We have been known to criticise journalists in New Zealand from time to time but we are today complementing James Weir for the piece he has written for the Dominion Post. Weir interview Roy Hemmingway, the former Electricity Commissioner. It is political and economic dynamite. The Hive has been saying for some time that the 90% renewables target is nuts (impossible to deliver on without reducing growth in the economy) and that the 10 year moratorium on new thermal generation risks power shortages in Auckland within the next few years. We quote from the article:
"Now living in the United States again, Hemmingway told BusinessDay the original Energy Strategy drafted by government officials was "fairly well balanced". But Hemmingway said he understood that the more "extreme reliance" on renewable energy was substituted by Parker himself.
"More renewables are necessary if New Zealand is to meet climate change targets. However, in my opinion, the government's policy puts so much emphasis on renewables to the exclusion of other generation sources that the power supply is at risk," Hemmingway said.
He warned against an over-reliance on wind power.
"The most likely and abundant source of renewable electricity is wind, and wind is unpredictable," Hemmingway said.
It was possible to predict the amount of wind energy available over the course of a whole year, but it was "very difficult" to predict how much wind power might be possible at the exact time it was needed to meet demand, he said.
"Given that New Zealand has begun to experience issues around meeting peak demand, there is a very serious problem with relying on wind," he said.
There were not enough other forms of renewable power such as hydro and geothermal stations that would provide a more reliable power supply.
"Power prices will rise, simply because new sources of supply, of all kinds, are more expensive than the old sources," Hemmingway said.
Banning non-renewable power from coal or gas fired stations potentially meant generators would have to turn to more expensive sources driving up prices."
The article also reminds us about the risks associated with hydro and about the reduced capacity on the Cook Strait cable.
Hemmingway also says : "security of supply was always an issue for New Zealand's power system because of the unpredictable nature of water running into hydro lakes. That would be made worse by an even greater reliance on hydro and wind, as against the more predictable power from gas or coal."
Why has it taken a former Electricity Commission Chairman to make these comments as opposed to the current Commission members? Is this not the role for the Commission? Is this silence something to do with links to the Labour Party of key Commission members?
Hemmingway's comments about Parker's interventions will not go down well in the Beehive, particularly the 9th Floor, where questions are being asked about whether he is an asset or risk? But this is not just Parker's problem. We have serious Government policy being announced without any cost benefit calculations being made, and with the policy being driven by partisan politics as opposed to national benefit considerations. This should not be possible under the Westminster system. But this has been corrupted in New Zealand in recent years. We now have a public service that is happy to be associated with policy that can't be delivered on, or which can have effects that are not fully understood. We have a public service run by chiefs who are prepared to look the other way, rather than fight hard for good policy. We have a politicised public service.
