Feb 9, 2008

Weekend Primaries

5 States and 3 US territories hold primaries this weekend. Here is a summary of what is at stake:
February 9

Guam Republican caucuses

Delegates: 6 unpledged delegates at stake

Kansas Republican caucuses

Participation: Closed (registered Republicans only)

Delegates: 36 pledged delegates at stake

Louisiana Republican and Democratic primaries

Republican participation: Closed primary

Delegates: 20 pledged delegates possibly at stake

Democratic participation: Closed primary

Delegates: 56 pledged delegates at stake

Nebraska Democratic caucuses

Participation: Closed. Any voter can, however, register as a Democrat at the caucus.

Delegates: 24 pledged delegates at stake

Virgin Islands Republican caucuses

Delegates: 6 unpledged delegates at stake

Washington State Democratic, Republican caucuses

Democratic participation: Open caucuses, in which any voter can participate, but must declare that he or she is a Democrat.

Delegates: 78 pledged delegates at stake.

Republican participation: Open, so any voter can participate, but must sign a declaration indicating that he or she is a member of the Republican Party and has or will not participate in the 2008 precinct caucus or convention system of any other party.

Delegates: 18 pledged delegates at stake.

Northern Mariana Islands Republican caucuses

Delegates: 6 unpledged delegates at stake.

February 10

Maine Democratic caucuses

Participation: Democrats hold closed primaries. New voters, as well as voters not registered in a political party, may register as Democrats at the caucus.

Republicans and Green Party members must become registered Democrats by January 26 in order to participate in the Democratic caucus.

Delegates: 24 pledged delegates at stake.

As is clear from the above, the most important prize is Washington State, but it also seems to be the most confusing.

We draw reader attention to this snapshot of the races on the Democratic side, that has just been posted on the New York Times site.

Now that we have dumped Zogby as our pollster we are searching around for good polls on what is likely to happen tomorrow. We hope to post the results of this search later on this evening. [Update - state by state polls very hard to find, and we are not the only ones complaining.
There is a poll out for Wisconsin but they don't vote there until 19 February. This from the BBC:

Little polling has been done in the post-Super Tuesday primary states, so the arrival of two surveys of Wisconsin voters was extremely welcome today.

The polls - from ARG - suggest that Barack Obama is trailing on 41%, nine points behind Hillary Clinton on 50%, with 8% undecided.

Some observers had been of the opinion that the state would be fertile territory for Mr Obama, whose home-state of Illinois adjoins Wisconsin, but this poll indicates that he has a lot of ground to make up.

The ARG Republican poll - conducted before the suspension of Mitt Romney's campaign - has John McCain on 51%, comfortably ahead of Mr Romney on 29%, with Ron Paul third on 7% and Mike Huckabee way behind on 4%.