We today start a series on the man who will be PM in around a month if his actions this week have seen Labour support rebound, Dr Michael Cullen.
We will start with the Auckland Airport sale.
Was Cullen trying to discourage investors from accepting the Canadian pension plan offer, or was he trying to sucker investors into accepting, thus allowing the rejection of the investment, and an attempt to trap the inexperienced John Key into the privatisation minefield?
If he was trying to discourage take up of the Canadian offer Cullen is clearly a fool. In recent months he announced policy in three areas which some have interpreted as attempts to reduce the attractiveness of the Canadian offer - he announced increased regulation of the NZ airports (share price drops), he announced an end to stapled securities (share price drops), and most recently he announces a change to the OIC regulation (share price drops). If Cullen was attempting to discourage he was clearly a complete idiot. In each instance, the Government policy change made the Canadian pension plan offer more attractive.
Is Cullen a complete idiot? Maybe. But he might also be super cunning. He could have been setting a trap, which Mr Key allowed himself to fall into. Auckland Airport's sale has zero to do with privatisation of assets. It was already privatised, as Fran O'Sullivan usefully reminds us by former Treasurer Winston Peters. This is about the overseas investment regime. National hasn't had problems in this space before, it has not really been an area of great difference between Labour and National in this area. How could Cullen have predicted that Key would somehow get so off message and off issue?
We conclude that he could not have so predicted. He is an idiot, but a very lucky idiot indeed.
