Fran O'Sullivan quoted Rodney Hide as saying the following in her column this morning in the NZ Herald
On Thursday Hide revealed that Treasury estimates showed the impact of the emissions trading scheme on the economy would be major. For New Zealand to hold to its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels may be beyond the scope of the proposed trading regime. Taking the 2013-2050 period, there would be a cumulative cost of some $30 billion if a carbon price of $21.50 per tonne was applied, and, $72.4 billion if a $50 price was used. This must be offset.
There is talk around Wellington of another study commissioned by Treasury (Infometrics might have done this) which has a conservative estimate of 53,000 jobs being displaced by the policy. The estimate is deemed to be conservative as it assumes the exchange rate will adjust automatically every time a major plant closes, or industry goes under. In the real world the exchange rate doesn't necessarily move this way.
There is also talk of a study showing that the current scheme will render meat and wool production completely non-viable post around 2025 and suggests an actual date for the closure of the last sheep and beef farm in New Zealand.
There is also a rumour that a major study by NZIER is due out next week. And that the news will not be good for advocates of the Government's policy.
Watch this space.
