fight the coming dark days of the international financial crisis.
It only further distracts voters from the real issue of deciding which party has the best deal for them.
Labour forgot the one big message that is heard every October in the run-up to Guy Fawke's night. Do not play with fireworks, they can blow up in your face.
Disagreements Within NZ First
Yesterday's information about cash for policy payments to NZ First involving Ross Meuraant have highlighted growing tension within the NZ First team. NZ First, as we all know, is as tighly controlled by Winston as Adolf Hitler controlled the Nazi Party. Election returns can't be filed on time because Winston needs to see them first etc. If you slip up or challenge the leader you are out - just look at the way Dail Jones has been treated. So it is highly unusual for NZ First MPs to be questioning the Leader's judgement, let alone in public. But today, in the Herald on Sunday this is just what has happened.
Yesterday, Ron Mark said he had warned Peters about his involvement with Meurant: "I have no relationship with Ross, other than advising Winston he should have nothing to do with him."
Peter Brown, the party's deputy leader, said Meurant's comments were "bullshit" and he was playing up his own importance.
Brown, too, had expressed concerns about working with the lobbyist. "I went to Winston privately," Brown said. "I just said to him, `I don't know what's wrong with the guy, all I know is that something adverse will happen _ it's not a question of if, but when'. But the boss knew him from old and got on quite well with him."
Dail Jones, another NZ First MP, described Meurant as "irrelevant" and criticised his work.
Yesterday, Ron Mark said he had warned Peters about his involvement with Meurant: "I have no relationship with Ross, other than advising Winston he should have nothing to do with him."
Peter Brown, the party's deputy leader, said Meurant's comments were "bullshit" and he was playing up his own importance.
Brown, too, had expressed concerns about working with the lobbyist. "I went to Winston privately," Brown said. "I just said to him, `I don't know what's wrong with the guy, all I know is that something adverse will happen _ it's not a question of if, but when'. But the boss knew him from old and got on quite well with him."
We must say, we are with Ron Mark and Peter Brown on Meurant (we took a dislike to the man in 1981 during the Springbok Tour), but then unlike Winston, we did not go to school with Meurant.
Dail Jones, another NZ First MP, described Meurant as "irrelevant" and criticised his work.
Nov 1, 2008
Campaign Feedback - Inside The Hydra
Jeanette Fitzsimons is very confident.
Many Labour candidates are really angry with Mike Williams.
There are growing signs of panic in Labour. Labour is losing support at both ends - National and Green. The Green support has grown strongly in the past week.
There is growing discontent within NZ First. No one believes Winston anymore, and with unemployment pending tempers are beginning to fray.
Many Labour candidates are really angry with Mike Williams.
There are growing signs of panic in Labour. Labour is losing support at both ends - National and Green. The Green support has grown strongly in the past week.
There is growing discontent within NZ First. No one believes Winston anymore, and with unemployment pending tempers are beginning to fray.
Fran On The Bomb
This will put the PM off her cornflakes
Labour Party president Mike Williams must have been tired and emotional or greatly deluded to believe he was finally on the track of a "neutron bomb" which would blast National leader John Key's election campaign into smithereens.
The upshot of Williams' lunatic attempt to try and link Key with the notorious 1988 H-fee scam - when no such evidence has been uncovered - is that Labour is now (rightfully) scrambling to fight off accusations that it is more interested in launching smears against its opponents than fighting a fair election at a time of extreme international financial turbulence.
The Prime Minister's pathetic attempt to distance herself from Williams' ham-fisted behaviour lasted a mere 24 hours before she was forced to confirm the Labour Party paid for what she initially described as his "private mission".
So what does this mean?
Just as in 1984, 1990 and 1999, there will be a surge of energy as Kiwis get excited over the new Government's plans. Key will have vast resources at his command and plenty of minders to keep him on track.
No one will care about the ins and outs of a 20-year-old scam when more pressing problems like this country's financial future are at stake.
Clark will be securing her next job offshore. Williams will be preparing to resign from his five plum state directorships. Winston Peters will be a (thankfully) distant memory.
Unless of course Clark - the ultimate pragmatist - tells Labour supporters in Tauranga to give their electorate vote to Peters and scraps together enough post-election allies to get her over the line. Your choice.
Labour Party president Mike Williams must have been tired and emotional or greatly deluded to believe he was finally on the track of a "neutron bomb" which would blast National leader John Key's election campaign into smithereens.
The upshot of Williams' lunatic attempt to try and link Key with the notorious 1988 H-fee scam - when no such evidence has been uncovered - is that Labour is now (rightfully) scrambling to fight off accusations that it is more interested in launching smears against its opponents than fighting a fair election at a time of extreme international financial turbulence.
The Prime Minister's pathetic attempt to distance herself from Williams' ham-fisted behaviour lasted a mere 24 hours before she was forced to confirm the Labour Party paid for what she initially described as his "private mission".
So what does this mean?
Just as in 1984, 1990 and 1999, there will be a surge of energy as Kiwis get excited over the new Government's plans. Key will have vast resources at his command and plenty of minders to keep him on track.
No one will care about the ins and outs of a 20-year-old scam when more pressing problems like this country's financial future are at stake.
Clark will be securing her next job offshore. Williams will be preparing to resign from his five plum state directorships. Winston Peters will be a (thankfully) distant memory.
Unless of course Clark - the ultimate pragmatist - tells Labour supporters in Tauranga to give their electorate vote to Peters and scraps together enough post-election allies to get her over the line. Your choice.
Herald Editorial Points Out Latest Clark Slip Up
Helen claimed the Herald was wrong. But Audrey Young was right.
Policy made on the hoof is rarely good policy. Never is this more evident than in the final days of election campaigns, when parties are wrestling for votes.
Many a pre-election pledge has fallen victim to a more considered judgment in the aftermath of the contest. That will almost certainly happen to unemployment relief packages released this week by the two major parties.
With recession aggravated by the international credit crisis, National and Labour have been falling over each other to reassure those fearful of losing their jobs. They have also been falling over themselves.
National was first out of the blocks with a vague proposal to help highly mortgaged people keep their homes while temporarily unemployed. Labour responded with a plan to help working couples with a job search allowance if one of them was made redundant.
Haste came at a cost, however. The Prime Minister, whose command of policy is normally impeccable, yesterday accused the Herald of misreporting one of the details.
In fact, she was wrong. Obviously Labour's scheme had been thrown together too quickly for her to fully acquaint herself with its abatement regime. Such are the perils of policy made on the hoof.
Policy made on the hoof is rarely good policy. Never is this more evident than in the final days of election campaigns, when parties are wrestling for votes.
Many a pre-election pledge has fallen victim to a more considered judgment in the aftermath of the contest. That will almost certainly happen to unemployment relief packages released this week by the two major parties.
With recession aggravated by the international credit crisis, National and Labour have been falling over each other to reassure those fearful of losing their jobs. They have also been falling over themselves.
National was first out of the blocks with a vague proposal to help highly mortgaged people keep their homes while temporarily unemployed. Labour responded with a plan to help working couples with a job search allowance if one of them was made redundant.
Haste came at a cost, however. The Prime Minister, whose command of policy is normally impeccable, yesterday accused the Herald of misreporting one of the details.
In fact, she was wrong. Obviously Labour's scheme had been thrown together too quickly for her to fully acquaint herself with its abatement regime. Such are the perils of policy made on the hoof.
Labour Trips Up On Its Own Arrogance
Strong language from John Armstrong in this morning's NZ Herald. We agree fully
In the wake of the Prime Minister slipping and falling while going walkabout in a Christchurch shopping mall, those of unkind mind have noted the same thing happened to John Howard in the lead-up to last year's Australian election.
Both Prime Ministers quickly recovered their poise. But Howard, of course, went on to lose. If the same fate befalls Helen Clark next Saturday, then this week may have been the turning point in the 2008 election.
That will have nothing to do with Clark tumbling flat on her face. But Labour did trip itself up this week, the cynicism and arrogance of power coming back to bite it with a vengeance. That was most obvious in Labour's latest attempt to dredge up something, anything, in John Key's foreign exchange dealing past which might make voters question whether National's leader has the integrity worthy of a prime minister.
In the wake of the Prime Minister slipping and falling while going walkabout in a Christchurch shopping mall, those of unkind mind have noted the same thing happened to John Howard in the lead-up to last year's Australian election.
Both Prime Ministers quickly recovered their poise. But Howard, of course, went on to lose. If the same fate befalls Helen Clark next Saturday, then this week may have been the turning point in the 2008 election.
That will have nothing to do with Clark tumbling flat on her face. But Labour did trip itself up this week, the cynicism and arrogance of power coming back to bite it with a vengeance. That was most obvious in Labour's latest attempt to dredge up something, anything, in John Key's foreign exchange dealing past which might make voters question whether National's leader has the integrity worthy of a prime minister.
Helen Admits Labour Paid
For Mike Williams trip to Melbourne to try and unearth dirt on John Key. We imagine that those who have donated to Labour will be less than pleased. But more importantly why did the PM try and mislead us on this point when it was first raised? This election is all about trust.
More Details On Pages A6 and A7
Of the Dominion Post. The documents are summarised by date. It was nice of Winston to place two advertisements in the Dominion Post today. People will be able to compare and contrast. Is he all about communities first or protecting seniors first? Or is it about Winston First? Helicopter anyone?
Peters And The Money Man
We can see why the leaders of the Axis Hydra were so worried last night. One of their heads has an enourmous headache. It looks as though Meurant has bleated. There we have it in black and white full detail of Winston's money for policy outcome with the Vela family. And we also get a ueful insight into Winston's real personality. And all on the front page of the Dominion Post. 7 days before the election this is very bad news for Winston and for those who have defended him.
Read all about the money......
And read about the demands for the NZ First helicopter....
Well done Phil Kitchin.
Read all about the money......
And read about the demands for the NZ First helicopter....
Well done Phil Kitchin.
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