Those who want to read it can click here. As with the Key speech, we will leave it to others to focus on the youth issues which are grabbing the headlines. We will focus on the economy.
Clark is clearly intending to run on her record and to sell an optimistic view of the future:
Without doubt our economy is now more resilient, and that’s critical when there’s global market volatility of the type experienced this year. This is not a time for gambling with our country’s future.
Growth will slow a little this year, but is still expected to stay above two per cent. That used to be as good as it got.
The economy is expected to return to its trend rate of three per cent growth next year.
At this time of international turbulence :
· employment remains very strong, with employers experiencing skills shortages,
· unemployment is forecast to stay low,
· business confidence remains reasonably positive on investment and staffing intentions,
· there is continuing strong growth in Asia which gives support to our commodity prices,
· in the global credit crunch, the structure of the New Zealand banking system has meant New Zealand has not been as exposed as some countries. Banks in New Zealand and Australia are judged to have been more conservative in their approach, although a number of non bank deposit takers have been affected, with adverse effects for people’s savings.
· the government is in a sound fiscal position which gives us room for manoeuvre if required.
Overall, while there is clearly global uncertainty, there is no sensible prediction of the “R” scenario here – that is no more than the silent prayer of the Opposition !
While at the same time suggesting that National wasn't up to it last time in office:
The truth is that New Zealand is still paying the price of past years of economic failure and harsh social policy.
Broken families and shattered lives were the product of long term, intergenerational high unemployment and deprivation. We see the results in family, youth, and other violence in the community. While crime rates overall go down, violent offending goes up. Today’s young violent criminals are the children of the “Mother of All Budgets” in 1991.
And
That was the politics of deception of the 1980s and ‘90s – the politics New Zealand banished eight years ago.
Unfortunately there is not much sense of new direction - instead we are supposed to believe that existing policy directions, supplemented by the soon to be announced BY THE PM (not you Mr Goff "I hope soon to be able to report progress with China – the most ambitious negotiation we’ve been engaged in to date.") China and GCC FTA outcomes, plus further infrastructure investment, will be enough for us to continue growing in a sustainable way.
So our assessment:
High marks on infrastructure and trade policy - even higher if you can start a negotiation with the US.
Negatives are the excessive optimism about our short term prospects (has the PM read Bollard's speech?); failure to address tax; failure to focus on productivity growth; failure to commit to a bold vision such as taking us back to the top half of the OECD in per capita GDP; failure to accept or even acknowledge the economic costs of proposed environmental policy. And we are very angry about the characterisation of the very reforms that have allowed New Zealand to enjoy such a long period of economic growth. This is plain dishonest.
We wanted to see more about new direction. If you are to win in 2008 Helen, you are going to need to provide this.
