Smaller parties biggest losers
The minor parties are facing a devastating election, with only the Maori Party set to survive in significant numbers on the results of the latest Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll.
The Greens are widely expected to reach the 5 per cent threshold needed under MMP to stay on Parliament, but have dipped under that in the latest poll.
At the moment the small parties have 23 seats out of 121 - 24 if you include political refugee Taito Phillip Field.
On these numbers, no more than eight or nine seats - four or five for the Maori Party, Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne and probably Rodney Hide - would go to parties outside Labour and National in a 123-seat House.
The One News poll last night gives further support to this analysis.
