As we predicted, the Chinese Nationalist Party, the KMT, has swept home in the Taiwanese Presidential election 59% to 41%. That seems a pretty strong mandate, and shows how badly Chen Shui-bian and friends screwed things up.
The media will be suggesting tomorrow that this heralds major change in China-Taiwan relations. Don't bank on this.
Ma Ying-jeou will certainly not be pushing for a formal independence from China (being content with the current de facto independence). This might help speed up improved commercial links with the mainland, particularly air and sea links. But China will not be satisfied until Taiwan has returned to the bosom, and Ma can't deliver this. Taiwan will still be seeking its own international identity, will still play games in the Pacific etc. and will still be wanting to buy bigger and better arms systems from the US. And because Ma is likely to be better behaved in US eyes, these sales are more likely to go through. Perversely this might make tensions worse with China at a political level (while making armed confrontation less likely).
Will New Zealand have the courage to issue a statement of welcome to Taiwan's new leader and commendation to Taiwan for holding yet another successful democratic election??
