Our initial view at The Hive (where we understand Republican politics better than the Democrats) is that the withdrawal would be an even thing - maybe working just a little in favour of Clinton, as Edwards' supporters were more like Clinton supporters.
Two assessments out today seem to confirm this:
Where will John Edwards' supporters go? Edwards has a strong preference for Obama; it's clear from listening to him speak at campaign events and debates that he respects Obama's co-embrace of the change message. But when I spoke to Edwards supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire, they didn't share their candidate's affinity for the Senator from Illinois. That makes sense: Edwards' base is working class whites, a group among which Clinton has done very well and Obama has done very poorly.
The door is open for Edwards to endorse down the road. (We'll have to wait to see if a deal has been made.) I suspect he will definitely not endorse Clinton, and may or may not endorse Obama. (If Obama fails to speak about poverty on the stump, however, all bets are off.) I think anything short of full-throated Obama endorsement will mean that his supporters split relatively evenly between the two remaining Democratic candidates in the race.
The above from Mother Jones and this from a Professor we have never heard of, but as he agrees with us he must be good:
"With Edwards and Giuliani dropping out, the race effectively becomes a two-person contest in both parties, effectively dashing hopes of brokered conventions on either side.
"The Edwards withdrawal is likely to be a wash in terms of favoring either Obama or Clinton, especially without an endorsement from the former North Carolina senator. Polls show Edwards supporters were split roughly evenly between Obama and Edwards.
"If anything, it is conceivable that more of Edwards's supporters may drift to Clinton instead of Obama. Edwards attracted considerable support from voters over 50 and the less educated, groups that Clinton has won handily in states like New Hampshire. Exit poll results in New Hampshire also suggest Edwards's supporters in the January 2008 primary also prefer Clinton over Obama with respect to honesty, trustworthiness and qualification to be commander-in-chief."
