Jan 4, 2008

What The Iowa Result Means

Ok, the results are still coming in, but we don't see too much chance of too radical a change. Clinton may just edge out Edwards and McCain might still beat Thompson.

One should not draw too many conclusions from the Iowa caucuses. They are not a reliable predictor of the final choices for either party. That said, there has been more scrutiny of the Iowa vote than ever before, and the results could have real influence over the momentum of various campaigns for forthcoming primaries - particularly New Hampshire.

Our first clear conclusion at The Hive is that the Reuters/C-Span/Zogby running poll is a very accurate indicator of the final result. We will keep using it as our preferred indicator.

Second, we conclude that Senator Clinton is in trouble. The pressure on her in New Hampshire is now immense.

Third, both Obama and Edwards will be delighted. This result will add real impetus to both campaigns.

Fourth, given the closeness of the race, Richardson will have to re-think tactics. His chances of getting the Vice President's slot might be better if he throws his towel in now and endorses someone. The question is who? Clinton might now be too risky a bet.

For McCain, it pretty much hangs on New Hampshire. He needs to do well there. If it isn't first place he needs a close second. Giuliani might like reflect on his future. He is taking some of McCain's vote. For him, Florida is key. For him, a failure to win Florida - where he has been spending all hiss time and money - will be the like the humiliation being felt by Romney.

The religious right will be thanking the lord for delivering on their prayers. Huckabee is their man.

Our final conclusion is that the troubles in Pakistan had but a 48 hour impact on voter consciousness in Iowa. If it had been higher in the mind, both Clinton and McCain would have done better.

Now an Internet based news site called The Hive might be forgiven for liking a candidate called Huckabee. However we feel some discomfort about his electability at the end of the day. For the moment our money remains on McCain, who we think would be a much better President. We also think that he could beat any of the three Democrat front runners.