Dec 7, 2007

Economy To Slow In Election Year

The OECD is forecasting a slowing in the New Zealand economy in 2008, with growth dropping from 3% to 1.9%. It sees inflation at 3.2% as opposed to the Reserve Bank's 3.4% forecast. The OECD helpfully reminds us that New Zealand now has the highest interest rates in the industrialised world.

High Interest Rates Likely to Stay

Brian Fallow's column in today's NZ Herald is well worth a read. He analyses the latest forecasts from the Reserve Bank. The Hive team share his pessimism. While the current high interest rates are hitting home, there are more inflationary pressures on the horizon, with Labour trying to buy another election win, and with the Government's emissions trading regime due to increase costs further, starting next year. The inflationary effect of excessive Government expenditure is being felt most strongly in Wellington where wages and commercial rentals are both being pushed up substantially. It will be interesting to see how the unions and small and medium size business react when they realise how the new emissions trading regime is going to impact on them.

New Vested Interest Allegations Swirl Around Climate Change Leadership Forum

We have posted in the past about the alignment between the Business Council for Sustainable Development and the Labour led Government on emissions trading. New suggested of vested interests hijacking the process are reported today on page 4 of today's National Business Review. This article carries suggestions that NZX CEO Mark Weldon might be pushing his own interests with regard to the types of credits that might be tradeable under the New Zealand scheme. Specifically it seems that Weldon does not want cheap credits created by the downturn in the former Soviet Union economies to be accepted in New Zealand, even though these credits would greatly reduce the cost of complying with the new scheme for New Zealand business. The Hive understands that Weldon's plan has been opposed by Peter Neilson and Suzi Kerr from Motu, and have been subject to criticism from Business New Zealand's Phil O'Reilly.

The Hive can see where Weldon is coming from in terms of reputation for a carbon exchange, however, we do not believe that this should be the determinant of the policy direction that is followed. Surely the key to solving this GLOBAL problem is to get countries such as China, India and the US to sign up to binding commitments to control emissions. If it is, failing to accept credits that Russia and other economies have legitimate rights to sell would be sending all the wrong signals. And then there is the cost to New Zealand business angle. Should the interests of the overall economy be overridden by the interests of the NXZ? We think not.

Dec 6, 2007

Major Transport Infrastructure Pending For Wellington City

The Ngauranga to Airport Strategic Study was released this morning. Much of what The Hive team asked for is suggested. It will be interesting to read initial reaction. Submissions are due by 22 February. It is good to see other strong statements of support beginning to emerge.

Even More Worries For Winston and NZ First

A very good article in today's NZ Herald analyses the impact Winston's support for the Electoral Finance Bill will have on two key support groups - Grey Power and the Sensible Sentencing Trust.

Mallard Preparing To Exit Politics?

John Armstrong has an interesting analysis in today's NZ Herald. He concludes by noting that Mallard's behavior is suggestive of someone preparing for a change in career. Both Armstrong today and Audrey Young yesterday call for an apology from Mallard to Erin Leigh. We agree that such an apology is essential but also think that he should be apologising also to Parliament for misleading it, and in accordance with the fine Westminister tradition he should then tender his resignation as a Minister.

The Need For A Second Road Tunnel Through Mount Victoria

The Dominion Post has a good front page article quoting Mayor Prendergast's sensible views on the need for a second Mount Victoria Tunnel. As we post this, Regional Council Chair Fran Wilde and Mayor Kerry Prendergast are briefing the media on the options identified by Transit New Zealand for improved transport links between Ngauranga and the airport. At The Hive we believe that we need two extra lanes between Ngauranga and Aotea Quay, a second Terrace tunnel, a new interchange at the Basin Reserve, a second Mount Victoria road tunnel, and four lanes between the Mount Victoria tunnels and the airport. We need improved bus services, road tolling/ congestion /or cordon pricing. And we can't see why the private sector can't be allowed to build some of this infrastructure.

The photograph in the Dominion Post from the 1969 election campaign says alot. This wish list has essentially been on the table for 40 years. And we love the placard beying held by Bill and Joan Young "This tunnel was fine for 1928 vintage cars. A second tunnel is needed for the 1970s".

Dec 5, 2007

Farrar And Drury Party While Queen Bee Toils

Queen Bee has left the National Party Christmas drinks to bring you news about Hugh Logan and the discussion at the Ministerial Advisory Group on Trade Policy which met this afternoon. Phil O'Reilly moved straight from drinking with Phil Goff to drinks with the Nats so this is hot off the press. Goff seemed upbeat about China and the Gulf Cooperation Council, but was downbeat on the WTO and the rest. He got a hard time for negotiating free trade deals with muslim countries from the wine industry and some strong serves about a need for New Zealand to do more work on the relationship between the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO. Industry and NGOs want New Zealand to take a lead role on this at Bali.

Three Strikes And You Are Out

Hugh Logan has had to apologise again. Time to go Hugh. And Mallard should go too. He mislead the House. In the UK he would be straight out the door.

More Trouble From Brazil and India At Doha WTO Negotiation

According to international media reports (nothing in the local media on this of course, even though New Zealand has more to gain from a successful conclusion of negotiations than most) India and Brazil have been criticising the latest texts on the table in the WTO negotiations.

"India and Brazil criticised two new sets of proposals in the Doha round of trade talks at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Tuesday, signalling that wide gaps in the negotiations remain despite recent progress.
The two developing countries, who play a major role in the talks, said that a U.S.-EU proposal to free up trade in environmental goods was little more than a disguised attempt to boost sales of goods of rich nations.
They also said a negotiating text on "rules" -- anti-dumping, subsidies and fisheries subsidies -- was a step backwards that excessively accommodated U.S. concerns.
India also expressed alarm that the key agriculture talks were tilting too much towards the needs of rich countries and were ignoring the requirements of the sub-continent's millions of subsistence farmers."

This is concerning, particularly, as we reported yesterday, the need to get this negotiation finished before a change in US Administration has become even more urgent.

Great Speech By Sam Knowles This Morning

Kiwibank CEO Sam Knowles gave a great talk this morning to a full room at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce. He talked about how to establish more fast growth medium sized enterprises in New Zealand. A summary of his talk is now up on the Chamber site.

CEO Goes Early At Capital and Coast District Health Board

Margot Mains has decided to toss the towel in even earlier according to articles on both the Hearald and DominionPost websites. We think that this was a wise move Margot.

It will be interesting now to watch whether Prime Ministerial aspirant, and Minister of Health, David Cunliffe can risk not stepping in to fire the Board. It has been good to see all that extra tax take, and all the surpluses so wisely spent on essential services such as health!

The Link Between The Electoral Finance Act and The Climate Change Emissions Trading Bill

Fran O'Sullivan has written another good think piece in the NZ Herald. This time she comments on the constraints that will be imposed on business in fighting for necessary changes to the emissions trading regime by the Electoral Finance Act's $120,000 threshold. She suggests that this is no coincidence..........

Dec 4, 2007

Climate Change Bill Tabled

The Government tabled its climate change bill a day later than it had anticipated. Cabinet appears to have made some minute changes yesterday, so the bill could not be printed until overnight. There were also market reaction issues to manage around the second part of the bill which seeks to enact the Government's commitment to renewable electricity generation through imposing a 10 year moratorium on new thermal generation. The delay means that bill will not have its first reading until next week. It will go to select committee. The plan is for submissions to close around the end of February, and for a report back in June/July. There is one positive - Government appears to have done some listening on the 50,000 tonne emission threshold. The Hive team are still very concerned at the trail blazing nature off this policy. We would bee much more comfortable if we moved at the same time as major trading partners. Business New Zealand, the Greenhouse Policy Coalition and the Major Electricity Users Group have all been critical.

New Chief Negotiator For ASEAN FTA

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has issued the following statement:

Lead Negotiator for ASEAN - Australia/NZ FTA
Following the announcement of Martin Harvey as New Zealand’s incoming High Commissioner to Singapore, Vangelis Vitalis has been appointed as the new Lead Negotiator for the ongoing ASEAN–Australia/New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA).
An economics and politics graduate of Auckland and Harvard Universities, Vangelis brings to the position a wealth of international economic experience.
Alongside his MFAT experience, Vangelis has worked for the Secretariat of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as working with the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministries of Finance in Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and Ashgabad (Turkmenistan) on currency reform and technical aspects of their WTO accession applications.
More recently, Vangelis has been New Zealand’s senior negotiator on a range of WTO-related issues including rules, environment and development. He has also been the senior negotiator on investment, labour and environment in New Zealand’s ongoing FTA negotiations, including with its partners in the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership, China and for the AANZFTA.

This fellow has an extremely good reputation and it is good to see that there will be some continuity in this negotiating team. However, The Hive team were surprised to read that Vitalis was a Harvard Graduate. We had been under the impression that he was an LSE man (ie an even more left leaning institution).

Hillary Clinton's Expresses Alarming Views on Doha Round

The Financial Times yesterday carried a front page article which gives more cause for concern about Hillary Clinton's views on trade policy. Earlier in the year she opposed the proposed US Korea FTA. Yesterday she questioned the worth of the WTO's Doha Round. She also seems to be suggesting a need to renegotiate the WTO's environment provisions: "I am concerned by provisions that would prevent countries from enforcing stronger environmental and safety rules under the WTO. I think we have to take a hard look at this [the Doha Round] and do it in the right way." Unfortunately for Hillary the chances of getting the WTO to do this are close to zero.
The FT article also states "Mrs Clinton has also attacked trade agreements that do not include provisions to protect workers and that do not enforce higher environmental standards."
While alarming, these comments will hopefully act to remind Governments that it is absolutely essential to conclude the WTO Doha negotiations as quickly as possible. The Doha Round has to be completed before the US Presidential elections.
While discouraging from a global perspective (doesn't everyone believe that the WTO is the most important game in town?) these comments from Clinton are vaguely encouraging for New Zealand's chances of securing an FTA with the US. The Hive team believes that few if any potential partners are better placed to agree the type of provisions President Hillary Clinton would want on labour and environment standards than New Zealand.

New Zealand First's Difficulties

There is a good opinion piece by John Armstrong on the difficulties facing NZ First and Winston Peters in today's NZ Herald. It emphasises the high stakes that Winston will be playing for if he stands again for Tauranga, the seat that rejected him last time around. It also notes the potentially negative implications for Winston electorally of his close association with the Labour led Government.

Trans Tasman Wealth Gap - Tax To Blame?

Following hard on the heels of the UN report which showed that New Zealand has been treading water, another report has been released which highlights the growing wage gap between Australian and New Zealand workers. Unhelpfully, the NZPA report quoted today by the Fairfax Group reminds readers that the latest report "was released in the wake of recent statistics that showed more than 40,000 New Zealanders permanently departed to Australia in the year ended September 2007. Also the OECD estimates that 24.2 percent of New Zealanders with a tertiary education are living overseas, compared with just 2.5 percent of Australians in the same category."



Some quotes:



"Phil Rennie, from the New Zealand Policy Unit of Australia's Centre for Independent Studies (CIS), cites lower tax rates in Australia, higher labour productivity and better investment opportunities for the growing gap.
His report, titled "Why is Australia so much richer than New Zealand?", explores why Australia's per capita GDP of $48,000 is 32 percent higher than its trans-Tasman neighbour's of $36,400.
"This difference is remarkable given that the two countries enjoyed the same level of income for most of the 20th century," Rennie wrote.
"From the 1970s onwards, both countries were hit by economic shocks, recession, bad policy and painful reforms, yet Australia has pulled through this period in much better shape than New Zealand."
The report examines the impact of size, distance and natural resources, but is sceptical on their impact.
Rennie said the resource boom's impact on Australian growth was often "overrated", with exports making up 21 percent of its GDP compared with 29 percent for New Zealand.
The big difference was labour productivity, the report found.
Australian workers produce one-third more wealth for every hour worked, largely because they have more capital (machinery and technology) to work with.
The report questioned the argument that New Zealand's low level of saving was the culprit, forcing firms to borrow money at higher interest rates overseas.
But perhaps the biggest contrast between the nations was the level of tax and spending.
OECD figures from 2005 cited in the report, revealed Australians paid 31 percent of GDP in tax, compared with 38 percent in New Zealand.
"New Zealand is now the highest-taxed English-speaking nation in the OECD," Rennie said.
"Clearly this level of taxation will have an impact on economic growth, because it transfers money away from the entrepreneurial sector and makes investing, employing and working less rewarding."
"Once the next phase of Australian tax cuts is implemented by the new Labor government, a New Zealand worker on $46,000 (the average wage) will be paying twice as much income tax as he or she would be on the equivalent salary in Australia."

Dec 3, 2007

Trouble For Government Climate Change Bill?

The Hive posted earlier today, then removed, a rumour of a delay in the tabling of the Government's climate change Bill. Another source said that the rumours were false, but as of 9.30pm The Hive team have yet to see the Bill. If it is not tabled by early tomorrow, the Government is going to have fun meeting the proposed timeline for getting the Bill to select committee and to start the submissions process before the Christmas recess. Maybe the Government doesn't want too informed a discussion at tomorrow's Climate Change Leadership Forum meeting at Villa Maria in Auckland. Or might the troubles that David Parker has caused be taking their toll on his reputation on the 9th floor? Or is the Government not wanting Trevor Mallard's mauling in Parliament - following close on the heels of his star appearance in court today- to overshadow the proposed centrepiece of the Government's re-election campaign?

The Hive's view is that the Government would be wise to delay the introduction of the Bill. The PM should suggest to Rudd that we work together on an emmissions trading regime. This will reduce the chances of NZ industry leaving home. At present we are proposing to move ahead of all our trading partners.

China FTA

Morning Report carried and good item on where things stand with the negotiation.

Climate Change Legislation Due To Be Tabled Today

We will provide an initial reaction once we have had a chance to read the draft bill. It is due to have its first reading on 6 December. It is then dues to be referred to the Finance and Expenditure Committee. Submissions will be called for before Parliament rises for the Christmas break.

Defence Will Keep Goff Busy In 2008

While the breach of security that led to the theft of the VCs from the Waiouru Army museum will be causing many red faces in Defence and Army HQs, we understand that there may be worse to come from the quarter. Minister Phil Goff is apparently bracing himself for more controversy. This might explain why Goff was left with this portfolio in the recent re-shuffle. What better way to manage your greatest threat than to have him holding a hot potato? Watch this space.

Dec 2, 2007

China FTA - Are Negotiations About To Conclude?

There is much speculation around town that the negotiations on the China-New Zealand FTA that are due to begin tomorrow will be the final round of substantive negotiations (the lawyers may still have their Christmas ruined). There has been some real rubbish printed and spoken about the likely outcome in recent weeks. We are expecting to see comprehensive coverage of all goods, with all products moving to tariff free treatment. There may, however, be some long phase outs - dairy, for example. We also expect to see some good advances on services. The Government can't risk leaving services out of this negotiation following the drubbing it took for the substandard agreement with Thailand. The poor quality of the agreement with Thailand saw New Zealand subject to criticism in some foreign capitals also. The US Government was one that wasn't happy. Achieving an outcome this week will only bolster Chief Negotiator David Walker's chances of getting the Deputy Secretary slot that Derek Leask is about to vacate.

The Real Impact of Climate Change

Very good article on the impact of the proposed emissions trading regime on Government coffers in the Sunday Star Times - $5.6 billion in impact.

Dec 1, 2007

WTO: What The Hell Is Going On?

It wasn't that long ago that we were being told that the long running WTO Doha Round had to be finished this year to avoid being caught up in the chaos of a US Presidential race (Bush no longer has his negotiating authority - "fast track" as it is known). Yet apparently WTO Ambassadors agreed on Friday Geneva time to role the negotiations over into 2008. What is going on? And why don't we here anything about this in the New Zealand media?

The Hive understands that NZ's WTO Ambassador is going to be back home in a couple of weeks to speak at a seminar being organised by the new Centre for International Economic Law at VUW's Law School. We will try and find out more then. [Update 6/12/07 - the organisers have advised that Crawford Falconer is now not going to be able to attend the seminar but will send a video of his speech and will phone in for the Q&A session. This may still allow room for a direct read out on negotiations.]

Trade Minister (and Labour Party Leader in waiting) Phil Goff is also due to brief his so called "Advisory Group" this week. The Hive is in regular contact with Phil O'Rielly and other participants so will try and find out more. [Update 5/12/07 - Goff was apparently far from convincing in his optimism, but continued to see a prospect for an outcome in 2008. Non Agriculture Market access was seen as the big problem at present.]

As far as we can tell we have pretty minimal outcomes on the table for agriculture and manufactured goods. Nothing on services, and a big fight brewing on the rules that apply to dumped and subsidised goods. Sorry, but this doesn't sound good. We are not WTO experts here at The Hive, but we do know about US politics. There is no way that the US will give one inch on anti-dumping, or much on anything else in election year.

Lloyd Morrison, Sam Knowles, or John Palmer for PM?

Fran O'Sullivan is rather critical today of John Key's DVD and decision not to attend the Deloitte/ Management Magazine Top 200 awards on Thursday night. She also suggests that Key should learn from the likes of Lloyd Morrison, Sam Knowles, and John Palmer who she describes as "unabashed promoters of New Zealand success. They are not afraid of staking out positions and driving ambition forward". Fran suggests that Key should associate more with these gents to "reminded him how much he needs to lift his own game if his ambitions for New Zealand are to be realised".

Franks To Try A New Party

Wellington's worst kept secret has made into both the Weekend Herald and Dominion Post. Former ACT MP Stephen Franks, is going to have a go for National in Wellington Central. Queen Bee thinks that Franks is going to have a hard job beating Labour's rising star Grant Roberston.

Rumour has it that List MP Chris Finlayson will take on Transport and Justice Minister Annette King in Rongotai.

Winston To Have Another Go At Tauranga

Facing the prospect of political oblivion, and with no savings to speak of, NZ First Leader, Foreign Minister, and Government lapdog Winston Peters is reported to have decided to run again for his old seat of Tauranga. Winston lost this seat to National's Bob Clarkson at the last election. Things will be difficult this time around too Winston, particularly if Labour tries to make it easy for you by not standing, or by standing a plonker. This will make it clear to all that a vote for Winston or NZ First is in fact a vote for Labour. Moreover, with most of your original constituency pushing up daisies, or thoroughly pissed off that you misled them over the Super Gold Card, what are you going to run on?

New Zealand Economy Treading Water

More bad news for the Government. The Saturday Dominion Post has a large front page article saying that "New Zealand is stagnating while other countries surge ahead, and Australians are richer, healthier, better educated and living longer, a United Nations report shows.
The report, made public this week, shows that New Zealand has spent more than a decade in a rut placed 19th on the UN Development Programme's Human Development Index.
Australia is placed third, Spain has leapfrogged from 21st to 13th place, and Ireland - once on a par with New Zealand - is now fifth.
The index is based on a range of data including wage rates, life expectancy, adult literacy, government spending and gross domestic product.
It shows that since 1998 New Zealand has remained at either 19 or 20 on the scale and this year scored an index rating of 0.943. Australia is third with 0.962 - it was fourth in 1998."

The story goes on. Most interesting for Queen Bee is the comment from Finance Minister Michael Cullen than the report should be "taken with a pinch of salt". No wonder we have been treading water. Get real Michael. You have happily re-socialised the economy when you should have been putting money andd freedom back into the productive sector.

Who Is Going To Head The New New Zealand Transport Authority?

Possibly the most important job in the country, overseeing the funding and construction of the billions of dollars in transport infrastructure needed to help boost our dire productivity record, is being advertised by Bell McCaw. Will the Transit CEO or LTNZ CEO be chosen, or will the Government want someone capable of introducing a new culture?