Vernon Small wrote an interesting analysis in yesterday's Independent Financial Review of the dilemmas facing all the small parties. The most interesting - given the ETS issue is his analysis of the Green Party. We doubt Vernon would be having quite as jovial a discussion with the PM's chief press secretary Kathryn Street yesterday as they were having on Lambton Quay the day before, if Kathryn had read this
Most problematic is a strategy for the Greens.
They may be convinced the dips under 5% are aberrations but the worry-lines must be increasing.
Embittered by being repeatedly left out of Labour’s nine years in government, the party has already taken the strategic decision to distance itself from the perception it’s a Labour footstool; though the relative policy matches with Labour and National meant that an indifferent stance could never be too convincing to voters.
Green voters are clearly more Labour-leaning, and would ditch the party if there was a serious move to prefer a National government over a viable Labour one.
But if the present poll trend continues a “more in sorrow than in anger” scenario might evolve.
Would the Greens be tempted to say to (Labour?) voters, even in coded form, that a Labour defeat is inevitable and the lesser of two evils might be a Green-influenced National administration rather than one in thrall to Act or UnitedFuture? To offer themselves as a wild card in the post-election dealing?
