Feb 9, 2008

Zogby On California

Regular visitors have been reading about Zogby's failure to predict either of the Super Tuesday races in California correctly on Kiwiblog and The Hive. There is much comment on this in the US media also. This from the Los Angeles Times.

Some quotes:

Super Tuesday may have lacked a runaway winner in either party, but when it came to anticipating the outcome of both primaries in California, there was one clear loser -- the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll."We blew it," pollster John Zogby said.

In a news release, Zogby International explained: "It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters" (i.e. far more Latinos, especially older ones, cast ballots than anticipated, and those voters went heavily for Clinton). Also, African American turnout was "overestimated."

What about the GOP race?The findings in the final Zogby poll: Mitt Romney 40%, John McCain 33%.The almost-complete actual results: McCain 42%, Romney 34%. Zogby told us that his staff still is vetting the GOP goof.

"This is not one of our happier moments," Zogby said.

We admire Zogby's honesty.