The latest Roy Morgan Poll is showing a different trend to the Fairfax poll. National gaining support, while Labour is dropping.
In mid June 2008, the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows that overall National Party support was 52.5% (up 2%), Labour Party 31.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 7% (steady), NZ First 4% (unchanged), Maori Party 2% (down 1%), ACT NZ 2% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 102 (up 8.5) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is 87.5 (up 2.1 points) after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand confirmed (June 5, 2008) that the cash rate of 8.25% will be maintained and an “easing bias” to lower rates later in 2008 is on the agenda.
Regional Analysis
Special analysis by Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and other areas of New Zealand shows the National Party ahead of the Labour Party in all areas.
Even in Wellington, where Labour has been strong, the National Party with 44.5% of the vote is now ahead of Labour at 38% in May-June 2008.
Gary Morgan says:
“The increasing National Party support, now at 52.5% - the highest National Party support since the last election shows New Zealand electors a looking for a change.
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (87.5) is close to its record low and shows that New Zealanders are worried about the economy and their financial situation over the next 12 months.
“Despite an increase, confidence in Helen Clark’s Government (102) remains low. Convincing New Zealanders that her Government deserves another term in office at the election in a few months remains a tall order for Helen Clark as long as confidence in New Zealand remains fragile.”
