May 18, 2008

October 18?

October has been a month of change and revolution. First the Republic (10/10) then the People's Republic (1/10) of China were established. Is 18 October going to be remembered as the day of the 2008 landslide? That is what Bill Ralston and Anna Rushworth are reporting (not the landslide bit) in today's Herald on Sunday.

We still don't discount 15 November (when you are facing oblivion and in many cases unemployment) why not hold onto the big salaries for another month if you can?

We don't think any decision has been taken. The 29% poll result makes a really early election most unlikely now.

As a rule of thumb you don't hold an election on the same day as an All Black test match, or within a couple of weeks of a match that the All Blacks might lose. Unhelpfully for the Government the All Blacks play pretty much every Saturday (or Sunday am) from 1 November until 29 November. And to make matters worse 1 November is the game that the All Blacks could lose - against Australia in Hong Kong. Now if you are going to face humiliation at the polls having all of New Zealand watching the All Blacks play a game against Australia would be far better than having everyone watch John Key's moment of glory and your concession speech wouldn't it?

Because there is a chance of an All Black loss to Australia 8 November is out. 8 November the All Blacks will beat Scotland. So people will feel a bit better. 15 November (16 November NZ time the All Blacks play Ireland so this is not really a factor). 15 November may still be possible.

18 October isn't bad, 1 November if the polls remain bad, and 15 November still possible.