Blumenthal and Schriver have written A Twenty-First-Century Agenda for the U.S.-Taiwan Partnership . In this report the authors go back to basics and, putting the cross-strait dynamic to one side, look at Taiwan's importance to the US and the the world. The trouble, say the authors, is that Taiwan has for too long been seen through the prism of a wider China policy and in zero sum terms. One could say the same about New Zealand. While recognising Taiwan's economic importance, most policy makers here would be happiest if somehow an accommodation could be found that would see Taiwan remain an important market, but which would see Taiwan somehow re-integrate politically with China.
There are some in the US who would see eye to eye with New Zealand foreign policy formulators. They will therefore not like this comment from the authors
As this dynamic has unfolded, relations between
Washington and Taipei have soured. Washington has
not found the proper balance among trying to pursue
common interests with Beijing, secure Taiwan’s freedom
and international profile, and pursue bilateral
interests with Taiwan. Beijing has successfully pressured
Washington to further its agenda of squeezing
the island. Taipei has responded by increasing its
emphasis on its sovereignty.
Allowing this dynamic to continue is inimical to
U.S. interests. A broken dialogue increases the likelihood
that what is now a dangerous situation will
develop into an even more dangerous crisis.
How is this inimical to US interests?
If Taiwan is successfully coerced by the PRC into
a settlement, against the wishes of Taiwan’s 23 million
people, Washington would not only lose a valuable
international partner, but its interests and
regional position would also suffer a severe blow.
Regional allies would question the credibility of
America’s political commitments, as would other
young democracies around the world. America’s
favorable position in Asia is sustained by its alliances
and partnerships, and it needs their assistance to
keep the region peaceful, prosperous, and free.
A coerced settlement against the wishes of the Taiwanese
may carry even greater strategic significance
over the long term. Chinese control of Taiwan (and,
presumably, the Taiwan Strait) could effectively deny
the United States and its allies access to critical sea
lanes during conflict. Mainland control of Taiwan
would also significantly extend the reach of the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA) in the Asia-Pacific region.
Why is Taiwan important in its own right?
Taiwan’s valuable role in the international community
remains hidden to most casual observers.
Many think of Taiwan as a small place with a limited
impact on our interests. But with a population of
23 million (larger than treaty ally Australia), a GDP
ranking twenty-first in the world (well ahead of
Asian economic powerhouses such as Hong Kong
and Singapore), and geography that positions it
along major commercial routes (the Port of Kaohsiung
handles more containers per year than any single
port in Japan or South Korea), Taiwan is, by most
objective standards, a major player.
So what is the way forward?
America should reinvigorate a
positive bilateral agenda with Taiwan, capitalizing
on Taiwan’s many strengths to expand its participation
in the regional and international arenas. The
United States can help Taiwan reorient its foreign
policy to accentuate its role as a peaceful, vibrant
member of the international community. This
approach would stabilize the Taiwan Strait and help
secure American interests in a prosperous, stable,
and free Asia—all within the existing U.S. cross-
Strait policy framework.
An ROC with a larger international role contributing
to global economic prosperity, political freedom,
a clean environment, international security, and
public health will advance the interests of Taiwan,
the United States, and the international community.
At the same time, actively working to increase Taiwan’s
international presence may help address the
substantive concerns shared by many in Taiwan who
feel that formal de jure independence is the only path
to entry into international forums. While Taiwan’s
future political status is the purview of the citizens of
Taiwan, Washington has an interest in seeing that the
manner in which those questions are addressed is
peaceful, eliciting an interest in Beijing in becoming
more creative and flexible.
What exactly will this mean? The authors set out a policy agenda for both Taiwan and the US sides to follow. We steal this summary from the Taipei Times:
The authors call on the US to relax the restrictions on high-level bilateral visits and communications in the political and military spheres and allow both countries' presidents to speak directly to each other.
Other recommendations include a free trade agreement between the two, more US arms sales to Taiwan focusing on better homeland defense cooperation, anti-submarine warfare, air and missile defense and disaster and humanitarian aid coordination.
The report urges Taiwan to boost defense spending, implement economic reforms including the opening of investment opportunities for Chinese and other foreign firms, promote Taiwanese industries' technological and market advances in international economic relationships, export its democratic model to the rest of the world and use its public health expertise more effectively on the global scene.
They also call for more US arms sales to Taiwan and greater interoperability between the US and Taiwanese militaries to help combat a Chinese military action against Taiwan.
Citing the US refusal to sell advanced F-16 fighters to Taiwan, the report says: "Washington has thus become culpable in an eroding military balance across the Strait, sacrificing long-term interests to short-term emotion."
The areas of this report that will probably be most relevant to New Zealand are the comments on APEC, on China's attempts to exclude Taiwan from FTA activity in the region
Most importantly, the host of proposed regional
economic agreements that has emerged in recent
years threatens Taiwan’s continued economic health.
China’s activism in working to establish free trade
agreements (FTAs) with a number of members of the
Association of South East Asian Nations deliberately
excludes Taiwan from a potential new regional supply
chain. The PRC is also attempting to downgrade
the importance of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC), the one Asia-Pacific institution of which
Taiwan is a part (and another potentially useful platform
for a regional FTA).
And the focus on a larger role for Taiwan's soft diplomacy - including development assistance.
Maybe Peter Dunne could start pressuring for some new thinking on Taiwan here (once the China FTA is signed).
