The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Tracking Poll has yet to get it wrong for the Republican primaries. McCain has a huge lead in key states, New Jersey (54% to Romey's 23%), New York (49% to Romney's 23%), Missouri (36% to Romney's 22%). The only real contest is California where Romney has a lead 37% to McCain's 34%.
We will update tonight or first thing tomorrow.
Feb 4, 2008
Colin Espiner On Benson-Pope
Colin Espiner blogged yesterday on Labour Party nomination for Dunedin South
The fact that Labour was prepared to dump a sitting MP and former Cabinet minister with a majority of more than 10,000 in one of the safest seats in the country for a complete political newcomer shows just how much Prime Minister Helen Clark and her party wanted him gone.
The fact that Labour was prepared to dump a sitting MP and former Cabinet minister with a majority of more than 10,000 in one of the safest seats in the country for a complete political newcomer shows just how much Prime Minister Helen Clark and her party wanted him gone.
Alan Williams
The heavy dark sky and drizzle over Wellington this morning is reflective of the gathering gloom in the public service over the news that MFAT Deputy Secretary Alan Williams died yesterday. Alan was one of the nicest and most capable people around. He would, without doubt, have been the MFAT CEO had he lived longer. He must also have been a potential candidate for the PMs Department job had he not made it to MFAT this time around. Alan was widely known around town thanks to the key role he played some years back as Foreign Policy Advisor to the PM. Alan's death after many months of battling cancer is a great loss to MFAT and the nation. The Hive's thoughts are with Alan's family at this difficult time.
What Is Worse - Building A Cell Phone Tower Or Negotiating A Free Trade Agreement?
Communications are essential for all economies and for the well being of the people in all societies. We don't have too much concern over an SOE being involved in the construction off essential infrastructure in Myanmar (in fact we aare pleased that another SOE is engageed in export activity). We also wonder why the focus is on Kordia when the New Zealand Government is meeting regularly with officials and Ministers from Myanmar as part of the negotiaation of an FTA between ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand. Which is worse?
Big Drop In Business Confidence
The Dominion Post is reporting a big drop in business confidence in Wellington. Couple this with the reduced dairy output as a result of poor rain in Taranaki and the Waikato, and conditions might not be as potentially inflationary as the Reserve Bank thinks. We hope that both the Reserve Bank and those speculating on the continuation of high interest rates in New Zealand (by borrowing in Japan to invest in NZ$ high interest accounts) read this business confidence survey closely.
Curran Comes Out Fighting
Clare Curran attacks Fran O'Sullivan and Nick Smith in today's NZ Herald. In so doing she makes a couple of BIG mistakes. She has just ensured that the media spotlight is going to stay on her, and probably intensify (and knowing what we know about Ms Curran we wouldn't be doing that if we were her). She also rakes over the coals of the SSC report which she is suggesting has vindicated her. We don't think it has. She doesn't quote the e-mail from Minister Parker's Private Secretary describing the closeness of her relationship with Minister Parker for example. She would have been wiser to let things lie. There remain many questions about the proriety of her appointment and the nature of the role she played while working for MfE.
Audrey Young seems to be in similar space to us on this in her article in the NZ Herald today.
She does not come without risks, with an inquiry about whether her contracts at the Environment Ministry were the result of political connections. The inquiry was published just before Christmas last year and National will be tempted to do more with it when the House resumes next week. Lucky for her the target is Energy Minister David Parker and Clark's adviser Heather Simpson, but the mud may still stick to her.
It is going to be interesting to see how the good people in Dunedin South react to all this over the next few months.
Audrey Young seems to be in similar space to us on this in her article in the NZ Herald today.
She does not come without risks, with an inquiry about whether her contracts at the Environment Ministry were the result of political connections. The inquiry was published just before Christmas last year and National will be tempted to do more with it when the House resumes next week. Lucky for her the target is Energy Minister David Parker and Clark's adviser Heather Simpson, but the mud may still stick to her.
It is going to be interesting to see how the good people in Dunedin South react to all this over the next few months.
Feb 3, 2008
Has The New Zealand Government Taken Up The Cause Of The Jailed Saudi Blogger?
We still have no evidence of action by the Labour-led Government on behalf of Saudi Arabian blogger Fouad Al-Farhan. We monitor Government statements and websites regularly, but have still to spot a statement of support (there have been several statements about matters foreign by the PM and so far this year Winston Peters has welcomed the return to civilian rule in Thailand, announced his visit to Antarctica, and he has expressed alarm over developments in Kenya).
Ironically, it has been suggested to us that too much pressure on this issue might be unhelpful for New Zealand campaigns being planned for membership of the UN Human Rights Council and for the Security Council. Hang on - Human Rights Council? Wouldn't support for freedom of speech be helpful in bolstering our credentials? Apparently not. So it has hit us. A road to Damascus experience. We have the Electoral Finance Act all wrong. It has nothing to do with the Exclusive Bretheren. Instead it is all about harmonising international practice, bringing New Zealand closer to our supporters in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. If we can't beat China and Saudi Arabia, why not join them?
Meanwhile there appears to be mounting concern about the physical safety of Fouad Al-Farhan. Amnesty International frears that he might be being tortured.
Ironically, it has been suggested to us that too much pressure on this issue might be unhelpful for New Zealand campaigns being planned for membership of the UN Human Rights Council and for the Security Council. Hang on - Human Rights Council? Wouldn't support for freedom of speech be helpful in bolstering our credentials? Apparently not. So it has hit us. A road to Damascus experience. We have the Electoral Finance Act all wrong. It has nothing to do with the Exclusive Bretheren. Instead it is all about harmonising international practice, bringing New Zealand closer to our supporters in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. If we can't beat China and Saudi Arabia, why not join them?
Meanwhile there appears to be mounting concern about the physical safety of Fouad Al-Farhan. Amnesty International frears that he might be being tortured.
Nauru : A Failed State
One of us heard Helen Hughes (an Australian academic) being interviewed on radio the other day. She was talking about the fact that Nauru has ceased to be viable, that is was essentially a faailed state surviving only on handouts from Australia and Taiwan. She suggested that the best way forward was for Australia to offer Nauru the opportunity to enter into free-association with Australia. We couldn't track down an easy means to point readers to a sound version of this interview but we have found a recent article from Hughes that covers similar ground.
But Nauru could negotiate an association status with Australia that would give its people access to work and residence in Australia. Aid would immediately be focused on education, perhaps including the technical college sought by Nauru's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kieren Keke, so that Nauruans could opt for permanent employment in and hence emigration to Australia.
Hughes said on radio that the opposition to this ideaa comes from Australian officials, particularly those in DFAT who seem to think that the UN wouldn't like such a development.
This seems to be so similar to the Tokelau situaation, where the people have twice said that they don't want change, but NZ officials keep trying to persuade them to move to independence. Why? So that they look good in the United Nations.
Thanks to Radio NZ for drawing this story to our attention.
But Nauru could negotiate an association status with Australia that would give its people access to work and residence in Australia. Aid would immediately be focused on education, perhaps including the technical college sought by Nauru's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kieren Keke, so that Nauruans could opt for permanent employment in and hence emigration to Australia.
Hughes said on radio that the opposition to this ideaa comes from Australian officials, particularly those in DFAT who seem to think that the UN wouldn't like such a development.
This seems to be so similar to the Tokelau situaation, where the people have twice said that they don't want change, but NZ officials keep trying to persuade them to move to independence. Why? So that they look good in the United Nations.
Thanks to Radio NZ for drawing this story to our attention.
Media Watch: The Influence Of The New Media
Media Watch this morning on National Radio was looking at the US Presidential race and talking about the growing influence of the new media (blogs and the internet etc) on the news media and the race for the Presidency. It was worth a listen.
We note that David Farrar is due to speak in Wellington on the same subject on 7 March.
We note that David Farrar is due to speak in Wellington on the same subject on 7 March.
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Thanks for reading The Hive.
Alexa 1 week average ranking 457,876 (last week 597,891)
Alexa NZ Ranking 2,451 (last week 3,603)
Technorati Rank 380,354 (962,510 last week) 25 Authorities (8 last week)
Unique visits this week 1,437 (last week 1,279)
Page views this week 2,260 (last week 2,318)
We are up on all measures apart from page views.
Thanks for reading The Hive.
Anton Oliver Takes Government On Over Energy And Climate Change Policy
There were some rumours last year that All Black Anton Oliver (the thinking person's All Black) might be one of Labour's secret weapons for the election. We don't think so. In today's Sunday Star Times (we can't find an electronic version yet sorry) Anton he writes a thoughtful piece looking at the wider implications of wind power.
In it he says
"the Labour-led government has its blinkers on trying to make up for its gross miscalculation of our Kyoto obligations come 2012 (which, rather than deliver us a profit as Labour initially declared, will, according to Business New Zealand projections, cost us as much as $3 billion), frantically searching for alternative revenue streaas - hence its renewed interest in carbon credits and emissions trading - to pay for its imcompetence."
Later he asks
"Is this what our SOEs have become? Revenue-generating engines that externalise our environmental and cultural heritage so that the current government can offer bribery - tax cuts - come election year?"
Welcome to political purgatory Anton. Nothing hurts more than the truth. We have been in the same state for a while and it isn't all that bad.
Anton's article is on A9 of the Wellington version of the SST. It is well worth a read. he also looks at the operation of the RMA, the lack of a well thought out energy strategy, and the relationship between Meridian and Rio Tinto. This is all interesting stuff.
In it he says
"the Labour-led government has its blinkers on trying to make up for its gross miscalculation of our Kyoto obligations come 2012 (which, rather than deliver us a profit as Labour initially declared, will, according to Business New Zealand projections, cost us as much as $3 billion), frantically searching for alternative revenue streaas - hence its renewed interest in carbon credits and emissions trading - to pay for its imcompetence."
Later he asks
"Is this what our SOEs have become? Revenue-generating engines that externalise our environmental and cultural heritage so that the current government can offer bribery - tax cuts - come election year?"
Welcome to political purgatory Anton. Nothing hurts more than the truth. We have been in the same state for a while and it isn't all that bad.
Anton's article is on A9 of the Wellington version of the SST. It is well worth a read. he also looks at the operation of the RMA, the lack of a well thought out energy strategy, and the relationship between Meridian and Rio Tinto. This is all interesting stuff.
Helen Of Destroy
A day after The Hollow Women, Helen now has to contend with Helen of Destroy. Chris Trotter continues his trip into the heart of the electorate's darkness and explores again why Helen Clark iss turning people away from Labour, even the former Labour faithful...
It's in the air literally. An angry chorus of talkback callers all beating the same grim tattoo: "Helen must go."
It's difficult to respect some of the puerile justifications for this embittered unanimity but there's no disputing its reality.
The former Labour voters are the worst. Their diatribes against the prime minister are infused with a particular venom.
It's in the air literally. An angry chorus of talkback callers all beating the same grim tattoo: "Helen must go."
It's difficult to respect some of the puerile justifications for this embittered unanimity but there's no disputing its reality.
The former Labour voters are the worst. Their diatribes against the prime minister are infused with a particular venom.
Another Example Of Political Taint
Not a major, but this e-mail stuff-up shows again the extent to which the public service has become partisan.
Does Wellington Need Two World Class Cooking Schools?
Deborah Coddington looks at the controversy in the Wairarapa over the plan to put a Cordon Bleu cooking school into Martinborough. The school would be part of UCOL.
Unfortunately Deborah doesn't ask the most obvious question. Why in an area with a population of less than 500,000 are we proposing to build a second cooking school with international connections. We already have an absolutley fantastic cooking school with strong international links at Weltec (headed by probably New Zealand's best chef).
How much public money is going into the proposed Martinborough venture? Would it not be better spent making the already excellent school at Weltec even better?
The Hive understands that this a classic case of public policy gone wrong. Worried about the numbers for the Wellington Regional Strategy a year or so ago, a deal was done to get the three Wairarapa Mayors on side. These important and logical questions would stop being asked and the Wairarapa could get its project so long as the three Mayors got in behind the rest of the strategy.
Well of perhaps lesser importance, we would also like to know why UCOL has decided to go the Cordon Bleu route? It is a joke in many culinary circles.
Unfortunately Deborah doesn't ask the most obvious question. Why in an area with a population of less than 500,000 are we proposing to build a second cooking school with international connections. We already have an absolutley fantastic cooking school with strong international links at Weltec (headed by probably New Zealand's best chef).
How much public money is going into the proposed Martinborough venture? Would it not be better spent making the already excellent school at Weltec even better?
The Hive understands that this a classic case of public policy gone wrong. Worried about the numbers for the Wellington Regional Strategy a year or so ago, a deal was done to get the three Wairarapa Mayors on side. These important and logical questions would stop being asked and the Wairarapa could get its project so long as the three Mayors got in behind the rest of the strategy.
Well of perhaps lesser importance, we would also like to know why UCOL has decided to go the Cordon Bleu route? It is a joke in many culinary circles.
Why The Secrecy Over China FTA?
Fran O'Sullivan assembles all the public source information on the China FTA in today's NZ Herald and asks legitimate questions about the quality of the deal
But once the brouhaha dies down and cabinet ministers pass through the self-congratulatory phase, the hard questions will start over just how good a deal the Government has got on behalf of New Zealand businesses and farmers.
She also looks at the politics of the deal
From a New Zealand Government perspective, senior ministers will have to deal with criticism from the Greens (on the labour and environmental fronts) and possibly New Zealand First and the Maori Party.
The Government will need to pass enabling legislation for the China free-trade deal to proceed. The bottom line is that Labour will be able to count on National's vote. Goff has already briefed National's Trade spokesman, Tim Groser, on the broad ambit of the deal.
But, if the Government does not get the atmospherics right, there could still be some sticky moments at the select committee phase, particularly as the negotiations have been conducted in an unduly secretive fashion.
The Hive understands that the legal work on the deal is still being worked through - maybe as we type, so things could go wrong. But why is Government being so slow to share the detail of the deal with those that are likely to benefit most, New Zealand exporters? The truth is that some detail has been shared with some affected parties. Fonterra has a very good idea about what is going on in dairy and the retailers seem to know something the rest of us don't know about a mutual recognition agreement on electrical goods. Why is the Government being so selective?
The Hive thinks that the China FTA is indeed going to be a good news story for New Zealand but if we are not careful, the anti-trade lobby and the protectionists could hijack the issue. We encourage Minister Goff to be questioning all all advice being received from MFAT (by far the least open of any Government agency other that the intelligence agencies) about the need for secrecy. All those affecteed by the likely deal should be informed of probable gains. This will allow them to prepare to take full advantage of the deal, and will encourage these parties to be public in their support - once this appropriate - and vocal in their criticism of those opposing the deal. The Government is going to need help on this. National will be helpful on the voting front in Parliament, but will Groser, McCully and Key really be stomping the country building up support for the Government on this one?
But once the brouhaha dies down and cabinet ministers pass through the self-congratulatory phase, the hard questions will start over just how good a deal the Government has got on behalf of New Zealand businesses and farmers.
She also looks at the politics of the deal
From a New Zealand Government perspective, senior ministers will have to deal with criticism from the Greens (on the labour and environmental fronts) and possibly New Zealand First and the Maori Party.
The Government will need to pass enabling legislation for the China free-trade deal to proceed. The bottom line is that Labour will be able to count on National's vote. Goff has already briefed National's Trade spokesman, Tim Groser, on the broad ambit of the deal.
But, if the Government does not get the atmospherics right, there could still be some sticky moments at the select committee phase, particularly as the negotiations have been conducted in an unduly secretive fashion.
The Hive understands that the legal work on the deal is still being worked through - maybe as we type, so things could go wrong. But why is Government being so slow to share the detail of the deal with those that are likely to benefit most, New Zealand exporters? The truth is that some detail has been shared with some affected parties. Fonterra has a very good idea about what is going on in dairy and the retailers seem to know something the rest of us don't know about a mutual recognition agreement on electrical goods. Why is the Government being so selective?
The Hive thinks that the China FTA is indeed going to be a good news story for New Zealand but if we are not careful, the anti-trade lobby and the protectionists could hijack the issue. We encourage Minister Goff to be questioning all all advice being received from MFAT (by far the least open of any Government agency other that the intelligence agencies) about the need for secrecy. All those affecteed by the likely deal should be informed of probable gains. This will allow them to prepare to take full advantage of the deal, and will encourage these parties to be public in their support - once this appropriate - and vocal in their criticism of those opposing the deal. The Government is going to need help on this. National will be helpful on the voting front in Parliament, but will Groser, McCully and Key really be stomping the country building up support for the Government on this one?
Feb 2, 2008
Far Left Faction Wins Another Nomination
Clare Curran, friend of David Parker, and former writer for Communist publications in Australia, has beaten David Benson-Pope and secured the Labour nomination for the apparently safe Dunedin South electorate. Phil Goff better move fast on the leadership because many of the recent nominations have been to the left of the party.
Fran Not The Only Columnist To Take Issue With Government Excuses
An attack, using that most vicious of weapons - satire (reductio ad absurdum to be precise), on the reasons used by Police and Government to explain the current crime wave has come from an unusual quarter - Noelle McCarthy writing in today's NZ Herald
I thought of the mistral, the idiot wind, this week as police and politicians fell over themselves to blame everything from midsummer madness to full moon fever for the homicides that have whipped us into a frenzy over the past few weeks. Ten murders since the start of the year. Among those dead: the young, the beautiful, the hard-working, the innocent.
As the politicians haven't stopped reminding us, every single one of these murders is one too many. But another consequence of these violent crimes is widespread media madness. In the last few weeks we've been subjected to all manner of rhetorical hand-wringing, breathless reportage and purple prose.
Into this climate of Endtimes come the mystical burblings of our politicians. On a visit to the scene of the latest shootings in Flat Bush, the Police Minister attributed the recent spate of violence in the area not to any of the usual suspects like drugs, or drink or gangs or tagging or even "the parents", but rather to the altogether more poetical combination of the hot summer and a full moon.
Yes. The sun and the moon. My own transgressions under this particular conjunction of elements tend more towards the carnal than the murderous and bloodthirsty, but who am I to argue with the reasoned and expert analysis of the minister in charge of police? It's certainly a new way of explaining social ills. One that has more in common with the world view of Medieval peasants perhaps, but definitely entertaining nonetheless. I look forward to hearing more of our politicians and public servants explaining daily contretemps in this manner. How much more fun to hear about arson due to fire breathing dragons?
Or white-collar fraud when mercury enters the Second House of Saturn? Fishing quotas disrupted by marauding Kraken?
Listen closely and you can almost hear the mistral howling through the space between their ears.
Good stuff Noelle. We doubt that you will have too many difficulties finding companionship next time there is an alignment between Sun and Moon!!
I thought of the mistral, the idiot wind, this week as police and politicians fell over themselves to blame everything from midsummer madness to full moon fever for the homicides that have whipped us into a frenzy over the past few weeks. Ten murders since the start of the year. Among those dead: the young, the beautiful, the hard-working, the innocent.
As the politicians haven't stopped reminding us, every single one of these murders is one too many. But another consequence of these violent crimes is widespread media madness. In the last few weeks we've been subjected to all manner of rhetorical hand-wringing, breathless reportage and purple prose.
Into this climate of Endtimes come the mystical burblings of our politicians. On a visit to the scene of the latest shootings in Flat Bush, the Police Minister attributed the recent spate of violence in the area not to any of the usual suspects like drugs, or drink or gangs or tagging or even "the parents", but rather to the altogether more poetical combination of the hot summer and a full moon.
Yes. The sun and the moon. My own transgressions under this particular conjunction of elements tend more towards the carnal than the murderous and bloodthirsty, but who am I to argue with the reasoned and expert analysis of the minister in charge of police? It's certainly a new way of explaining social ills. One that has more in common with the world view of Medieval peasants perhaps, but definitely entertaining nonetheless. I look forward to hearing more of our politicians and public servants explaining daily contretemps in this manner. How much more fun to hear about arson due to fire breathing dragons?
Or white-collar fraud when mercury enters the Second House of Saturn? Fishing quotas disrupted by marauding Kraken?
Listen closely and you can almost hear the mistral howling through the space between their ears.
Good stuff Noelle. We doubt that you will have too many difficulties finding companionship next time there is an alignment between Sun and Moon!!
Can McCain Beat Either Clinton Or Obama?
We have withheld our reasons for thinking that John McCain will triumph over either Clinton or Obama in the Presidential election later in the year, because we are still refelcting on the reaction to these ideas from a table of quite startled Democrats with whom one of us dined earlier in the week. The Democrats were absolutely convinced that the US was determined that it was time for a change and that no Rebublican had a chance. These people were so convinced we have been doing a reality check. This is still work in progress, but the attached poll result seems to show, nationwide, that it would be pretty much neck and neck between McCain and either Clinton or Obama.
The Hollow Women
Fran O'Sullivan has just ruined the PM's weekend. Her column in today's NZ Herald is worth reading from several perspectives, but the bits we like the best relate to Fran's reaction to the PM's speech on Wednesday. Like The Hive Fran appears to have been disappointed by the PM's attempts to look to the past to find blame for current problems.
Prime Minister Helen Clark's attempt to take the wind from John Key's election sails, by claiming today's young violent criminals are the children of "the mother of all budgets", betrays an element of desperation.
Toss in Police Minister Annette King's claim that the hot summer and full moon have contributed to a mad January in South Auckland and you would have to wonder when Nicky Hager will get around to penning a sequel to The Hollow Men.
If the spate of summer madness afflicting the Beehive continues, The Hollow Women promises to be a pre-election best-seller.
But Fran goes further. She reminds us why the Bolger Government had to introduce the mother of all budgets, and it is this, rather than coining "The Hollow Women" phrase that we are sure will hang around to haunt for the rest of the year, that will really worry Helen:
Clark's not on solid ground when it comes to hidden agendas. As deputy Prime Minister and Labour's key strategist at the 1990 election she helped perpetrate the big lie of that campaign.
In 1990, New Zealand was teetering towards economic recession. But the Labour Cabinet kept claiming right up to election day that the Government's accounts were in surplus.
National Prime Minister Jim Bolger's plans for a decent society were scuppered when he was confronted by officials just one day after the election with news of a serious fiscal crisis that they had kept secret under Labour's orders.
The Bank of New Zealand was about to go belly-up, something senior Labour ministers had known about for weeks, and the Treasury was forecasting a $3.7 billion deficit for the 1991/92 year which would blow out to a $5.2 billion deficit by 1993/94 unless drastic actions were taken.
Bolger's Cabinet had to cut costs to avert a major credit rating downgrade for New Zealand.
These are the conditions that led to the mother of all budgets.
But beneficiaries were not the only ones to feel pain.
New Zealand businesses folded as the recession bit and many Kiwis lost their jobs and were forced into major reductions in their living standards. It was a horrible time because the country was broke.
I'm sure we would rather have been prepared for the hard times ahead by a truthful Government instead of being conned by the snow-job perpetrated by Clark and her senior colleagues at the 1990 election.
We should all be reflecting on the Clark of 1990 and the Clark of 2008. Read her speech again. Are her assurances about the health of the New Zealand economy, the strength of business confidence ringing true for you? They aren't here at The Hive. Add in the uncertainties created by a climate change policy response that hasn't been properly analysed or costed, and Clark could be about to bequeath problems of even great order than those that Bolger inherited.
Prime Minister Helen Clark's attempt to take the wind from John Key's election sails, by claiming today's young violent criminals are the children of "the mother of all budgets", betrays an element of desperation.
Toss in Police Minister Annette King's claim that the hot summer and full moon have contributed to a mad January in South Auckland and you would have to wonder when Nicky Hager will get around to penning a sequel to The Hollow Men.
If the spate of summer madness afflicting the Beehive continues, The Hollow Women promises to be a pre-election best-seller.
But Fran goes further. She reminds us why the Bolger Government had to introduce the mother of all budgets, and it is this, rather than coining "The Hollow Women" phrase that we are sure will hang around to haunt for the rest of the year, that will really worry Helen:
Clark's not on solid ground when it comes to hidden agendas. As deputy Prime Minister and Labour's key strategist at the 1990 election she helped perpetrate the big lie of that campaign.
In 1990, New Zealand was teetering towards economic recession. But the Labour Cabinet kept claiming right up to election day that the Government's accounts were in surplus.
National Prime Minister Jim Bolger's plans for a decent society were scuppered when he was confronted by officials just one day after the election with news of a serious fiscal crisis that they had kept secret under Labour's orders.
The Bank of New Zealand was about to go belly-up, something senior Labour ministers had known about for weeks, and the Treasury was forecasting a $3.7 billion deficit for the 1991/92 year which would blow out to a $5.2 billion deficit by 1993/94 unless drastic actions were taken.
Bolger's Cabinet had to cut costs to avert a major credit rating downgrade for New Zealand.
These are the conditions that led to the mother of all budgets.
But beneficiaries were not the only ones to feel pain.
New Zealand businesses folded as the recession bit and many Kiwis lost their jobs and were forced into major reductions in their living standards. It was a horrible time because the country was broke.
I'm sure we would rather have been prepared for the hard times ahead by a truthful Government instead of being conned by the snow-job perpetrated by Clark and her senior colleagues at the 1990 election.
We should all be reflecting on the Clark of 1990 and the Clark of 2008. Read her speech again. Are her assurances about the health of the New Zealand economy, the strength of business confidence ringing true for you? They aren't here at The Hive. Add in the uncertainties created by a climate change policy response that hasn't been properly analysed or costed, and Clark could be about to bequeath problems of even great order than those that Bolger inherited.
Good News About The Carry Trade
The NZ Herald carries a Reuters article suggesting that the carry trade is "rapidly phasing from the scene". The practice of borrowing in low interest countries such as Japan and investing in high interest economies such a New Zealand has contributed directly to the over valuation of the New Zealand dollar in the last three years. That in turn has placed great pressure on the export sector. If this article is correct, the recent rise of the New Zealand dollar as a result of the cuts in US interest rates and stronger than expected trade balance figures, may be short lived.
Feb 1, 2008
Republican Right Moving Back To McCain
Some have said that the Republican Right will never vote for McCain. We have always said that this is absurd. Given a choice between voting for McCain or Clinton/Obama it seems obvious that the Right will prefer McCain.
This analysis from this morning's New York Times seems to be confirming that we are correct.
This analysis from this morning's New York Times seems to be confirming that we are correct.
State Of The Blogs
An interesting post by the ex-expat today looking at the different types of blogs around this year and the personalities behind them. We like reading the ex-expat and have just elevated her to a "Blog We Recommend" status.
The Barrie Saunders Article
Kiwiblog has been proactive and obtained and blogged a copy of Barrie's excellent article from yesterday. You can read it here. Thanks David for getting this.
Government Changes Seasonal Worker Policy
We spent some time in late December commenting on problems being experienced by the horticulture industries in Hawkes Bay and Central Otago. Having spent a bit of time complaining about bad policy it is great to be able to say well done to the Government for agreeing to make changes to policy in this area. This update was on Morning Report.
Why Interest Free Student Loans Are Dumb, Dumb, Dumb
A reader has asked us why we think interest free student loans are bad policy.
We were just about to explain when we read this from Business New Zealand. It says pretty much what we wanted to say.
Friday, 1 February 2008, 12:02 pmPress Release: Business New Zealand
1 February 2008
Vote-buying over student loans disappointing
Both main parties are vote-buying over student loans, says Business NZ Chief Executive Phil O'Reilly.
"The interest-free student loan policy is costing New Zealanders more than half a billion dollars each year - money that New Zealand as a whole gets no social value from. Adding in 'repayment bonuses' will make that cost even higher.
"This is money that is being diverted from funding teachers, facilities and world-class research.
"We have severe skills shortages in our workplaces and many young people are leaving school without enough skills to contribute to the workplace. Tertiary institutions can't get the funding to attract and keep key staff.
"There is some good work going on in education policy, but much more needs to be done. Pouring money into interest-free student loans is not addressing our fundamental needs in tertiary education."
We were just about to explain when we read this from Business New Zealand. It says pretty much what we wanted to say.
Friday, 1 February 2008, 12:02 pmPress Release: Business New Zealand
1 February 2008
Vote-buying over student loans disappointing
Both main parties are vote-buying over student loans, says Business NZ Chief Executive Phil O'Reilly.
"The interest-free student loan policy is costing New Zealanders more than half a billion dollars each year - money that New Zealand as a whole gets no social value from. Adding in 'repayment bonuses' will make that cost even higher.
"This is money that is being diverted from funding teachers, facilities and world-class research.
"We have severe skills shortages in our workplaces and many young people are leaving school without enough skills to contribute to the workplace. Tertiary institutions can't get the funding to attract and keep key staff.
"There is some good work going on in education policy, but much more needs to be done. Pouring money into interest-free student loans is not addressing our fundamental needs in tertiary education."
Differing Approaches To Climate Change Between Australia And New Zealand
Now that Australia has joined New Zealand back in the Kyoto camp, The Hive would like to begin encouraging the New Zealand Government to put unlilateralism to one side, and try and work as closely as possible with the new Australian Government on climate change policy response.
In this context we read with great interest the predictions contained in yesterday's Trans Tasman on the latest thinking from the Rudd Government. What struck us most was the fact that business impact is central to Rudd's concerns and is the key factor at play in determining the design of the Australian scheme. We don't see this issue as being anything like as important in the New Zealand Government's mind.
The other comment that jumped out at us was from the CEO of the Andromeda Group Robert Clarke who warns that "90% of Australian companies are still under-prepared to manage the commercial risks associated with future cuts in greenhouse emissions". This is a frightening statistic. How many New Zealand companies are prepared we wonder?????
In this context we read with great interest the predictions contained in yesterday's Trans Tasman on the latest thinking from the Rudd Government. What struck us most was the fact that business impact is central to Rudd's concerns and is the key factor at play in determining the design of the Australian scheme. We don't see this issue as being anything like as important in the New Zealand Government's mind.
The other comment that jumped out at us was from the CEO of the Andromeda Group Robert Clarke who warns that "90% of Australian companies are still under-prepared to manage the commercial risks associated with future cuts in greenhouse emissions". This is a frightening statistic. How many New Zealand companies are prepared we wonder?????
What To Do About The SSC?
As Barrie Saunders noted in his excellent article yesterday the new SSC head is going to have to play a major role in re-establishing the political netrality of the public service (we still can't find this article on the Stuff or Dominion Post websites sorry).
For this reason we favour an temporary appointment to fill the "gap" left by Mark Prebble. We are not saying that there will be a change of Government in November, but even the most ideologically sound Labour cabinet members admit that this is a real possibility. So rather than risk appointing someone who might not have the full confidence of a new Government (whoever it might be) it would seem wise to appoint a recently retired CEO or some other safe pair of hands for a 9 month contract, and make the permanent appointment in about March 2009. As Trans-tasman noted yesterday such a process would be "the convention". Another advantage is that a temporary appointee could be used as a change agent. There is a problem that needs to be cleaned up. Get someone in who doesn't mind ruffling a few feathers and forcing the required changes.
We hope that all parties agree that the good name of the public service has been sullied in the last couple of years. Lets not look to blame anyone for allowing this to happen. Instead, let's, in a bi-partisan way, try and put things back the way they were. As we noted yesterday we have to move fast. If things are not turning around before a new Government settles in, the alternative is to go the US way. Have a complete spill at the top, and start again with appointees that the new Government has full confidence in. The Hive doesn't really want to see this happen, but would rather it happened in an overt and transparent manner, rather than the politicisation through stealth that we have seen in recent years.
For this reason we favour an temporary appointment to fill the "gap" left by Mark Prebble. We are not saying that there will be a change of Government in November, but even the most ideologically sound Labour cabinet members admit that this is a real possibility. So rather than risk appointing someone who might not have the full confidence of a new Government (whoever it might be) it would seem wise to appoint a recently retired CEO or some other safe pair of hands for a 9 month contract, and make the permanent appointment in about March 2009. As Trans-tasman noted yesterday such a process would be "the convention". Another advantage is that a temporary appointee could be used as a change agent. There is a problem that needs to be cleaned up. Get someone in who doesn't mind ruffling a few feathers and forcing the required changes.
We hope that all parties agree that the good name of the public service has been sullied in the last couple of years. Lets not look to blame anyone for allowing this to happen. Instead, let's, in a bi-partisan way, try and put things back the way they were. As we noted yesterday we have to move fast. If things are not turning around before a new Government settles in, the alternative is to go the US way. Have a complete spill at the top, and start again with appointees that the new Government has full confidence in. The Hive doesn't really want to see this happen, but would rather it happened in an overt and transparent manner, rather than the politicisation through stealth that we have seen in recent years.
Trans Tasman Now Doubts Rice Will Visit
We posted the following on 13 December:
The Hive is monitoring developments in relations between the US and New Zealand closely. If this was the cold war, and if the two countries were being scrutinised closely by intelligence agencies, red flags would be raised. What is going on?? We understand that there are five Congressional delegations due in New Zealand between now and February and there is a high level official from the State Department due also (Trans Tasman keeps reporting this as Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, but we think that it is more likely to be US Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, Paula Dobriansky. Dobriansky is a heavy hitter - she is currently leading the US delegation to the Bali Climate Change meeting, and would be the most senior visitor from the State Department for many, many years). She did speak at the US-NZ Partnership Forum in Washington in 2006, and is known to take a close interest in the relationship.
Paula did visit in January.
Yesterday Trans-Tasman wrote that the hopes of a visit by Rice seem to have been dashed. It goes on to repeat the Government spin that this is nothing to do with the imrpoving New Zealand relationship but all due to scheduling. For once we agree with the spin machine. Our own sources seemed to indicate as much - see our post of 24 January.
The mystery that remains is what is happening on the trade front? An announcement on P4 expansion was expected in January. We had guessed that Goff might get to announce this after meeting his US counterpart at Davos - but he did not go to Davos.
The Hive is monitoring developments in relations between the US and New Zealand closely. If this was the cold war, and if the two countries were being scrutinised closely by intelligence agencies, red flags would be raised. What is going on?? We understand that there are five Congressional delegations due in New Zealand between now and February and there is a high level official from the State Department due also (Trans Tasman keeps reporting this as Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, but we think that it is more likely to be US Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, Paula Dobriansky. Dobriansky is a heavy hitter - she is currently leading the US delegation to the Bali Climate Change meeting, and would be the most senior visitor from the State Department for many, many years). She did speak at the US-NZ Partnership Forum in Washington in 2006, and is known to take a close interest in the relationship.
Paula did visit in January.
Yesterday Trans-Tasman wrote that the hopes of a visit by Rice seem to have been dashed. It goes on to repeat the Government spin that this is nothing to do with the imrpoving New Zealand relationship but all due to scheduling. For once we agree with the spin machine. Our own sources seemed to indicate as much - see our post of 24 January.
The mystery that remains is what is happening on the trade front? An announcement on P4 expansion was expected in January. We had guessed that Goff might get to announce this after meeting his US counterpart at Davos - but he did not go to Davos.
Well Done Herald
The NZ Herald today picks up on one of the issues that The Hive has been suggesting deserves much closer attention by the New Zealand media - the competition between Taiwan and China in the Pacific and the potentially destablilising effect economic assistance from China and Taiwan can have in fragile societies. Today Dev Nadkarni looks at the implications of KMT (Chinese National Party) rule in Taiwan for Taiwan's aid policy in the Pacific.
While we applaud the fact that the Herald is running this article, we think that the author is overstating the potential extent of reconciliation between a KMT Government and China. And we remind readers that the amount of bribery and corruption inspired by Taiwan in the Pacific was just as great under the last KMT Government as the current DPP Government. So don't expect radical change in the Pacific either.
While we applaud the fact that the Herald is running this article, we think that the author is overstating the potential extent of reconciliation between a KMT Government and China. And we remind readers that the amount of bribery and corruption inspired by Taiwan in the Pacific was just as great under the last KMT Government as the current DPP Government. So don't expect radical change in the Pacific either.
The Danger Of Poorly Considered Government Environmental Policy
Two good news stories - the bigger than expected dairy exports statistics and Fonterra plans to build a big new processing plant in the South Island stand in sharp contrast with another article in The Press, one suggesting that Government was considering restrictions on the size of dairy herds "The situation was so dire the Government said yesterday it was considering regulations that could see farms shrink and limits on the size of dairy herds."
The Greens and some in Government may not like it but dairy farming remains one of the key drivers of our economy and attempts to restrict the growth in dairying restrict New Zealand's economic growth potential. On reflection, maybe they do like this fact and could this be their actual motivation?
The Hive recommends extreme caution in this area. By all means work to improve farm practices so that some of the negative environmental effects - eg water quality - are corrected, but don't do anything to hamper growth in the sector until we get a clearer picture of the overall greenhouse gas impact of dairying in New Zealand compared to other producers. There is a potential win/win here. It may be better for the world for dairy to be restricted elsewhere and expanded in New Zealand. New Zealand's greenhouse gas production might be higher than it might otherwise be, but global emissions might be lower as a result.
The worst possible outcome would be a policy which saw dairy restricted in relatively efficient New Zealand, forcing less efficient producers in Europe, US, Asia etc to expand production. Little old New Zealand would be proud of its world leadership and clean green image, but the global problem will be exacerbated. This is a global problem isn't it?
The Greens and some in Government may not like it but dairy farming remains one of the key drivers of our economy and attempts to restrict the growth in dairying restrict New Zealand's economic growth potential. On reflection, maybe they do like this fact and could this be their actual motivation?
The Hive recommends extreme caution in this area. By all means work to improve farm practices so that some of the negative environmental effects - eg water quality - are corrected, but don't do anything to hamper growth in the sector until we get a clearer picture of the overall greenhouse gas impact of dairying in New Zealand compared to other producers. There is a potential win/win here. It may be better for the world for dairy to be restricted elsewhere and expanded in New Zealand. New Zealand's greenhouse gas production might be higher than it might otherwise be, but global emissions might be lower as a result.
The worst possible outcome would be a policy which saw dairy restricted in relatively efficient New Zealand, forcing less efficient producers in Europe, US, Asia etc to expand production. Little old New Zealand would be proud of its world leadership and clean green image, but the global problem will be exacerbated. This is a global problem isn't it?
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