Fran O'Sullivan assembles all the public source information on the China FTA in today's NZ Herald and asks legitimate questions about the quality of the deal
But once the brouhaha dies down and cabinet ministers pass through the self-congratulatory phase, the hard questions will start over just how good a deal the Government has got on behalf of New Zealand businesses and farmers.
She also looks at the politics of the deal
From a New Zealand Government perspective, senior ministers will have to deal with criticism from the Greens (on the labour and environmental fronts) and possibly New Zealand First and the Maori Party.
The Government will need to pass enabling legislation for the China free-trade deal to proceed. The bottom line is that Labour will be able to count on National's vote. Goff has already briefed National's Trade spokesman, Tim Groser, on the broad ambit of the deal.
But, if the Government does not get the atmospherics right, there could still be some sticky moments at the select committee phase, particularly as the negotiations have been conducted in an unduly secretive fashion.
The Hive understands that the legal work on the deal is still being worked through - maybe as we type, so things could go wrong. But why is Government being so slow to share the detail of the deal with those that are likely to benefit most, New Zealand exporters? The truth is that some detail has been shared with some affected parties. Fonterra has a very good idea about what is going on in dairy and the retailers seem to know something the rest of us don't know about a mutual recognition agreement on electrical goods. Why is the Government being so selective?
The Hive thinks that the China FTA is indeed going to be a good news story for New Zealand but if we are not careful, the anti-trade lobby and the protectionists could hijack the issue. We encourage Minister Goff to be questioning all all advice being received from MFAT (by far the least open of any Government agency other that the intelligence agencies) about the need for secrecy. All those affecteed by the likely deal should be informed of probable gains. This will allow them to prepare to take full advantage of the deal, and will encourage these parties to be public in their support - once this appropriate - and vocal in their criticism of those opposing the deal. The Government is going to need help on this. National will be helpful on the voting front in Parliament, but will Groser, McCully and Key really be stomping the country building up support for the Government on this one?
