Jul 9, 2008

Don't Expect A Sustainable Drop In Oil Prices Anytime Soon: Something For Winston To Talk To Condi About

With the Rice visit scheduled for the end of the month we have been spending some time catching up on the latest views from people we respect in Washington. Some observations:

  • we feel so sorry for these people. They are so depressed. The Bush Administration can't end soon enough;
  • they are, to a person deeply worried about Cheney and the continuing influence of the neo-cons;
  • they are most worried about Iran. They see Cheney as up to no good. It seems clear than most of the military hierarchy would resign should an order to attack be made, but the situation might be different should Israel start things off and need help tidying things up or extricating themselves from a mess. Cheney and friends are seen to be encouraging Israel - in direct contradiction to the position being advocated in public by the President (don't be taken in by the Trotskyite US domination and spread of democracy bullshit. Neo-conservatism is all about protecting Israel. The neo-cons turned against the Soviet Union for what reason in the late 50s and 60s? Because the Soviet Union started supporting Israel's opponents);
  • so long as an attack from Israel remains a real possibility expect high oil prices to continue;
  • a heavy travel schedule and growing concern about Iran/Israel might mean that Condi can't make it to NZ, though her current intention is to come.

So Poneke, don't expect those prices to fall sustainably anytime soon - indeed you might like to fill up at the current price.

And Winston, your task, which if you pull it off would make you deserve to get 5% of the votes in this year's election, is the persuade the Secretary of State to get the President to get heavy with Cheney. He has to stop causing this trouble around the place. He is a dangerous man who can't be trusted. He can't be fired but he can have his influence taken away - ask your Daddy about the influence he allowed Dan Quayle. And the President should make it clearer to Israel that the US will stop any attempt to attack Iran. We can't see how Israel could get to Iran without flying over either Iraq or the Gulf. The US is well placed in both instances to make sure nothing gets through. And if the US does what you say Winston, oil prices might have a chance to stabilise, and even drop.....

We will post more on the McCain campaign in due course. It is a bit depressing also (on the foreign policy front anyway).