Nov 20, 2008
Dec 18, 2007
Has The Next Government Already Been Formed?
Who is opposing the Electoral Finance Bill? - National, Maori, Act.
Who is raising serious questions about the emissions trading law? - National, Maori, Act.
Have Labour's tacticians maybe blundered and forged what had previously been thought to be an unlikely alliance? - Maybe.
Might Peter Dunne be risking three years completely out in the cold if he goes ahead and supports the Electoral Finance Bill today? - Yes.
Posted by Queen Bee at 8:18 AM
Labels: National Politics
Nov 15, 2008
To experiment with the power of this new media tool – a blog;
To raise the standard of political debate – particularly around trade and economic policy and about the policy response to climate change;
To expose the truth about Winston Peters’ performance as Foreign Minister and the funding of the NZ First Party;
To assist the wider news media to understand the importance of some issues that had previously been misunderstood, misreported or not reported.
During 2008 we became increasingly frustrated at the way New Zealand was being run, particularly over the process around the proposed emissions trading scheme, foreign investment (eg Auckland Airport), and the squandering of billions on a poor investment (Kiwirail).
We also became concerned about the politicisation of the public service and the fear from some in the public service about providing free and frank advice to Ministers. Ministers were in some cases being told what they wanted to hear as opposed to the truth. And the public were not being told the truth because Ministers would not let officials tell the truth. The likely cost of carbon credits is a classic example.
A year after its establishment the collaborators are pleased that pretty much all goals have been achieved. They are not displeased with some recent developments also:
The decisive result at the election;
The removal of NZ First from Parliament;
The participation of the Maori Party in Government;
The election of Phil Goff and Annette King as leader and deputy leader of Labour.
The probability that Mike Williams will stand down from the Labour Party Presidency and be replaced with Andrew Little.
In sum there has, we believe, been a fundamental shift in New Zealand politics. The Hive, we believe, played a roll in achieving this shift. In the last month it moved to #4 in the ranking of NZ political blogs and was achieving an impressive daily readership of close to 3,000 opinion formers every day Monday to Friday with a daily readership at weekends closer to 1,200.
So we have decided to call it quits on The Hive. We will leave it up as it is an interesting resource for those studying New Zealand politics and history. Those studying the impact of blogs on New Zealand politics will also find this a useful resource.
The Hive has been a collaboration involving around a dozen people. Backgrounds include politicians, lobbyists, journalists and business people. Two of us are discussing a fully commercial venture (once the EFA is abolished) which will seek to continue the improvement of debate and analysis of key issues confronting New Zealand. Watch this space in the New Year.
We thank the collaborators for the hours they donated to this effort. Everything has been done on a voluntary basis, usually late at night or early in the morning.
And thanks again to our readers. Many of you contributed comments. All comments were read and had some form of impact. Thank you for being part of The Hive.
Nov 13, 2008
This is the start of today's Editorial in the Dom Post -
National's leadership has clearly had another about-face experience. In 2005, then deputy leader Gerry Brownlee strongly criticised Prime Minister Helen Clark for allowing the leaders of two support parties, NZ First and UnitedFuture, to be ministers outside Cabinet, The Dominion Post writes.
Wall Street markets dipped sharply Wednesday weighed down by losses in Europe and Asia and recession fears.
The benchmark Dow Jones shed more than 3 percent in early trading before rallying a little, down 231 points at 8,463. The Nasdaq was also down almost 3 percent, more than 40 points, at 1,539.
In an effort to bolster economic confidence U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday he had seen signs of improvement in the economic situation.
"Both at home and around the world we have already seen signs of improvement. Our system is stronger and more stable than just a few weeks ago," Paulson said as he updated reporters on the progress of the U.S. government's financial rescue package.
But Paulson warned that the economy remained "fragile" and said further market turmoil could be expected as a consequence of the collapse of the U.S. housing market.
Broadening the reach of the Treasury's $700 billion bailout plan, Paulson said non-bank financial institutions that provide consumer credit, such as credit cards and auto loans, would also be eligible for government financing and warned that banks and non-banks could require further capital.
"Although the financial system has stabilized, both banks and non-banks may well need more capital given their troubled asset holdings, projections for continued high rates of foreclosures and stagnant U.S. and world economic conditions," Paulson said.
Nov 12, 2008
What we know is that there is a virtual circle between higher participation in exporting and higher productivity. It is no coincidence that the first comprehensive study of total factor productivity that I became aware of ten years ago – the Diewart and Laurence study completed for the NZ Treasury – showed that in a 20 year period from 1978 to 1998 total factor productivity of NZ agriculture was almost three times higher than total factor productivity for the economy as a whole – and that included the contribution of NZ agriculture.
Why? Because NZ agriculture generally regards the NZ domestic market as an abstraction. 90 per cent plus of what NZ agriculture produces is for the world market, not NZ. NZ agriculture – and that is far broader than just our farmers since it includes our marketers, our scientists and our trade negotiators are involved in a virtual circle of innovation, product excellence and expanding market opportunities, or they fall away. Our objective is to move an additional 10% of GDP into that space. Or, technically expressed in terms of the National Party External Strategies Paper, our Government will aim to increase the ratio of exports to GDP by 10 percentage points by 2020. It is achievable.
I said earlier that the Labour Government lost office because it lost touch with New Zealanders about the issues that mattered to them in their daily lives – safer streets, stronger economy, better schools, putting the word ‘winning’ back into the NZ vocabulary. I do not expect that our people will use the language I am using here. There is unlikely to be a new NGO called ‘friends of total factor productivity’.
But what is at the end of the total factor productivity sausage machine is higher real wages. That is something every New Zealander can relate to. Every New Zealander knows we have a problem here: our real wages are too low. That is a principal reason why we are bleeding people. And not just bleeding over 80,000 New Zealanders a year – but bleeding young people. 80% of the people who left NZ last year were under the age of 40. Some 30% of our tertiary educated people do not live in their own country – an unprecedented proportion. We need to get NZ back, over the next decade or two, into the top half of the OECD where we were when I grew up. Frankly, it is where we belong. Raising productivity growth is central to that. Raising our exporting performance is an absolute key. And the Chinese market is a large part of that story.
We agree with all this but note that growing our exports as a proportion of GDP by 10 percentage points by 2020 will take a major change in performance and strategy. Instead of crowing about winning an award as the best Trade Promotion Agency in the World, NZTE should be explaining why our exports as a proportion of GDP have in fact been declining steadily since NZTE was established.
Having peaked at 37% in 2001 New Zealand exports as a percentage of GDP have fallen to 29%.
The reason we guess Groser is confident about achieving this goal is that we have dropped 8 percentage points in six years, so growing 10 over 12 should be achievable. We agree the logic but stress the need for major change if we are going to achieve this worthy goal.
Le dernier d'entre eux, Lazare Ponticelli, s'est éteint le 12 mars dernier, à l'âge de 110 ans. Parce qu'il pensait que cela serait «un affront à ceux qui sont morts» avant lui, il avait longtemps refusé des funérailles nationales avant de revenir sur sa décision peu avant sa mort. Un hommage solennel lui avait été rendu aux Invalides en présence du président Sarkozy. Quatre combattants de la grande guerre sont encore en vie à ce jour, trois Britanniques et un Américain.
Sous un ciel gris et venteux, le président français est arrivé devant l'ossuaire de Douaumont , construit dans les années 20 pour accueillir les restes des 300.000 victimes de Verdun, en compagnie de son épouse, Carla, qui arborait sur sa redingote grise le «bleuet de France», insigne de collectes en faveur des anciens combattants démunis. Etaient présents à leurs côtés le prince Charles, héritier de la couronne d'Angleterre et son épouse Camilla.
Ont également été conviés le grand-duc et la grande-duchesse de Luxembourg, le président du Bundesrat (sénat) allemand Peter Müller, le président de la Commission européenne José Manuel Barroso et le président du Parlement européen l'Allemand Hans-Gert Pöttering.
Les fusillés de 1917 «ne s'étaient pas déshonorés»
Nicolas Sarkozy a rendu hommage à tous les combattants du conflit, et fait un pas vers la réhabilitation des mutins de 1917, ces soldats fusillés car ils refusaient d'aller au front.
«Je penserai à ces hommes dont on avait trop exigé, qu'on avait trop exposés, que parfois des fautes de commandement avaient envoyés au massacre, à ces hommes qui n'ont plus eu la force de se battre», a lancé le chef de l'Etat. Avant de poursuivre en dénonçant «cette guerre totale» qui «excluait toute indulgence, toute faiblesse».
«Mais 90 ans après la fin de la guerre, je veux dire au nom de notre Nation que beaucoup de ceux qui furent exécutés alors ne s'étaient pas déshonorés, n'avaient pas été des lâches mais que simplement ils étaient allés jusqu'à l'extrême limite de leurs forces. Souvenons-nous qu'ils étaient des hommes comme nous, avec leurs forces et leurs faiblesses», a poursuivi Nicolas Sarkozy .
Avant de conclure : «souvenons-nous qu'ils auraient pu être nos enfants. Souvenons-nous qu'ils furent aussi les victimes d'une fatalité qui dévora tant d'hommes qui n'étaient pas préparés à une telle épreuve».
Un peu plus tôt, à Paris, Nicolas Sarkozy avait rompu avec une autre coutume, celle de raviver chaque année la flamme du soldat inconnu située sous l'Arc de Triomphe. A la place, le chef de l'Etat a déposé une gerbe au pied de la statue de Georges Clemenceau, aux Champs Elysées.
François Fillon doit quant à lui se rendre à Rethondes, au Nord de Paris, où fut signé l'armistice mettant fin à la «der des der», alors qu'un rapport proposant de limiter le nombre de journées dédiées à la mémoire crée la polémique. Le secrétaire d'Etat aux anciens combattants Jean-Marie Bockel a estimé mardi matin sur RTL qu'il valait «mieux garder les commémorations telles qu'elles sont, qu'elles soient nationales ou pas». «Tant qu'il y aura des gens pour les faire vivre, des médias pour relayer ce qu'elles racontent comme tragédies, comme combats, nous les ferons vivre», estime-t-il.
La guerre de 1914-1918 mobilisa 8,5 millions de soldats en France. 1,4 million, dont de nombreux tirailleurs des colonies françaises d'Afrique, n'en revinrent pas. La plupart avaient entre 18 et 25 ans. En France et en Allemagne, un soldat engagé sur six a été tué. L'Allemagne a perdu 1,9 millions d'hommes, la Russie 1,7 millions, la Grande-Bretagne 760.000.
New Zealand's financial and payments systems have held up well in the face of extreme disorder within the international financial markets, Governor Alan Bollard said today, when releasing the Bank's November
2008 Financial Stability Report.
"While we are far from seeing the final impact of the financial and economic disruption, New Zealand's banks, and the Australian parents of the majors, are well-positioned to withstand the economic downturn," Dr Bollard said.
Dr Bollard said that New Zealand's banks have not experienced the significant financial losses affecting financial institutions in the United States and Europe.
"Also, they have sufficient capital buffers to withstand the higher loan losses that will inevitably result from the economic downturn.
"However, recent global market conditions have affected the cost and accessibility of offshore funding that our banks - and the country - rely on heavily."
Measures undertaken by central banks and governments around the world have contributed to some improvement in market conditions over recent weeks. New Zealand has also adopted a range of policy measures to help reduce financial and economic risks.
Deputy Governor Grant Spencer said the retail deposit guarantee scheme that the Government announced in October assures New Zealanders that
their deposits are safe. The wholesale guarantee scheme announced in
early November is aimed at facilitating the re-entry of financial institutions to offshore wholesale debt markets.
"These schemes are a temporary response to exceptional circumstances.
While some distortions are inevitable, the Government has tried to reduce these distortions through the use of risk-based pricing and other features. The Bank will also monitor and supervise the guaranteed institutions more intensively, and will accelerate implementation of the new non-bank prudential regime.
"Recently we issued a consultation document on proposed new standards for the banks' management of their funding and liquidity. When finalised, this policy will reinforce incentives on banks to diversify away from short-term wholesale funding and reduce their vulnerability to credit market disruptions."
Mr Spencer said banks have been constructing Residential Mortgage Backed Securities following the Reserve Bank's announcement in May that it will accept these securities in its domestic market operations. "A number of banks now have these securities in place. This will enable us to maintain liquidity in the banking system if the offshore funding channels continue to be disrupted."
Dr Bollard noted that a slowing in the economy had been reflected in an easing in credit growth, and savings appeared to be improving, particularly in the household sector. Together with the decline in the exchange rate, this is expected to improve New Zealand's external balance and reduce the need for foreign borrowing over time.
"However, global developments have proven extremely disruptive and it will likely be some time before financial market conditions normalise.
The Bank will continue to adopt measures as needed to maintain the stability of our financial system as far as possible in these difficult times."
Controversial National MP Lockwood Smith is a frontrunner to become Parliament's next Speaker in Prime Minister-elect John Key's new government.
The formation of a new administration is continuing apace, with a new Cabinet expected by Sunday and National's new ministers to be sworn in early next week.
The Press understands that Smith, the party's most senior MP, who got into trouble during the election campaign for saying that Asians had small hands and some Pacific Islanders did not know how to use a toilet, is likely to be the Speaker in the new Parliament.
Such a move would remove Smith from the day-to-day political fray and avoid any repeat of the loose-lipped comments he made on the campaign trail.
It would also provide him with a reward for his seniority and tap into his extensive knowledge of Parliament,
Nov 11, 2008
Biography of Juan Somavia, Director-General
Juan Somavia was elected to serve as the ninth Director-General of the ILO by the Governing Body on 23 March 1998. His five-year term of office began on 4 March 1999, when he became the first representative from the Southern hemisphere to head the organization. In March 2003, Mr. Somavia was re-elected for a second five-year term.
An attorney by profession, Mr. Somavia has had a long and distinguished career in civil and international affairs. His wide experience in all areas of public life - as a diplomat and academic - and his involvement in social development, business and civil organizations have all helped shape his vision of the need to secure decent work for women and men throughout the world. The following is a list of the many positions he held in the United Nations and other inter-governmental organizations before joining the ILO:
1990-99: Permanent Representative of Chile to the United Nations in New York;
1993-94, 1998-99: President of the United Nations Economic and Social Council;
1996-97: Representative of Chile on the United Nations Security Council, including President of the Security Council in April 1996 and October 1997;
1993-95: Chairman of the Preparatory Committee for the World Summit for Social Development, Copenhagen;
1991-92: Chairman of the Social Committee of the United Nations Economic and Social Council;
1990-91: Chairman of the United Nations Third Committee on Social, Humanitarian and Cultural Affairs;
1970-73: Executive Secretary of the Latin American Free Trade Association in Chile; Ambassador of Chile to the Andean Group; Member and Chairman of the Governing Body of the Andean Group;
1968-70: Ambassador and Adviser to the Foreign Minister of Chile on Economic and Social Affairs, responsible for multilateral issues including the ILO.
Since taking office in 1999, Mr. Somavia has taken up the challenge that the rapidly changing economy presents to the ILO. In 1999, he submitted his Decent Work Agenda to the International Labour Conference, which was subsequently endorsed by the Governing Body and the Conference. The work of the Office has been reorganized around four strategic objectives that make it possible to establish targets and indicators to measure progress and provide the basis of accountability.
Mr. Somavia began his career as an academic. From 1967-68, he was lecturer on economic and social issues for GATT's trade policy courses in Geneva. In 1971, he was appointed Professor of International Economic and Social Affairs in the Department of Political Sciences at the Catholic University of Chile, where he highlighted the ILO and its tripartite structure as a case study in international cooperation. Between 1976 and 1990, he was Founder, Executive Director and President of the Latin American Institute of Transnational Studies (ILET), during which time he undertook a number of studies on trade union and social movements in Mexico City and Santiago. From 1996-99, Mr. Somavia was Chairman of the Board of the United Nations Research for Social Development (UNRISD). Throughout his career, he has written and lectured widely on trade issues and labour and human rights and holds numerous citations and awards for his work in the areas of peace, human rights and social development.
Mr. Somavia has always shown a strong interest in development cooperation and economic and social affairs. During the late 1960s, while working in GATT, he promoted the participation of developing countries in the Kennedy Round. From 1970-73, Mr. Somavia served as Member and Chairman of the Board of the Andean Development Corporation in Caracas and worked intensively in favour of regional integration. He was also a Member of the Executive Committee of the International Foundation for Development Alternatives in Nyon, Switzerland from 1977-95 and has been on the Advisory Committee of Development Dialogue (published by the Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation) for more than 25 years.
Mr. Somavia participated actively in the restoration of democracy in Chile. Not only was he President of the International Commission of the Democratic Coalition in Chile but also founder and Secretary-General of the South American Peace Commission (1986-90). For his contribution to peace and human rights, he was awarded the "Leonides Proano Peace Prize" by the Latin American Human Rights Association.
Mr. Somavia has been involved in business, financial and civil society organizations for many years. As Executive Secretary of the Chilean-Argentinian Chamber of Commerce he strengthened ties between the business communities in both countries. From 1976-82, Mr. Somavia was Coordinator of the Third World Forum, a network of African, Asian, Latin American and Caribbean social actors. He was also a member of the Board and Vice President for Latin America of the Third World News Agency, Interpress Service (1976-82) based in Rome. Together with Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Nobel Prize winner, Mr. Somavia represented Latin America as a Member of the MacBride Commission on International Communications (1980-82). Finally, he has served as Chairman of the United Nations Committee of Paliamentarians for Global Action.
Born on 21 April 1941, Mr. Somavia's early schooling took place in Chile, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United States and Ecuador. In 1958, he returned to his country to read law at the Catholic University of Chile. After graduating in 1962, he continued higher studies in economic development at the School of Law and Economics at the University of Paris. Mr. Somavia was made Laurea Honoris Causa in political sciences by the University of Turin in November 2001 and awarded a Doctorate Honoris Causa by the University of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne in May 2003.
Mr. Somavia is married to Adriana Santa Cruz and they have two children.
Labour and New Zealand First got $100,000 donations from fishing and racing industry heavyweights the Vela brothers in the 10 days before the election.
Both parties yesterday disclosed donations of $100,000 from Resource Finance, a company set up by brothers Peter and Philip Vela in 1999 and registered to the Velas' business address in Hamilton.
It follows controversy over donations from Vela companies to NZ First dating back to 1999 that the party did not disclose.
NZ First was cleared of wrongdoing by police, the Electoral Commission and the Serious Fraud Office but was told to update its returns.
Under new Electoral Finance Act rules, donations worth more than $20,000 have to be disclosed within two weeks.
Labour president Mike Williams said Peter Vela contacted him to offer the money. Mr Williams had not known about the donation to New Zealand First.
"He was very definite about wanting to make a contribution, and I accepted."
Mr Williams said there were no conditions to the donation, and he had explained to Mr Vela that his name would become public.
Labour got the money from Resource Finance on October 31, the same day it also received $60,000 from the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union.
Labour told the Electoral Commission of the EPMU donation on November 5, but did not tell it about the Vela donation until yesterday, two days after the election but still within the disclosure deadline.
Mr Williams said this was not an attempt to keep a potentially controversial donation out of the public eye until after the election.
He said he had not known about the EPMU donation, which would have gone directly to Labour's head office rather than to him.
What is different is Helen Clark. She did the honourable thing for her party and country, unlike Muldoon who refused to cooperate during the changeover and who stayed on to be a disruptive influence within his part for far too long.
The front page of the NZ herald today reminds us all how much things have changed in just three days. Three days ago it was possible for vested interests to pay large sums of money to Labour and NZ First, knowing that there would be policy favours in return and knowing that there would be support at the highest level to keep the secrets buried.
While we don't want to dwell in the past we think it essential that we learn from what has taken place in the last 10 years. We need some form of commission to investigate corruption. We need to know what really went on in the Ministry of Fisheries over hoki and scampi quota allocation. we need to know why NZ First kicked up such a fuss, and then went totally silent, indeed made it their task to neuter an enquiry that they had fought hard to have set up. And we need to have a full investigation into the funding of the racing industry, and the impact that the policies that Winston Peters forced through had on horse valuations .
If the Helen Clark led hydra had won this election and if Winston peters had been returned to Parliament we would have seen many of our best and brightest packing their bags and heading for Auckland Airport.
Now we will see a much smaller exodus. There will be a few Winston funders heading to joining Ross Meurant offshore, and we suspect that Helen Clark and Heather Simpson will be offshore pretty fast also. Helen might be sponsored by the Government to depart. Heather will be off to the ILO or some other job within months. Indeed we don't rule out a reunion of H1 and H2 in Geneva sometime within the next 12 months. Watch this space.
When the histories are written one theme will be the tragedy of this last 3 years for the Labour Party. We believe that Helen Clark has been in active negotiation over a job outside New Zealand for over a year and that it was never her intention to see the next three years out. If Clark had stood down a year and a half ago and handed over to Goff and King, Labour would have been competitive at the election. People wanted change, but if this had been delivered before the election, they might have been willing to look more at the issues. Goff and King would have been able to have some say over who was selected to run this election also. Now they have inherited a caucus full of Clark sycophants. There are some excellent people - such as Grant Robertson, but they could have done much better. As the Herald Editorial notes today, Goff has no obvious successor in the current caucus. Some speculate that Andrew Little might be the man of the future, but he is showing some reluctance to associate with the mess that is now Labour. Moreover, with Annette King staying on, the obvious Parliamentary entry point for Andrew (Rongotai) is closed off. We can't see him wanting to move to Mt Eden.
We will post further on some of these themes, but felt the need to get them out of our system!
We hope that this move to the right will mean that we can move to more of a political consensus on areas of policy such as energy and climate change. It would send a strong signal to business and the world of Labour can support improvements to the ETS when they are proposed by the Key Government. That suggests that Labour should be a full part of the decision making process on these changes. Offers by National to work towards a consensus on climate change were rebuffed by the previous Government which somehow thought that they could win more votes by painting National as soft on climate change. We hope National will put annoyance over this issue to one side. This should not be a partisan issue. But changes do need to be made to the policy. Far too many changes were made at last minute without consultation.
Nov 10, 2008
What is a bit of a shame is that so little of this package is actually being spent to "green" the industry. Reading the spin you would have thought that every cent was going into the greening.
This also removes one of the comparative advantages that Australia had remaining after the global financial crisis began. Pretty much all OECD Governments had been forced to spend billions bailing out banks. Australia and New Zealand put up some guarantees, but no money - indeed the guarantee schemes might actually generate revenue. Now Australia has gone and blown $6.2 billion to keep the auto industry going.
This from The Australian
THE federal government's $6.2 billion automotive industry package will support jobs at a time of a global financial crisis and into the future, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
The nation needed a green-car industry that would create high-paid, high-skilled green jobs for the future, he said launching the government's new car industry plan in Melbourne today. The plan sets aside $500 million - double the amount recommended by the Bracks review - for a green car innovation fund. It also confirms a reduction in the automotive tariff to 5 per cent will go ahead as planned in 2010. “In the time of global financial crisis the government today has taken further decisive action to support Australian industry, to support Australian jobs, because we believe this industry has a future,” Mr Rudd said. “We take decisive action to build an international, competitive green economy for the future. “Australia needs a green car industry that manufacturers the fuel efficient, low-emissions vehicles of the future and creates the well paid, high skilled green jobs of the future.” The choice was not between having a growing economy in the short-term and a green economy in the medium to long-term. “We can work effectively to develop both, and that's what a large part of today's package is all about. The automotive industry was part of Australia's future, Mr Rudd said. Building a low-emissions economy was the next step in the government's response to the global financial crisis. “By implementing a green investment strategy today we can transform our industry and create green jobs for tomorrow,” he said. “It's a future in which we should have absolute confidence - fuel-efficient technologies, low-emissions technologies, better designed and safer vehicles.” Australia could be world leader in green car technology, Mr Rudd said. The automotive industry faced a whole new set of market, economic and environmental changes and challenges. “The domestic market for cars has become more fragmented. Australian car makers do battle in a very crowded field, with 60 other car brands, Mr Rudd said. “Consumer preferences have shifted away from sedans, to both smaller vehicles on the one hand and four-wheel drives on the other.” Higher petrol prices had driven consumer demands for more fuel-efficient vehicles, he said. Mr Rudd said the automotive industry had a key role to play in climate change and faced a complicated set of industry challenges. “Some might say it's not worth trying to have a car industry, that is not my view, it is not the view of the Australian government and it never will be the view of any government which I lead,” he said. “I don't believe that car making is yesterday's business or something better left to the Germans and the Japanese. “But I also don't believe that industry policy is about 'saving' the automotive industry, it's about helping to transform the industry to meet the challenges of the future. “It's not about passive assistance, it's about active support for innovation and change.”
Carbon crash hits Europe's emission trading scheme
Carl Mortished November 06, 2008
WHILE you were distracted by crashing banks and clashing US senators, you may have missed a small environmental earthquake.
The price of carbon has collapsed.
In only three months, life has become a lot cheaper for polluters. The financial cost of warming the planet has plummeted in Europe's emissions trading system (ETS) and the effectiveness of such a volatile market mechanism in curbing carbon is being questioned.
You may recall that the ETS is a mechanism to encourage businesses to reduce their carbon output. Europe's larger companies are allocated permits to emit CO2, and these allowances, called EUAs, can be traded on exchanges.
Companies that emit less CO2 than their allocation can sell EUAs for cash, but inefficient polluters must buy EUAs or face financial penalties.
The idea is that a shortfall in EUAs allocated by governments will cause the carbon price to rise, stimulating investment in carbon reduction.
It's a market solution to pollution, but this carbon market is showing a distressing tendency to behave like most financial markets -- hysterically. In July, the right to spew out one tonne of CO2 from a chimney would have cost a power generator E29.33, but yesterday it could be bought for only E18.25 ($34.14).
The sudden collapse of the carbon price mirrors the rout in the wider commodity markets. Carbon peaked in July, its price summit occurring within 10 days of the peak in the crude oil price.
Since then, everything from steel to potash has been tumbling and you might think it unsurprising that carbon has tracked the general retreat. Hedge funds and other financial investors dabbled in EUAs as they fiddled with palm oil and soya.
The rush to convert hedge fund investments into cash and US Treasury bills has resulted in rapid closure of positions on various carbon exchanges.
Obviously, the credit crunch has little to do with underlying demand for EUAs in a market artificially created by regulators in Brussels. However, economic downturn and recession will affect the carbon market.
Less industrial and transport activity implies fewer emissions, so the shortfall between actual emissions and allowances will shrink, reducing demand for EUAs, thereby causing the carbon price to fall.
Some analysts reckon the carbon price has fallen far enough, even allowing for a recession. IDEAcarbon, a rating agency, has halved its estimate of the allocation shortfall from 206 million tonnes of carbon to 98 million tonnes in 2008 and 83 million tonnes in 2009.
The point is that there will still be a shortfall. Societe Generale reckons EUAs will find a floor at E15 per tonne before rebounding next year into the low E20s per tonne.
Maybe so, but the ETS is making a mockery of Europe's stumbling attempts to lead the world with a market-based carbon strategy. It is causing irritation and frustration to the armies of advisers and investors who seek to cajole utilities into big investments in carbon reduction.
James Cameron, the director of Climate Change Capital, a financial adviser and fund manager, said: "The whole purpose of the ETS is to take carbon out. It's not there to benefit funds or to support trading."
It's those "speculators" again -- the ones that pushed the oil price up the hill to $US147 a barrel and then let it roll back to $US60.
It is a terrible irony that one aim of creating a carbon market was to provide a measure of certainty to the energy industry in estimating the future price of carbon for the purpose of planning investments in new power generators.
Estimates of the price at which carbon capture and storage technology might be economically viable vary between E40 and E60 a tonne. Suffice it to say we are nowhere near these levels.
More political action is needed, Cameron says, with smaller carbon allocations by governments to industry, which would entail a much bigger shortfall in EUAs and a much higher carbon price.
It is a moot point, however, whether there is political appetite in Europe for such a burden. The European Commission is already struggling to create a coalition of the willing to do battle with carbon emissions, and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has made clear his preference for a gentle regime.
It's a measure of the speed at which politics moves in response to market prices that the green agenda has almost vanished from media political chatter.
Carbon's falling price spells companies going bust, the loss of jobs and the shredding of political reputations. Over the next year, no politician with re-election hopes will back a policy that would triple the price of carbon for industry and raise consumers' energy costs. There is a wider question about the ETS that must be addressed, and that is whether it is a sensible mechanism to regulate carbon.
Price volatility, whether in oil, gas or coal, is a huge burden for the energy industry. Violent movements in price cause financial damage and promote short-termism -- the sort of thinking that is anathema to the climate change lobby.
If there is to be any prospect of a serious cut in carbon, there must be stability in carbon pricing. Although a financial market gives useful price signals, it cannot provide stability.
Only a stable regulatory regime can provide certainty, but that means carbon taxes and a policy leap that no one is yet willing to make.
1. Meet leaders of Act, United Future and Maori Party over next two days, with first caucus meeting tomorrow morning.
2. Get economic briefing mid-week from Treasury and Reserve Bank.
3. Legislate by Christmas for further tax cuts. Next tax cuts to be on April 1 next year, then two more rounds on April 1, 2010 and 2011.
4. Instruct by Christmas that breast cancer drug Herceptin be available for 12-month course.
5. Call in public service chief executives, instruct them to undertake a review of all spending with a focus on finding savings. Establish "razor gang" type group to oversee review.
6. Request full December fiscal update from Treasury.
7. Legislate - if necessary - by Christmas for transitional package to help people who lose jobs in economic downturn.
8. Quickly introduce bill to reform Resource Management Act, aim to pass it within six months.
9. Prioritise law and order legislation for first readings.
10. Send Emissions Trading Scheme back to select committee, pass revised version within 9 months.
What does this say about Dave's faith in the ETS?
The resignation was in well before the election by the way.
Australia's federal opposition says new Zealand's strong policy on climate change was a driving fcator behind Labour's loss. The coalition's infrastructure spokesman Andrew Robb said New Zealand had moved too far ahead of the rest of the world too quickly.
Mr Key, 47, made it clear a top international posting was Miss Clark's if she wanted it, saying there was a precedent and that her international standing merited such a move.
There used to be no troubles getting the hard copy Herald in Wellington CBD by 0730. Now you are lucky to have it by 1030.
Luckily today, the Dominion Post is an interesting read.
She reports that Goff, Cunliffe and Shane Jones are meeting. Shane is very busy on the phone. Could he be Goff's numbers man?
Cunliffe will be pledging full support to Goff.
We will report any further news from Agent 69.
- She will do an excellent job;
- She will enjoy it;
- She will be a star performer on the Washington Diplomatic circuit;
- She will do a much better job at forging links with an Obama Administration than would Don Brash;
- We disagree with those (you know who you are) who say her hubby will be a liability. We are not sure he would want to go, but if he did he would be able to further his academic research in the US in a way that would be both useful for him and New Zealand. He will be fine at cocktail parties and Diplomatic dinners (those questioning his abilities at yesterday's BBQ have not seen him in action - we have);
- If Helen's long term plan is to find a position with an international organisation, then she will be better placed in Washington to pursue these opportunities than from the back benches of the New Zealand Parliament. Of course New York would be even better in this regard. Has there been an announcement on Rosemary Bank's replacement? Rosemary is talking about a departure reasonably early next year which would be a good fit............
In summary, this appointment would be good for Helen, good for new Zealand and good for the world.
We think that the best choice for Labour is Street. Smart and hard working she provides gender balance, factional balance, geographic balance, and will also appeal to the rainbow faction. Small could easily have found Party members saying "white heterosexual males from West Auckland".....
Labour will probably seek a balance of left and right as well as taking gender, ethnicity and geography into account. That means Mr Goff and Mr Cunliffe - "white males from West Auckland", as one party source put it - may not provide the right mix. Others said a Goff-King ticket would be logical but would raise eyebrows because they were both from the Right "faction".
Insiders pointed to former Labour Party president Maryan Street, Climate Change Minister David Parker, Building Issues Minister Shane Jones or one of the left-leaning Christchurch MPs, Lianne Dalziel or Ruth Dyson, as other options. A "wild card" could be well-performed Tainui MP Nanaia Mahuta.
Nov 9, 2008
Goff/Street was the most common take on the Labour leadership contest. One commentator suggested that Cunliffe realises that winning a general election might be beyond him, so he doesn't want to put his hat in the ring. Several commented on his relative under performance in his New Lynn seat this time around.
On the National side, there seemed strong support for involving the Maori Party in some way in government. Intensive talks with other parties are due over the next day or so with the new Cabinet line-up perhaps being announced as early as Wednesday.
John Key is keen to go to APEC. This would mean that we will need a very speedy transition. We would have thought that this would suit Labour and PM Clark fine.
Her personal majority was 5,545 and she brought the party vote home for Labour also - 14,350 to 11,259.
Cunliffe, as a result of boundary changes had a majority of 11,936 - the biggest in the country in 2005. Last night it was cut to around 3,400. Who by? The policy wonk Tim Groser. Groser also managed to win the party vote for National - 12,634 to 12,221.
What does that say? OK Groser must have campaigned well. But it also suggests that Cunliffe is not as well loved by the Labour faithful as some suggest.
By comparison Annette King had a huge win of Finlayson - 17,204 to 9,358 and Goff won 16,350 to 10,793. King kept Rongotai voting Labour on the party vote also - 14,006 to 10,396. Goff narrowly lost the party vote to National 12,578 to 12,429.
This is going to be a period of major change for Labour - a leadership contest, and generational shift. And for the first time in ages, we think will be seeing some by elections. Mt Albert and Rongotai would be our picks. Those who missed out on seats but who just missed out on the list - eg Judith could well find there way back into Parliament quite fast - should they want to be there. We can't see Cullen hanging around, and others might want to go also.
The PM has done the right thing for Labour. A contest will be difficult, but a series of plots to unseat Clark would have been even worse.
Radical idea from The Hive to John Key. There are no obvious jobs for Helen in the UN system at present. Why not do a Bolger? Helen would be a wonderful Ambassador in Washington as Obama takes over there. While it might be tempting to send Brash there instead, wouldn't it be better to ask Don to serve in some other way? His skill set is rare and directly relevant to the response to the financial crisis. We would ask him to hang around in New Zealand for a while.
Goff v. Cunliffe. Game on. This is going to be fun to watch.
Nov 8, 2008
Good luck National and ACT.
This is going to be a very tough 3 years.
Lets hope we can move to a true consensus on the response to the financial crisis and climate change. If it can work for foreign and trade policy why not other areas.
NZ First 4.23
In terms of seats
National 59 seats
ACT 5 seats
United 1 seat
Maori 5 seats
Labour 43 seats
When is Helen going to do the honourable thing?
Winston is gone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ever since the KMT came to power in May, one of the primary goals of the Ma administration has been to mend the Taiwan-US relations, which had deteriorated over the past years because of former President Chen Shui-bian’s capricious and provocative cross-Strait policies.
Now, the US government has shown its willingness to strengthen ties with Taiwan, though economically. It is reported that the US government has sent a message to President Ma Ying-jeou through the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) stating that it wanted to restore the mutual visits of ministerial-level economic/trade officials between the two countries.
Yesterday, President Ma Ying-jeou convened a meeting to discuss the matter with top officials from the National Security Council, the Council of Agriculture, the Department of Health, and the Ministry of Economic Affairs.Taiwan and the US signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement in 1994, the purpose of which was to solve trade problems and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries. The ministerial-level economic/trade officials had often visited each other’s countries before. However, such visits gradually came to a near halt during Chen Shui-bian’s eight-year rule.
“During the KMT rule, the US ministerial-level economic/trade officials paid visits to Taiwan many times. However, the Taiwan-US ties came to a standstill after the DPP came to power. In the last few years, the top economic/trade official to visit Taiwan was Kara Bhatia, then Deputy US Trade Representative,” said a senior Taiwan diplomat.
We were therefore very pleased to read a snippet of good news on this front. We have been able to track down fuller details which we repeat below. Longer term we hope that China and Taiwan take fuller advantage of the fact that both are members of the WTO. There is much of an official naature that can be done under this cover.
China, Taiwan sign deals on closer economic ties
3 days ago
TAIPEI (AFP) — Taiwan and China Tuesday signed a range of deals aimed at bringing the two sides closer economically, after almost 60 years of hostilities that often took them to the brink of war.
Officials from the two sides were shown live on television signing four agreements that are potentially worth billions of dollars, after talks that marked a significant warming of ties between the former bitter enemies.
The two sides have agreed to introduce direct cargo shipping and postal services, to add passenger flights and to discuss food security in the wake of health problems caused by poisonous Chinese food imports.
Tourism cooperation was also part of the talks, which took place Tuesday morning in Taipei's Grand Hotel between Beijing's envoy Chen Yunlin, head of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, and Chiang Pin-kung, his local counterpart as head of the Strait Exchange Foundation.
Television footage showed the two men shaking hands as they held copies of the signed agreements bound in red silk brocade.
Chiang then presented Chen with a large framed painting with eight Chinese characters, in black on a gold background that read: "Peace agreement for a win-win situation."
Chen reciprocated with a crystal sculpture of a handshake, which he said symbolised peace and cooperation.
The two sides have agreed to treble direct passenger flights to 108 per week and expand services to a total of 21 Chinese cities, up from the current five.
The deals will introduce cargo flights, with up to 60 round trips per month crossing the 180-kilometre- (112-mile-) Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China.
Chiang told reporters after the signing ceremony that both sides were happy to have reached the agreements "as expected".
He said Taiwan's current government had completed negotiations on air and shipping links begun by the previous administration of the anti-China Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Direct air links would cut fuel costs for airlines by 40-50 percent, he said, adding: "It will greatly boost Taiwan's competitiveness."
Direct cargo links would cut shipping costs by 15-30 percent, he said, with the time of each journey shortened by up to 27 hours, depending on which Chinese port Taiwan's ship are going to.
Currently flights between the two territories have to pass through foreign airspace. Ships have to traverse another country's waters.
They also agreed to cooperate on food safety in the wake of a number of international scandals involving toxic Chinese food.
The issue has caused widespread alarm on the island, after a woman and three children were poisoned by Chinese milk, and the industrial chemical melamine was found in dairy products from China, all of which have since been banned.
The agreements, which analysts have said could be worth billions of dollars over the long term, mark a step forward in the relationship between the two sides.
Beijing formally still claims sovereignty over the island, which split from China when the nationalist Kuomintang lost the civil war and fled to Taiwan. The Chinese government has vowed to retake the island, by force if necessary.
The KMT government of President Ma Ying-jeou won office earlier this year on a platform of closer ties with China in order to improve the island's sluggish economy.
The policy has drawn widespread criticism in Taiwan , where many people fear that their island is being slowly drawn into a tight economic embrace by China, which will lead to an erosion of freedoms and lifestyle.
While Ma's election victory ended eight years of frosty relations across the Taiwan Strait when he beat the DPP's pro-independence Chen Shui-bian, his popularity has waned in the months leading up to this week's talks.
He has promised that he is not "selling out" Taiwan to China, but DPP supporters have said they fear closer economic ties will lead to an influx of Chinese who could take their jobs.
Nick sees the opportunites as bottomless. We agree. And we are not sure that we have the right strategy.
China is a bottomless well of opportunity for Kiwi exporters, reports Nick Churchouse.
You have only to fly into Shanghai's Pudong Airport to understand the true meaning of scale.
A third runway and second terminal completed in March give the airport about 1.5 million square metres of tarmac.
From there it is 90 minutes by car into the central city, through an urban ocean that is home to 19 million people. A short distance from Shanghai is the rural municipality of Chongqing, encompassing 31 million people, in itself larger than 83 per cent of the countries on the planet.
For New Zealand exporters, China is a bottomless well of opportunity. As the first developed country in the world to establish a free trade agreement with the vast nation, there is a lot of hope.
Whatever you may have thought about John McCain's running mate -- about whether she was qualified, prepared or experienced enough for the job -- try to put all of that aside for just a moment, because Sarah Palin is who she is.
She did not become measurably more intelligent or measurably less intelligent during this campaign. Remember, she was only part of the campaign for a matter of nine weeks.
Sarah Palin is who she is, which is why I find it so stunning that the very people who introduced us to her, who told us she would make a great vice president, have now turned on her with a vengeance.
They are the top advisers to John McCain's failed campaign and they are desperate to find someone to blame for their long, long list of mistakes. They have been launching grenades at Palin and her supporters. CNN has found some of their allegations to be patently false. iReport.com: What's next for Sarah Palin?
You will hear people say, "This is what always happens with a losing campaign," and hopefully, this is the last time we will be talking about these people. But what they have done just in the last few days to save their own skins is worth a final comment.
To those top McCain advisers who leaked the little story about seeing Sarah Palin in a towel; to those who called her and her family "Wasilla hillbillies" while using her to stoke class warfare with red meat speeches and an anti-elitist message; to those who claim she didn't know Africa was a continent; to those McCain aides who say she is the reason they lost this election: Can I please remind you of one thing? You picked her.
You are the ones who supposedly vetted her, and then told the American people she was qualified for the job. You are the ones who, after meeting her a couple of times, told us she was ready to be just one heartbeat away from the presidency.
If even half of what you say now is true, then boy, did you try to sell the American people a bill of goods. If Sarah Palin is the reason some voters chose Barack Obama, that is no one's fault but your own.
John McCain, as he so graciously said himself the other night, lost this election. He lost it with your help, your advice, your guidance, and yes, your running mate recommendations. And that is crystal clear to everyone, no matter how hard you try to blame Sarah Palin or anyone else.
Relatives of a dementia patient in a Christchurch rest home were shocked to discover the woman, who cannot recognise her own family, had voted in the election.
A family friend said a young family member was surprised to find the rest home resident wearing a badge proclaiming "I voted today".
The woman could not remember voting.
Alzheimer's NZ national director Lucille Ogston said there were many people living with mild dementia in the community who made "excellent decisions every day" and were competent to vote.
"But if we're talking about someone who no longer recognises loved ones, that's a whole different level of impairment ... If someone is having to tick the boxes for them, I suppose that's open to manipulation."
However, chief electoral officer Robert Peden said there was no obligation for receiving officers electoral workers sent out to collect special votes in rest homes and hospitals to decide if someone was actually competent to vote.
"As long as someone is registered to vote and can mark the paper themselves, or instruct someone on how they want it marked, they can vote."
Government officials and academic North Korea watchers have received intelligence suggesting that Chang Sung Taek, a 62-year old who runs the totalitarian state’s secret police, is making key decisions while the “Dear Leader” convalesces.
They believe that Mr Kim is conscious and probably capable of walking, but that he remains weak after what appears to have been a sudden stroke suffered in the middle of August.
Despite the fact that Mr Kim has not formally named anyone to succeed him to the leadership of North Korea and its million-strong, nuclear-equipped army, the Government appears to be functioning normally for the time being with no obvious signs of instability.
“Chang Sung Taek is now in control and is leading North Korea,” said Choi Jin Wook, of the government-affiliated Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. “Other important figures consulted him, even when Kim Jong Il was OK. He will keep Kim Jong Il’s policy line even if he dies.”
Apart from his family connection to Mr Kim, Mr Chang is a cosmopolitan among North Korean cadres whose career bounced back from the brink of disaster just two years ago.
According to South Korea’s ministry of unification, he was educated at an elite school in Pyongyang, and married Mr Kim’s younger sister, Kim Kyong Hui, after studying in Moscow for three years.
He rose through the hierarchy to become head of the most powerful bureau of the Korean Workers’ Party’s, the “organisation and guidance department”. His older brother was the army general responsible for the defence of the capital itself.
In 2002, two years after a historic summit meeting between North and South, he led a delegation of senior officials on an unprecedented tour of South Korean industrial sites.
The most senior North Korean defector to the South, the former chief ideologue, Hwang Jang Yop, spoke of him as a potential successor to Mr Kim after a coup, and said that he was especially close to Kim Jong Nam, the dictator’s eldest son.
Perhaps because of his growing influence, Mr Chang was abruptly purged in 2004, and sent into internal exile. He reappeared in 2006 and last year a new and powerful post was created for him: head of the Party’s “administrative department”, in charge of the courts, the prosecutors, and the police – including those responsible for internal spying.
Nov 7, 2008
We will be blogging live from 1900 tomorrow until we know the final result in the election.
Who is going to win?
Well maybe we should leave the last word to our taxi driver tonight. He thought that there will be a landslide to National/ACT.
Why we asked?
He said that his customers were really angry about the following things:
- $800,000 on the pledge card;
- Retrospective legislation;
- The eelectoral finance act;
- ETS and all these lies about carbon footprint;
- Labour's support for Winston Peters.
He also thought that Labour would not be able to manage an alliance of many parties pulling in all directions. This worried him because we need to borrow money from the world. Why would the world lend to an unstable country with anti- business policies? Who else is applying an ETS to all sectors and all gases?
We thanked our driver for the ride and gave him a bit of a tip....He understands NZ politics very well.
Vote wisely New Zealand.
Back on line tomorrow middayish with international coverage. Election results from 1900.
Should you be interested you can read the full result here.
Here is the summary:
On the eve of the 2008 Election the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 42% (down 1%), a 7.5% lead over the Labour Party at 34.5% (up 2.5%).
The MMP system used to elect Parliament means the next Government is likely to be a Coalition led by the National Party with support from ACT NZ, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party. The alternative is a Labour Party led Coalition with support from the Greens, NZ First and the Maori Party.
Support for the Greens 10% (down 1.5%) is near its record high of 11.5%, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 4% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (98.3 points, up 1.3 points) has risen slightly after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 1% to 6.5%.
"Instead of "transforming" the economy to make it leaner and fitter, Labour has pushed the economy to one of the most at-risk.
It condoned a housing bubble that in turn raised household debt in an unsustainable consumer boom.
Instead of greater prudence, lower taxes and savings policies not based on cash incentives, costs were allowed to rise on the back of a raft of local and central government impositions."
Fair summary. Who do you trust to manage the economy through tough eceonomic times?
We guess it is in keeping with today's Boobs on Bikes Parade and the opening of the Capital's first sex expo.........................
Those thinking of voting for Labour must ask whether its experience in managing the economy outweighs the fumbles and arrogance of nine years in office.
Another poll, another nail in the coffin of Labour's hopes for a fourth term.
Today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll is sounding the death knell for Helen Clark's Government, matched by the results of TV One and TV3 surveys last night.
These results slay what John Key described as a "five-headed monster". The idea that Labour and the Greens, "plus friends", including a deal with the Maori Party, could pull this election out of the pyre was briefly given oxygen by a brilliant campaign launch.
Even a fortnight ago the Government still dared to hope, buoyed by a couple of polls that put Labour's bloc within reach of National.
But it would require a poll- defying reversal by voters tomorrow, amid signs that even ACT is starting to rise, as the right- wingers in National have granted themselves the luxury of voting with their hearts.
If, as expected, Labour cops a trouncing it can put it down to a handful of errors during the campaign that exacerbated its existing problems: the world economic meltdown, growing unemployment and the electorate's fatigue with a nine-year government.
The first error was the decision to run all three televised debates face to face. Miss Clark clearly thought she could better the inexperienced John Key, but he proved more resilient than she imagined. At the same time she gave him several hours of "face time" with voters who had not been exposed to him before.
And she ruled out attacks that would have put him on the defensive – and would have crowded out his message – from the wit of Winston Peters, the experience of Jim Anderton, and the palpable integrity of Jeanette Fitzsimons.
The second mistake was the failure, after an initial flurry, to drive home the big policy negative for National – its attack on KiwiSaver and the skewing of its tax-cut package toward higher earners.
The third was letting out of the bag Labour Party president Mike Williams' trip to Melbourne to "dig dirt" on Mr Key, and the last was running the "trust" theme – initially useful in casting doubt about Mr Key – for too long.
Mr Keizer said his sister's partner Stephen Day, who works as an adviser for the Green Party at Parliament, had nothing to do with his actions.
Green Party co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Russel Norman moved quickly yesterday to distance themselves from Mr Keizer's activities.
"The Green Party believes in transparency and honesty. We do not condone the secret taping of private conversations," they said.
Post election we want a full enquiry launched into the Green Party's links with international environmental groups, funding sources, and the pursuit of "the green agenda" to make this economy less competitive internationally. The media might like to start on this now.
Expect more of these desperate tactics from the Labour/Green Axis unless there is leadership change within the Labour Party. It must be very hard for Phil Goff and Lianne Dalziel to campaign this election.
First the NZ Herald DigiPoll
And we have a Fairfax Poll
Today's Fairfax-Nielsen poll shows National has opened up an 18-point lead - 49 per cent support compared with Labour's 31 per cent - and a last-minute surge in support for ACT would put John Key in a position to pick his new Cabinet.
Helen Clark is reported to scoff at this poll but The Hive has been reporting since Tuesday that the gap has been as high as 19. That is based on internal party polling.
What does this mean?
National is poised to sweep into power.
According to three new polls, the country is on the verge of tipping out nine years of Labour government.
Nov 6, 2008
National 46.0% (+0.0%)
Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
United Future 0.2% (nc)
ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
Progressive 0.3% (nc)
NZ First 0
United Future 1
This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Winnie has had a tough year with her fight against cancer. She has continued to work hard for her constituency and New Zealand. She wants to make this a better place. It is a great shame she has not been a Minister inside Cabinet. Cabinet could have done with her wisdom.
Well done Winnie. We think you will hold Mana.
Read all about it on Hooton, and on Kiwiblog.....
"True. Cameron Slater is the Karl Rove of NZ politics. On a side note, and i hope i don’t get burnt for this but I need your help Standardista’s....."
So instead of Farrar this avid reader of The Standard suggests that none other than Whaleoil is New Zealand's Karl Rove.
We are not sure that we agree with either of these names. Labour's campaign strategist for this election is Helen Clark. Nothing happens in this campaign that she doesn't know about or orchestrate. If she manages to win on Saturday, then sorry, Whale and Farrar - Helen will be New Zealand's Karl Rove - she will have pulled off the near impossible!!
TT's sister publication the Main report got the US election pretty right last Friday.
TT senses a mood for change...
We can't resist drawing reader attention to the following which shows how well TT is informed about what goes on inside Government departments and how well connected it is to the Diplomatic corps. We have felt for a while that Helen's support for Peters and the rushing through of the ETS are the main reasons why Labour might lose power on Saturday:
If Labour loses office this weekend, how much blame will be ascribed to Helen Clark’s embrace of NZ First and Winston Peters? The senior ranks of Clark’s Cabinet have been notable for their water-tight loyalty. But as nerves were stretched even tighter, the leaks are starting and it’s evident that many chafed under the indulgences granted Peters. Most angst attached to his status as Minister outside Cabinet. Ministers were aware this made the Govt look foolish overseas, as if the portfolio ranked near bottom in Govt priorities. How could the Foreign Minister not sit at the Cabinet table? Who argued his submissions? Many of Trade Minister Phil Goff’s international counterparts were dismayed the energetic and capable Minister had been sidelined, until the machinations were explained to them. Some think this is one reason for the trenchant in-house criticism of Peter’s $600m “Step Change” boost to MFAT funding. Murray McCully has flagged this will be subjected to heavy pruning under National, while Michael Cullen, whose books are drenched with red ink, will have the scalpel ready.
What should have been put up is the DigiPoll Survey on economic leadership from today's NZ Herald.
National is a clear favourite to best steer the economy through an international downturn, according to a new Herald-DigiPoll survey taken just days out from the election.
The economy is at the forefront of voters' minds - ranking well ahead of other issues such as law and order, leadership and tax cuts as the issue most likely to influence votes on Saturday.
When asked whether a Labour-led government or a National-led one would better handle the New Zealand economy as the world faces a downturn, 49.6 per cent of respondents gave John Key's party their support.
Helen Clark's Labour was behind on 40.7 per cent - an 8.9-point gap that is not enormous but is larger than what has been seen in some earlier polls that have asked the same or a similar question. The rest - 9.7 per cent - either didn't know or refused to answer the question.
It feels like it is all over, red rover.
The shouting won't stop completely until campaigning has to come to a halt tomorrow evening. But rarely has the final week of an election campaign been so flat and devoid of any sense of a fight. Rarely has it seemed as if everyone is now merely going through the motions until Saturday finally rolls around.
That was the case before the last act of the American presidential election relegated its New Zealand counterpart way down yesterday's news bulletins.
The feeling of fait accompli was apparent before today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, which has a clear majority of voters rating a National-led Government as better equipped than Labour to handle the economy, with even more voters thinking National is going the win the election.
The prevailing mood was summed up by a reporter's question to John Key yesterday: Did he sense a landslide? The reporter wasn't talking about a Labour one.
Key wisely declined to take the bait.
Nov 5, 2008
PM perhaps a bit too subdued, but did not appear to be a winner.
Key conveyed more hope.
There is no way Key lost.
And in that context Helen probably lost.
She needed a huge win to pull back 19 points.
Well done Mark Sainsbury.
Anyone else notice the praise for FORMER PM Jim Bolger?
Anyone else notice that the chemistry between the two leaders has improved enormously since the first debate?
Could this mean that the PM is preparing for loss and her future? If she does want an international job it will be John Key's call.
Likewise, if the PM wants a few SOE Chairs today's debate is the way to go.
You have given your nation and many in the world hope.
They want change. We hope you can deliver on their expectations.
Please don't look inward. Keep the international trade flowing. Finalise and ratify the KORUS deal. Begin negotiations on Trans Pac. And lets get the WTO Round finished.
We are sure that whoever wins New Zealand's election will be keen to help you achieve the change and leadership the world needs at this time of crisis.